标普全球表示，土耳其的紧缩货币立场及其摒弃非正统经济政策支撑了其主权评级，但通胀回落放缓以及临近选举将考验央行维持纪律的决心。
Turkey's tight monetary stance and shift away from unorthodox economic policies underpin its sovereign rating, but slower disinflation and the run-up to elections will test the central bank's commitment to maintaining discipline, S&P Global says.
标普全球中东欧及土耳其主权评级主管兼首席分析师卡伦·瓦尔塔佩托夫表示，该国目前的BB-主权评级、展望稳定，反映了自2023年以来取得的显著进展，当时安卡拉开始扭转多年的超宽松货币政策，该政策旨在不顾通胀飙升也要提振增长。
Karen Vartapetov, S&P Global's director and sovereign lead analyst for Central and Eastern Europe and Turkey, said the country's current BB- sovereign rating with a stable outlook reflects significant progress since 2023, when Ankara began reversing years of ultra-loose monetary policy that was aimed at boosting growth despite surging inflation.
不过，他表示，随着选举临近，目前的紧缩货币和宏观经济政策立场能否持续尚不清楚。总统和议会选举定于2028年5月举行，但官员们表示可能会提前几个月。
However, he said it was unclear how sustainable the current tight monetary and macroeconomic policy stance would prove as elections approach. Presidential and parliamentary votes are scheduled for May 2028 but officials have said they could be held a few months early.
瓦尔塔佩托夫说，能源价格上涨和一连串冲击拖慢了降低通胀的进程，目前年通胀率略低于30%，但国内需求放缓将使央行能够继续专注于去通胀。
Higher energy prices and a succession of shocks have slowed progress in bringing down inflation, currently just below 30% annually, Vartapetov said, but a slowdown in domestic demand will allow the central bank to continue focusing on disinflation.
瓦尔塔佩托夫对路透社表示：“去通胀进程有所延迟，但我们认为并未脱轨。”他援引国内需求疲软、零售销售放缓和信贷增长降温，作为紧缩货币政策正在向经济传导的证据。
"Disinflation has been delayed, but we believe not derailed," Vartapetov told Reuters, citing weakening domestic demand, slowing retail sales and lower credit growth as evidence that tight monetary policy is feeding through to the economy.
在9月环比通胀数据低于预期后，央行周四将关键利率下调至36%，此前已连续五次政策会议维持利率在37%不变。
The bank cut its key interest rate to 36% on Thursday following lower-than-expected September month-on-month inflation data, after keeping the rate at 37% at its previous five policy meetings.
瓦尔塔佩托夫在周四进行的采访中表示：“新经济团队赢得了一些信誉，但他们还需要更多。考虑到即将到来的选举影响，这些紧缩货币和宏观经济政策的可持续性仍不清楚。这是我们正在监测的。”他表示，标普对土耳其的评估大体与惠誉和穆迪一致，将于明年4月复核土耳其评级。
"The new economic team gained some credibility, but they would need more," Vartapetov said in an interview conducted on Thursday. "It's still not clear how sustainable these tight monetary and macroeconomic policies are in light of the upcoming electoral effects. That's what we're monitoring." S&P, whose assessment of Turkey broadly mirrors those of Fitch and Moody's, will review Turkey's rating in April next year, he said.
瓦尔塔佩托夫表示，标普将土耳其的投资基金危机主要视为治理和监管问题，而非对金融稳定的更广泛威胁。该危机于上个月爆发，监管机构下令清算100多只投资基金，理由是指控资产被操纵且价值被虚高。
Vartapetov said S&P viewed Turkey's investment fund crisis primarily as a governance and supervision issue rather than a broader threat to financial stability. The crisis erupted last month and regulators ordered the liquidation of more than 100 investment funds over allegations that assets had been manipulated and inflated in value.
他表示，从该行业撤出的大部分资金流向了里拉存款，而非外币或黄金，同时政策制定者迅速作出反应以遏制后果。
He said most money withdrawn from the sector had moved into lira deposits rather than foreign currency or gold, while policymakers had responded quickly to contain the fallout.
“我们将这一事件视为治理问题，而非广泛的金融危机，”瓦尔塔佩托夫说。“重要的是当局吸取了什么教训，以及将采取何种监管改进措施。”
"We treat that story as a governance story rather than a broad-based financial crisis," Vartapetov said. "What would be important is what sort of lessons the authorities learned and what sort of improvement in supervision is going to take place."