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二十国集团财长将放弃发表联合声明,贝森特缺席会议G20 finance chiefs to forgo joint statement as Bessent skips meeting

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据华盛顿方面消息,美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特因国内事务将不参加二十国集团财长会议。© 路透社U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will not join the G20 finance ministers' meeting because of domestic engagements, according to Washington. © Reuters

曼谷——来自20个主要经济体的财政部长和中央银行行长将于周四在曼谷举行会议,但预计这次国际会议将无任何联合公报或会议主席的总结性声明。

BANGKOK -- Finance ministers and central bank governors from Group of 20 major economies will meet in Bangkok on Thursday, but the international gathering is expected to end without a joint communique or a chair's summary.

代表今年G20轮值国的美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott Bessent)将不会出席会议。这将是八年来首次在10月举行的G20财政部长会议上未能发布联合公报的情况。

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, representing this year's G20 chair, will not attend the meeting. It would be the first time in eight years that an October G20 finance ministers meeting has failed to produce a communique.

一位随日本政府代表团出席的官员表示:“这次会议通常是对夏季G20财政部长会议成果的跟进讨论;不过,轮值国的财政部长缺席确实很不寻常。”华盛顿方面称,贝森特因国内事务安排而无法出席此次会议。

"The meeting often serves as a review, because it comes relatively soon after the summer G20 finance minister's meeting," a source accompanying the Japanese government delegation said. "Still, it's unusual for the finance minister from the chair country to be absent." Washington said Bessent will miss the meeting because of domestic engagements.

此次G20会议将与国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行的年会同时举行,会议将持续一天,日本财政部长胜木贞树(Satsuki Katayama)及日本央行行长上田和夫(Kazuo Ueda)将出席会议。随后还将举行由七国集团(G7)财政部长和中央银行行长参加的会议。

The G20 meeting will be held in conjunction with the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The meeting will last one day, with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda attending. A meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven wealthy countries will follow.

国际会议汇聚了来自世界各地的部长们,包括那些存在分歧的国家,为双边对话和私下讨论提供了机会。

International conferences bring together ministers from a wide range of countries and regions, including those at odds, enabling bilateral talks and sideline discussions.

G20领导人峰会定于12月举行。此次财政部长会议本可以为各国领导人协调应对各种国际挑战(包括美伊冲突引发的能源问题以及发达国家面临的公共财政问题)奠定基础。

A G20 leaders summit is scheduled for December. The finance ministers meeting could have helped lay the groundwork for global leaders to coordinate their response to an array of international challenges, including energy problems stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict and concerns about public finances in advanced economies.

目前各国面临的主要挑战是应对高油价问题,并确保石油储备的可持续性。夏季期间,西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货价格大多在每桶60至80美元之间波动,但上个月价格已突破100美元大关,并再度开始上涨。

The biggest issues countries face now are dealing with high crude oil prices and ensuring sustainable petroleum reserves. West Texas Intermediate futures traded mostly in the range of $60 to $80 per barrel during the summer, but have climbed above $100 last month and are beginning to rise again.

在上周的讲话中,国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃指出,随着北半球进入寒冷季节,石油需求将会上升。

In a speech last week, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted oil demand will rise as the northern hemisphere enters the cold season.

她说道:“即便海湾地区的冲突很快平息,高能源价格的问题仍可能在一段时间内持续存在。”

"Even if the war in the Gulf were to end soon, the problem of high energy prices would likely persist for some time," she said.

本月,七国集团领导人达成共识,决定协调释放石油储备。不过据日本央行一位高级官员透露:“人们越来越担心,新兴经济体可能无法获得充足的石油供应。”

G7 leaders this month agreed to coordinate releases from petroleum reserves, but "concerns are mounting that emerging economies may be unable to secure adequate supplies," according to a senior BOJ official.

二十国集团财长会议将与国际货币基金组织及世界银行年会同期举行。

The G20 finance ministers meeting will be held at the same time as the IMF and World Bank annual meetings.

目前,一些经济体正从人工智能需求的激增中获益良多。虽然美国和中国在人工智能相关设备贸易上存在巨额逆差,但中国台湾、韩国、马来西亚和墨西哥等国则因出现贸易顺差而受益。

Some economies are currently benefiting significantly from surging demand for artificial intelligence. While the U.S. and China run large trade deficits in AI-related equipment, economies including Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia and Mexico are benefiting from surpluses.

在周二发布的《世界经济展望》报告中,国际货币基金组织预测2026年新兴经济体的经济增长率将为3.7%,较7月份的预测值下降了0.1个百分点。尽管包括沙特阿拉伯在内的中东及中亚地区经济出现萎缩,但人工智能需求仍支撑着部分新兴经济体的增长。

In its World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the IMF forecast emerging-market growth of 3.7% in 2026, down 0.1 percentage point from its July projection. While the Middle East and Central Asia, including Saudi Arabia, have slipped into contraction, AI demand is supporting growth in some emerging economies.

各经济体间获益程度的差距正日益扩大。大和总研的高级经济学家增川千咲子指出:“从证券投资领域来看,资金需求也正集中流向新兴市场中的人工智能相关股票。倘若市场对美国人工智能投资的预期转弱,资本便可能迅速撤离。”此外,各国应对危机的能力也令人担忧,尤其是当本币大幅贬值时,可用于市场干预的外汇储备量正在不断减少。

The disparity in benefits among economies is widening. "Looking at portfolio investment as well, demand is concentrating on AI-related stocks in emerging markets," said Chisaki Masukawa, senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research. "If expectations for U.S. AI investment weaken, capital could flee." There are also concerns about countries' preparedness for a crisis, particularly the decline in foreign-exchange reserves that could be tapped for market intervention when currencies plunge.

根据大和总研的数据,截至6月底,以进口额为衡量标准,印度尼西亚的外汇储备仅能支撑4.8个月的进口需求,这一数值较2022年底的6.2个月有所下降。菲律宾的外汇储备则从原本可支撑8个月的需求降至5.8个月;泰国的储备水平也从8.7个月降至5.9个月。

Measured against the value of imports, Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell to the equivalent of 4.8 months of imports at the end of June, down from 6.2 months at the end of 2022, according to Daiwa Institute of Research. The Philippines' reserves slipped to 5.8 months from eight months, while Thailand's dropped to 5.9 months from 8.7 months.

国际金融协会指出,9月份新兴市场出现了263亿美元的资本净流出。这是自6月以来资本流出规模首次超过流入规模,其中亚洲地区的股票及债券市场出现的净流出现象尤为显著。

Emerging markets recorded net capital outflows of $26.3 billion in September, according to the Institute of International Finance. It was the first time since June that outflows exceeded inflows, with particularly pronounced net outflows from Asian stock and bond markets.

9月份,日本、美国和欧洲的各国央行同步加息,进一步加剧了新兴市场面临的资本外流压力。

In September, central banks in Japan, the U.S. and Europe simultaneously raised interest rates, ramping up capital-outflow pressure on emerging economies.

此次财长会议未能发表联合声明或主席总结,未能体现二十国集团应对发展中经济体所面临问题的决心。因此,该集团在领导人峰会召开之际仍将面临诸多悬而未决的挑战。

Without a joint statement or chair's summary at the finance ministers meeting to show that the G20 is prepared to address the issues facing developing economies, the group will head into its leaders summit with these challenges unresolved.