随着印度储备银行（RBI）加大流动性回收力度，印度债券收益率曲线有望进一步趋平，促使部分投资者青睐10年期债券而非5年期债券。
India’s bond curve is poised to flatten further as the Reserve Bank of India steps up liquidity withdrawals, prompting some investors to favor 10-year debt over five-year notes.
据中国工商银行有限公司和Anand Rathi Global Finance Ltd.预测，随着印度储备银行回笼过剩现金，给短期债券带来压力，5年期至10年期收益率差距预计将收窄。据ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd.称，如果央行在政策收紧方面保持激进，5年期收益率可能从目前的6.94%升至7%左右。
The five- to 10-year yield gap is expected to narrow as the RBI drains surplus cash, pressuring shorter maturities, according to Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Anand Rathi Global Finance Ltd. The five-year yield may rise to around 7% from a current 6.94% if the central bank remains aggressive in its policy tightening, according to ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd.
银行体系流动性过剩促使印度储备银行回收资金，在其寻求遏制物价的过程中，推高了短期收益率。央行已回笼超过1万亿卢比（约104亿美元），进一步吸收现金的步伐以及任何额外的加息举措，将决定收益率曲线趋平的程度。
Excess banking-system liquidity is prompting the RBI to withdraw funds, putting upward pressure on shorter-dated yields as it seeks to contain prices. The central bank has already withdrawn more than 1 trillion rupees ($10.4 billion), and the pace of further cash absorption, alongside any additional rate hikes, will determine how far the yield curve flattens.
“短端应进一步趋平，因为印度储备银行将隔夜利率引导至接近或高于回购利率，以确保有效传导，”中国工商银行孟买分行资金部主管Alok Sharma表示。他预计5年期和10年期收益率差距将收窄至多达10个基点，如果隔夜利率有意义地升至回购利率之上，收益率曲线将变平或出现轻度倒挂。
“The short end should see further flattening as the RBI steers overnight rates near or above the repo rate to ensure effective transmission,” said Alok Sharma, head of treasury at ICBC in Mumbai. He sees the five-year and 10-year gap narrowing to as much as 10 basis points and the curve turning flat or mildly inverted if overnight rates move meaningfully above the repo rate.
印度储备银行的流动性立场至关重要，目前隔夜利率（即银行之间拆借一日资金的利率）仍低于回购利率（即央行的政策利率）。过剩现金使隔夜拆借成本维持在政策利率之下，促使印度储备银行通过公开市场操作回笼流动性。
The RBI’s liquidity stance is key, with the overnight rate, the rate banks charge each other for one day, still below the repo rate, the central bank’s policy rate. Surplus cash has kept overnight borrowing costs below the policy rate, prompting the RBI to drain liquidity through market operations.
部分投资者目前正为曲线趋平进行布局。Anand Rathi资金部主管Harsimran Sahni建议卖出5年期基准债券并买入10年期债券，这一交易将从收益率差距收窄中获益。
Some investors are now positioning for a flatter curve. Harsimran Sahni, head of treasury at Anand Rathi, recommends selling the five-year benchmark and buying the 10-year bond, a trade that would benefit from a narrowing yield gap.
下一个考验将在周三到来，根据彭博社调查的大多数经济学家预测，印度央行（RBI）预计将把政策利率上调25个基点至5.50%。这将是自2023年2月以来的首次加息，任何更激进收紧路径的信号都可能给收益率曲线的短端带来压力。
The next test comes Wednesday, when the RBI is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, according to a majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. It would be the first increase since February 2023, with any signal of a more aggressive tightening path likely to add pressure on the short end of the curve.
“如果印度央行暗示还有进一步加息的可能，仍存在看跌压平的空间，”ICICI经济学家Abhishek Upadhyay表示。本周主要经济事件：
“There is still some scope for bear flattening if the RBI indicates that there are more hikes likely,” said Abhishek Upadhyay, an economist at ICICI. This week’s main economic events: