全球气候变暖的速度已经超出了我们的应对能力。根据10月14日发表在《生物科学》期刊上的一份新报告，“地球的气候系统正逐步进入未知领域”。这份名为《气候状况》的年度报告专门监测地球的各类“生命体征”，涵盖了温室气体浓度、温度变化以及因野火导致的森林植被减少等诸多气候相关指标。研究结果显示，在16项地球“生命体征”中，有7项目前正处于历史极值水平，其中包括海平面高度和大气中的温室气体含量。此外，诸如野火过火面积、海洋热含量等指标也呈现出加速变化或突变的迹象。
The climate is warming up faster than we can respond. According to a new report published Oct. 14 in the journal BioScience, “Earth’s climate system is moving deeper into uncharted territory.”The State of the Climate, an annual report that tracks the Earth’s “vital signs,” monitors several climate related indicators—ranging from greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature changes to tree cover loss due to wildfire. The researchers found that, of the 16 planetary vital signs, seven are currently at record extremes. This includes sea levels and greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. Meanwhile several others, such as areas burned during wildfires and ocean heat levels, show evidence of acceleration or abrupt shifts.
研究人员警告称，全球变暖的速率正在加快：1880年至1970年间，全球气温每十年仅上升约0.05摄氏度；而2010年至2024年间这一数值已升至每十年约0.36摄氏度。他们指出，旨在防止地球环境遭受严重破坏的2摄氏度升温阈值很可能在2050年之前被突破。这些日益加速且愈发剧烈的气候变化，极有可能引发一系列恶性循环，甚至导致地球越过多个“临界点”——一旦越过这些阈值，环境变化便会加速且往往不可逆转。
The researchers warn that the rate of global warming appears to have accelerated, from about 0.05°C per decade between 1880 and 1970 to roughly 0.36°C per decade between 2010 and 2024—and the 2°C threshold meant to limit planetary damage could be reached before 2050 they warn. These accelerating and intensifying changes could raise the risk of reinforcing feedback loops and crossing tipping points—critical thresholds that, when crossed, can lead to accelerating and often irreversible environmental changes.
2025年，地球已跨越首个气候临界点：不断上升的海水温度、海洋酸化、过度捕捞以及环境污染共同作用，引发了珊瑚白化与死亡现象。
In 2025, the Earth passed its first climate tipping point, as rising ocean temperatures, acidification, overfishing, and pollution are combining to cause coral bleaching and mortality.
报告指出：“地球的生命维持系统正被推向稳定极限之外，变化的速度超出了我们的应对能力。”今年，一系列极端天气事件使一个加速变暖的星球所带来的影响令人无法忽视。2026年7月是美国本土有记录以来最热的月份，当月海洋温度也创下历史新高。初步报告显示，欧洲接连不断的热浪导致估计3.5万人超额死亡。
"Earth’s life-support systems are being pushed beyond stable limits," the report states, "with changes unfolding faster than our ability to respond." This year, a number of extreme weather events made the impacts of an acceleratingly warming planet impossible to ignore. July 2026 was the hottest month on record for the contiguous United States, with ocean temperatures also reaching a record high that month. Back-to-back heat waves in Europe lead to an estimated 35,000 excess deaths, preliminary reports show.
包括美国犹他州、加拿大安大略省以及法国、西班牙、英国和比利时在内的多个地区，要么经历了有史以来最严重的野火年份，要么正朝着这一方向迈进。虽然我们目前还不足以将这些个别天气事件与气候变化联系起来，但研究表明，气候变化正在加剧极端天气事件。
A number of regions—including Utah in the U.S., Ontario, Canada, along with France, Spain, Britain, and Belgium have either experienced their worst wildfire years in history or are on track to do so. While we don’t yet know enough to link these individual weather events to climate change, research shows that it is supercharging extreme weather events.
研究人员称，包括二氧化碳、甲烷和一氧化二氮在内的温室气体浓度在2026年全部达到创纪录水平。2026年5月，大气中二氧化碳浓度超过百万分之428，比工业化前水平高出约50%，总体上高于过去200万年中的任何时期。
Concentrations of greenhouse gases—including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—all reached record levels in 2026, the researchers say. In May 2026, atmospheric carbon dioxide exceeded 428 parts per million, roughly 50% above pre-industrial levels and generally higher than any time in the last 2 million years.
今日这份报告的作者还追踪了推动这些地球变化的人类活动指标，如能源使用、粮食生产和经济增长。化石燃料消费仍是这些变化的主要驱动力。报告发现，2025年化石燃料消费量上升了0.9%，石油、煤炭和天然气均创下历史新高，与能源相关的年度二氧化碳排放量首次超过410亿吨——相当于超过1.08万座燃煤电厂一年的排放量。
The authors of today’s report also tracked indicators of the human activities driving these planetary changes, like energy use, food production, and economic growth. Fossil fuel consumption remains the dominant driver of these changes. Fossil fuel consumption rose by 0.9% in 2025, the report found, with oil, coal, and gas all reaching record highs, and annual energy-related carbon dioxide emissions surpassed 41 gigatons for the first time—the equivalent of emissions released by over 10,800 coal-fired power plants in one year.
不过，报告指出，也有一些进展迹象。2025年，低碳能源约占全球发电量的43%，太阳能和风能消费量增长了约18%。而这一切发生在伊朗战争暴露全球对化石燃料的依赖、并引发全球绿色能源热潮之前。
There have, however, been some signs of progress, the report notes. Low-carbon sources provided roughly 43% of global electricity generation in 2025, and solar and wind energy consumption grew by approximately 18%. That was before the war in Iran laid bare the world’s reliance on fossil fuels, and triggered a global green energy boom.
但报告指出，仅靠削减碳排放已不再足够。适应措施——从转向植物性饮食，到恢复红树林以更好地抵御风暴潮——将成为适应气候变化的关键。
But cutting carbon emissions will no longer be enough on its own, the report states. Adaptation measures—ranging from shifts towards plant-based diets, to restoring mangroves to better protect against storm surges—will be key to adjusting to a changing climate.
报告强调了一个无法回避的事实。“我们正在目睹地球气候系统的迅速失稳，”报告指出。“这不再是对未来的警告；这是对当下的诊断。”
The report underscores an unavoidable truth. "We are witnessing the rapid destabilization of the Earth’s climate system,” it states. “This is no longer a warning for the future; it is a diagnosis of the present.”