特朗普与俄罗斯的柴油协议不太可能拉低燃料价格 2026年10月14日 无论是否与俄罗斯达成协议，全球市场上的柴油价格都不太可能在短期内大幅下跌。
Trump's diesel deal with Russia unlikely to bring down fuel prices October 14, 2026 With or without a deal with Russia, diesel prices on global markets are unlikely to fall significantly anytime soon.
这是接受德国之声采访的专家就美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京最新达成的燃料供应协议所作出的评估。
That is the assessment of experts interviewed by DW regarding the latest fuel-supply agreement between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“柴油价格高企的主要原因是伊朗战争，以及霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡航运同时中断，”位于科隆的德国经济研究所（IW）对外贸易专家萨米娜·苏丹表示。
"The main reason for high diesel prices is the war in Iran and the simultaneous disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait," said Samina Sultan, a foreign trade expert at the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne.
她说，这一局势导致生产中断，并使燃料运输“更昂贵、更不安全、更困难”。
The situation has led to production outages and made fuel shipments "more expensive, less secure and more difficult," she said.
苏丹表示，特朗普与俄罗斯的协议还带来了额外的地缘政治层面：“它使乌克兰战争和伊朗战争完全交织在一起。” 战争导致炼油产量下降 不过，情况正在好转。据航运和大宗商品分析公司Kpler的数据，每天大约有1350万桶原油再次通过霍尔木兹海峡。
Trump's deal with Russia also has an additional geopolitical dimension, Sultan said: "It causes the wars in Ukraine and Iran to become completely intertwined." Wars reducing refinery output Things are looking up, though. Roughly 13.5 million barrels of crude oil are once again flowing through the Strait of Hormuz a day, according to shipping and commodities analytics firm Kpler.
但就柴油等成品油而言，运输量仍远低于战前的每天360万桶，目前约为每天67.7万桶。
But for refined products such as diesel, volumes remain far lower at around 677,000 barrels per day, compared with 3.6 million barrels before the war.
德国商业银行大宗商品分析师卡斯滕·弗里奇也将价格上涨归因于这些战争。
Carsten Fritsch, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank, also attributes the price increases to the wars.
“如果乌克兰和中东局势没有任何变化，我看不出有什么办法能解决这些供应瓶颈，”他说。
"If nothing changes in Ukraine and the Middle East, I see very few ways to resolve these supply bottlenecks," he said.
特朗普预计价格将以创纪录的速度下跌 在10月9日的一则社交媒体帖子中，特朗普宣布他将暂时中止对俄罗斯的部分制裁，并开始进口俄罗斯柴油。
Trump expects prices to fall at record speed In a social media post on October 9, Trump announced that he would temporarily suspend some sanctions on Russia and begin importing Russian diesel.
他写道：“美国人的柴油价格，事实上也是全世界的柴油价格，将会下降，以创纪录的数字，而且很快！”文中大小写字母混用。
He wrote "diesel prices for Americans and, indeed, the world, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!" in a mix of lowercase and all caps.
俄罗斯证实了这一安排。克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫10月13日对俄罗斯国家通讯社塔斯社表示，供应柴油“符合俄罗斯、美国和全球能源市场的利益”。过去12个月里，美国和许多欧盟国家的柴油价格大幅上涨。
Russia confirmed the arrangement. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state news agency TASS on October 13 that supplying diesel fuel was "in the interests of Russia, the United States and global energy markets." Diesel prices in the US and many EU countries have risen sharply over the past 12 months.
根据美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据，美国柴油价格上涨了约60%，目前达到每加仑6.30美元，相当于每升1.66美元（约合1.49欧元）。
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), prices in the US have climbed by about 60% and now stand at $6.30 per gallon, equivalent to $1.66 (or €1.49) per liter of diesel.
柴油——美国制造 但即便俄罗斯能够以廉价柴油充斥全球市场，价格也不会像近期上涨那样大幅回落，这是德国之声联系的所有专家一致认同的看法。
Diesel — Made in the USA But even if Russia were able to flood global markets with cheap diesel, prices would not fall nearly as much as they recently rose, something all of the experts contacted by DW agree on.
墨西哥湾地区的许多炼油厂遭到中断或损坏，而通过影子船队运输燃料并办理保险仍然成本高昂、繁琐且风险重重。
Many refineries around the Gulf region have suffered disruptions or damage, while transporting fuel via shadow fleets and securing insurance remains costly, cumbersome and risky.
