印度稳定卢比的斗争开始在债券市场付出代价，因为交易员们加大了对更快加息的押注。
India’s fight to stabilize the rupee is starting to exact a price in the bond market, as traders ramp up bets on faster interest-rate hikes.
据Ujjivan小型金融银行和IDFC第一银行的分析师称，10年期政府债券收益率可能在本月就达到7.5%，较周三的7.4%进一步攀升，为2023年3月以来的最高水平。
The 10-year government bond yield may hit 7.5% as soon as this month, according to analysts at Ujjivan Small Finance Bank and IDFC First Bank — extending its climb from 7.4% on Wednesday, the highest since March 2023.
抛售凸显了印度储备银行在其十多年来最大力度支持卢比之后所面临的权衡。央行已推出措施以抑制美元需求，包括为国有炼油厂提供外汇的特殊窗口。但油价居高不下和外资流出持续，交易员们认为RBI可能需要更多依赖加息，而加息往往会压低债券价格、推高收益率。
The selloff highlights the trade-off facing the Reserve Bank of India after its boldest effort in more than a decade to support the rupee. The central bank has rolled out measures to curb dollar demand, including a special window to supply foreign currency to state-run oil refiners. But with elevated oil prices and foreign outflows persisting, traders are betting the RBI will need to rely more on rate hikes, which tend to push bond prices down and yields higher.
“市场在RBI最近的货币措施之后开始定价更快的加息，这表明他们有决心确保卢比有序，”Ujjivan财资主管拉杰夫·帕瓦尔说。交易员现在认为12月加息50个基点的可能性更大，这对债券构成压力，他补充道。
“The market is pricing in faster rate hikes after the RBI’s recent currency measures, which is signaling their resolve toward ensuring an orderly rupee,” said Rajeev Pawar, head of treasury at Ujjivan. Traders now see a greater chance of a 50-basis-point hike in December, weighing on bonds, he added.
这些预期因行长桑贾伊·马尔霍特拉周二的言论而得到加强，他表示如果有必要，RBI准备采取进一步步骤以遏制外汇市场的投机。央行本月早些时候时隔近四年首次加息，并暗示可能还会继续加息。
Those expectations were reinforced by Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s comments Tuesday that the RBI was prepared to take further steps if needed to curb speculation in the foreign-exchange market. It raised rates earlier this month for the first time in nearly four years and signaled more may follow.
一些投资者认为，如果油价保持高位，政策利率可能从目前的5.5%攀升至最高6.5%，Karur Vysya银行财资主管VRC·雷迪如此表示。
Some investors see the policy rate climbing to as high as 6.5%, from 5.5% now, if oil prices stay elevated, said VRC Reddy, head of treasury at Karur Vysya Bank.
“基本上，市场担心如果RBI宣布的措施未能达到预期效果，最终将不得不诉诸更高的利率，”PGIM印度共同基金固定收益主管普尼特·帕尔说，他预计未来一个月10年期收益率可能攀升至最高7.60%。
“Basically the market is fearing an ultimate recourse to higher interest rates by RBI if the measures announced fail to have the desired impact,” said Puneet Pal, head of fixed income at PGIM India Mutual Fund, who expects the 10-year yield to climb to as high as 7.60% over the next month.
彭博的策略师们表示……即使在最近的印度央行紧缩之后，印度的实际政策利率仍不如美国的有吸引力，因为美国的政策利率继续以更大的幅度超过通胀。通胀调整后的收益率优势正在缩小，这提高了卢比吸引外国资本的门槛，并加强了人们对利差缩小将继续拖累货币的担忧。—— 安德烈·德·席尔瓦，宏观策略师。
What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say...Even after recent RBI tightening, India’s real policy rate remains less compelling than in the US, where policy rates continue to exceed inflation by a wider margin. The narrowing inflation-adjusted yield advantage raises the hurdle for the rupee to attract foreign capital and reinforces concerns that shrinking rate differentials will continue to weigh on the currency.— Andre de Silva, macro strategist. Click here for more.
然而，加息可能不是债券面临的最大风险。捍卫卢比意味着卖出美元，而印度央行每卖出一美元，就会从金融体系中抽走卢比。这使得银行手头可用于互相贷款的现金减少，可用于投资政府债务的资金也随之减少。
Yet rate hikes may not be the biggest risk for bonds. Defending the rupee means selling dollars, and every dollar the RBI sells pulls rupees out of the financial system. That leaves banks with less cash to lend to each other, and less to invest in government debt.
这种流动性紧张可能对市场构成更大的惊喜。虽然预期中的加息基本已经被市场消化，但更紧张的现金状况尚未被定价，IDFC First Bank首席经济学家高拉·森·古普塔如是说。
That liquidity squeeze may be the bigger surprise for the market. While expected rate hikes are largely priced in, tighter cash conditions are not, according to Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank.
“到目前为止，流动性一直是保护国内债券免受全球抛售影响的屏障，但如今这种保护正在减弱，”她说。她预计，10年期收益率在短期内将在7.20%至7.50%之间交易，而此前的预测约为7.25%。
“So far, liquidity was the wall that had protected domestic bonds from the global selloff, but now that cover is reducing,” she said. She sees the 10-year yield trading between 7.20% and 7.50% in the near term, compared with an earlier forecast of around 7.25%.
目前，印度央行的措施已帮助卢比在本周上涨1.6%，至约每美元95卢比。问题在于这种缓解能持续多久。布伦特原油价格因中东动荡仍维持在每桶100美元以上，通胀已升至两年高点，而美国收益率的飙升正在将资本从新兴市场抽走——这种组合可能再次推低货币。
For now, the RBI’s measures have helped the rupee rally 1.6% this week to around 95 per dollar. The question is how long that relief can last. Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel amid turmoil in the Middle East, inflation has climbed to a two-year high and surging US yields are pulling capital away from emerging markets — a combination that may push the currency lower again.
这使得印度央行面临越来越艰难的选择。它已经鼓励银行在不到三个月的时间里从海外印度人那里筹集1330亿美元，这项活动在8月结束，但未能扭转看空情绪。
That leaves the RBI with increasingly difficult choices. It has already encouraged banks to raise $133 billion from Indians overseas in less than three months, a drive that ended in August but failed to reverse bearish sentiment.
RBI 的传统政策工具箱如今已被大规模动用。Ambit Capital 经济学家 Swayamsiddha Panda 在一份报告中写道，进一步加息和限制境外汇款是目前仅剩的少数选择之一。
Much of the RBI’s traditional playbook has now been deployed. Further rate hikes and curbs on outward remittances are among the few options left, Swayamsiddha Panda, an economist at Ambit Capital, wrote in a note.