土耳其中央银行行长法提赫·卡拉汉周三表示，资金外流并未显著削弱土耳其居民对里拉计价资产的偏好。
Fund outflows have not significantly weakened Turkish residents’ preference for lira-denominated assets, Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan said Wednesday.
卡拉汉在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会期间，就土耳其的宏观经济前景和货币政策作了演示。
Karahan delivered a presentation on Türkiye’s macroeconomic outlook and monetary policy during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.
“资金外流并未实质性削弱居民对土耳其里拉资产的偏好，”卡拉汉说。“总体而言，居民对土耳其里拉的偏好依然强劲。”卡拉汉表示，积极措施限制了受交易限制的资金可能产生的溢出效应，而紧缩货币政策支撑了对里拉的需求。
“Fund outflows have not materially weakened residents’ preferences for TL assets,” Karahan said. “Residents’ preference for Turkish lira remains robust overall.”Karahan said proactive measures had limited potential spillovers from funds subject to trading restrictions, while tight monetary policy supported demand for the lira.
他重申，央行将维持紧缩政策立场，直到实现物价稳定，通过需求、汇率和预期渠道支持通胀下行。
He reiterated that the bank would maintain its tight policy stance until price stability is achieved, supporting disinflation through demand, exchange rate and expectations channels.
利率决策将考虑实际和预期通胀及其潜在趋势，以确保实现与央行阶段性目标一致的通胀下行路径所需的紧缩程度。
Interest rate decisions would take into account actual and expected inflation, alongside its underlying trend, to ensure the degree of tightness needed for a disinflation path consistent with the bank’s interim targets.
决策将保持审慎，并逐次会议做出；如果通胀前景显著偏离这些目标，将进一步收紧。
Decisions would remain cautious and be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with further tightening if the inflation outlook deviated significantly from those targets.
尽管面临能源压力，潜在通胀仍在放缓 卡拉汉表示，供给侧压力拖慢了通胀下行进程，能源价格今年产生了重大影响。尽管如此，随着疲软的需求缓解了通胀压力，潜在通胀正在放缓。
Underlying inflation moderates despite energy pressures Karahan said supply-side pressures had slowed disinflation, with energy prices exerting a major influence this year. Nevertheless, underlying inflation was moderating as weaker demand cushioned inflationary pressures.
9月年度消费者通胀率为29.7%，低于2024年5月的75.5%。月度潜在通胀从6月的2%降至1.7%。经季节调整的月度服务业通胀为1.85%，为五年来最低水平。
Annual consumer inflation stood at 29.7% in September, down from 75.5% in May 2024. Monthly underlying inflation eased to 1.7% from 2% in June. Seasonally adjusted monthly services inflation stood at 1.85%, its lowest level in five years.
租金通胀正在放缓，领先指标指向进一步缓和。然而，交通和通信价格上涨部分抵消了租金和教育通胀的下降。
Rent inflation was easing, with leading indicators pointing to further moderation. However, increases in transportation and communication prices partly offset declines in rent and education inflation.
卡拉汉表示，通胀预期值得继续保持警惕，而高频指标证实了第三季度国内需求疲弱。宏观审慎政策也支持信贷增长放缓。
Karahan said inflation expectations warranted continued caution, while high-frequency indicators confirmed weak domestic demand in the third quarter. Macroprudential policies also supported slower credit growth.
尽管2026年外部需求前景疲软，但贸易赤字仍保持适度，旅游收入接近去年水平，有助于控制经常账户赤字。
Despite weaker external demand prospects for 2026, the trade deficit remained moderate and tourism revenues were close to last year’s levels, helping contain the current account deficit.
他表示，土耳其的滑动燃油税机制抑制了燃油价格上涨，并补充称，金价波动放大了外汇储备缓冲的波动性。
Türkiye’s sliding-scale fuel tax mechanism had restrained fuel price increases, he said, adding that gold price fluctuations amplified volatility in reserve buffers.