
据知情人士透露,土耳其央行行长法蒂赫·卡拉汉在曼谷的会议上对投资者表示,土耳其正让里拉更快下跌,以防止长期出现更大幅度的疲软。
Turkey is allowing the lira to slide more quickly in order to prevent sharper weakness in the longer term, central bank Governor Fatih Karahan told investors at meetings in Bangkok, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.
知情人士称,卡拉汉表示,货币贬值向通胀的传导效应因经济活动也在减弱而变得更弱,这解释了调整的时机。该人士要求匿名,讨论的是闭门会议的内容。卡拉汉此行是为参加年度国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议而在曼谷。央行拒绝置评。
The pass-through effect of the currency’s depreciation to inflation has gotten weaker because economic activity is also weaker, Karahan said, explaining the timing of the adjustment, the people said, asking not to be named discussing the content of closed-door gatherings. Karahan is in Bangkok for the annual International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings. The central bank declined to comment.
知情人士称,卡拉汉在会议上强调保持可持续货币框架的重要性。该行长指出,他的任期将在2028年2月结束,并表示希望防止任何继任者因需要贬值而抹去迄今为止取得的全部进展。
Karahan emphasized the importance of maintaining a sustainable currency framework in the meetings, the people said. The governor noted that his term ends in February 2028 and said he wants to prevent any successor from feeling the need for a devaluation that would erase all the progress made so far, the people said.
知情人士称,行长还表示,对贬值速度的微调必须确保本地储户和家庭仍然觉得里拉回报具有吸引力。
The governor also said that tweaks to the pace of depreciation need to ensure that local savers and households continue to find lira returns attractive, according to the people.
卡拉汉的央行将里拉的稳步下跌严格管控,作为基于“实际”货币升值的去通胀策略的一部分,这意味着里拉的月度跌幅被控制在月度通胀率以下。
Karahan’s central bank has tightly managed the lira’s steady decline as part of a disinflation strategy based on “real” currency appreciation, meaning that the monthly percentage fall in the lira is kept below the monthly inflation rate.

可预测的货币路径与高利率的结合,通过所谓的“套息交易”吸引了数十亿美元的外资流入土耳其,即投资者以低成本借入一种货币,再投资于利率更高的另一种货币。
The pairing of a predictable currency path with high interest rates has attracted billions of dollars in foreign investment to Turkey via the so-called “carry trade,” in which investors borrow cheaply in one currency and invest in higher interest rates in another.
土耳其的基准利率位居全球最高之列,一周回购利率为37%。年通胀率在9月降至近五年来首次低于30%,部分经济学家预计,卡拉汉下周主持的货币政策委员会会议将下调利率。
Turkey has one of the world’s highest benchmark interest rates, with its one-week repo rate at 37%. Annual inflation slowed to below 30% for the first time in nearly five years in September, and some economists expect that the Monetary Policy Committee will lower the interest rate when Karahan chairs its meeting next week.