另一个关键转变是，俄罗斯不再是世界最大的柴油出口国。事实上，它正面临国内的燃料短缺。
Another key shift is that Russia is no longer the world's largest diesel exporter. In fact, it is facing its own fuel shortages at home.
美国现在是世界最大的柴油出口国。2025年，美国日均出口126万桶柴油，约占全球柴油出口量的15.4%。
The US is now the world's biggest diesel exporter. In 2025, it exported an average of 1.26 million barrels of diesel per day, accounting for roughly 15.4% of global diesel exports.
与此同时，俄罗斯以9.5%的份额降至第二位，而这还是在乌克兰对其炼油厂发动大规模无人机袭击之前。
At the same time, Russia fell to second place with a 9.5% share, and that was before major Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries.
关于出口限制的争论仍在继续 除了美俄新的柴油协议外，特朗普最近还提出了美国限制柴油出口的想法。但据萨米娜·苏丹称，这一想法被放弃，因为它可能导致美国国内柴油价格进一步上涨。
Debates over export restrictions continue Besides the new US-Russia diesel agreement, Trump also recently floated the idea of US diesel export restrictions. But the idea was abandoned because it could lead to even higher diesel prices in the country, according to Samina Sultan.
“美国的柴油储存能力实在不足，”苏丹说道，“届时产量必然会减少，油价也会再度上涨。”如果美国对柴油实施出口限制，拉丁美洲和欧盟的买家将受到极大冲击。自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，受制裁影响，欧盟各国越来越多地从美国而非俄罗斯进口柴油。
"There simply is not enough diesel storage capacity in the United States," Sultan said. "Production would have to be reduced, and then prices would rise again." If the US were to impose export restrictions on diesel, buyers in Latin America and the European Union would be hit particularly hard. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, EU countries have increasingly imported diesel from the US instead of Russia because of sanctions.
“出口禁令只会让供应短缺的问题重新分布，并不能从根本上解决问题，”荷兰国际集团首席经济学家卡斯滕·布热斯基指出，“全球油价仍会持续上涨，而炼油厂也会因利润空间缩水而缩减产量。”
"An export ban merely redistributes the shortage; it does not solve it," said ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski. "Global prices would continue to rise, while refineries would scale back production as margins shrink," he added.
对美国国内柴油需求影响有限 抛开出口限制不谈，很少有人认为美俄之间的柴油交易会产生什么重大影响。
Limited impact on US diesel demand Export restrictions aside, few people consider that the US-Russia diesel deal will have any big impact.
根据“世界数据”平台的计算，俄罗斯承诺出口的220万桶柴油，甚至不足以满足美国一天约400万桶的柴油需求量。即便把特朗普宣布的所有柴油供应量加起来，总量也仅为3580万桶，仅能满足美国国内约9天的需求。
According to calculations by the platform The World Data, the promised shipment of 2.2 million barrels of diesel from Russia would not even cover a single day's US diesel demand of roughly 4 million barrels. Even if all of the diesel volumes announced by Trump were combined, totaling 35.8 million barrels, they would only cover about nine days of US domestic demand.
“这件事根本无关紧要，我再怎么强调都不为过，”加拿大石油市场分析师罗里·约翰斯顿在公告发布后不久就在社交平台X上用全大写字母写道。
"I CANNOT OVERSTATE HOW MUCH OF A NOTHING BURGER THIS IS," Canadian oil market analyst Rory Johnston wrote in an all-caps post on X shortly after the announcement.
他补充称，如果俄罗斯的炼油厂没有遭到乌克兰无人机的袭击，其正常情况下的出口量会是这个数字的近10倍。
Russia would normally export almost 10 times that volume if its refinery fleet was not being targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks, he added.
加拿大同样向美国供应柴油，美国约80%的柴油进口都来自这个北方邻国。鉴于特朗普对加拿大的言辞攻击以及两国间持续的贸易争端，分析人士认为加拿大大幅增加对美柴油供应的可能性微乎其微。
Canada also supplies diesel to the United States. Roughly 80% of all US diesel imports come from its northern neighbor. Given Trump's verbal attacks on Canada and the ongoing trade dispute, analysts view the prospect of Canada supplying significantly more diesel to the US as highly unlikely.