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印度卢比料在美债收益率回落后走高,美联储加息预期仍低Indian rupee to rise after US yields reverse inflation-led spike, Fed hike bets remain low

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文件照片:2026年8月5日,在印度孟买的印度储备银行(RBI)总部,一名男子走过印度卢比符号装置。路透社/弗朗西斯·马斯卡雷尼亚斯//文件照片/文件照片FILE PHOTO: A man walks past an Indian Rupee symbol installation at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) headquarters in Mumbai, India, August 5, 2026. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas//File Photo/File Photo

印度卢比料在周四开盘时走高,因美国国债收益率在初次因粘性通胀数据上涨后出现回落,交易员仍认为美联储10月加息的可能性有限。

The Indian rupee is likely to rise at the open on Thursday, boosted by the pullback in US Treasury yields after an initial rise on sticky inflation data, with traders still pricing in limited chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.

交易员称,卢比料在95.02至95.06区间开盘,周三曾收于1美元兑95.15卢比。

The rupee is expected to open in the 95.02 to 95.06 range, per traders, having settled at 95.15 to the dollar on Wednesday.

焦点在于印度储备银行及其愿意采取何种力度来支撑卢比。该央行通过一系列措施抑制了美元需求,随后又进行了直接美元售出。

The focus is squarely on the Reserve Bank of India and how far it is willing to go to shore up the rupee. The central bank has curbed dollar demand through a series of measures, following that up with direct dollar sales.

一家银行的货币交易员称,印度储备银行的信号“毫不含糊”,旨在遏制货币贬值。

The message from the RBI is "unmistakable," a currency trader at a bank said, about arresting the currency's slide.

他问道:“现在的问题是印度储备银行愿意走多远,以及市场还能容许它走多远。”

"The question now is how far the RBI is willing to go, and how much further the market will allow it," he said.

他还说:“昨天就已出现抵抗迹象”,并指出卢比反弹在突破95水平后遇阻。

"Signs of resistance were already evident yesterday," he said, pointing to the rupee rally hitting a hurdle past the 95 level.

美国国债收益率最初因9月美国通胀超预期上涨而激增,交易员因而大幅增加了对本月美联储加息的押注。

US Treasury yields surged initially after US inflation rose more than expected in September, and traders sharply increased bets on a Fed rate hike this month.

然而,这一走势随后逆转,分析师将收益率回落归因于避险情绪。摩根士丹利进一步指出,真金白银投资者和快钱投资者的需求是收益率回落的原因。

The move, however, reversed, with analysts attributing the pullback to risk aversion. Morgan Stanley further pointed to demand from real-money and fast-money investors as the reason behind the pullback in yields.

美联储加息预期走势类似,一度升至近60%,随后回落至低于四分之一,接近通胀数据公布前的水平。

Fed rate-hike expectations followed a similar trajectory, jumping to nearly 60% before retreating to less than one-in-four, close to where they stood before the inflation data.

墨尔本 Pepperstone 研究主管克里斯·韦斯顿表示:“这一逆转值得关注。当通胀向上超预期,却见美国国债收益率收低时,表明投资者日益担忧粘性通胀、生活成本压力以及长期高利率可能对已经明显分化的K型经济造成什么影响。”

"That reversal deserves attention. When inflation surprises to the upside, yet Treasury yields finish lower, it suggests investors are increasingly concerned about what sticky inflation, cost-of-living pressures and higher-for-longer rates could do to an already pronounced K-shaped economy," said Chris Weston, head of research at Melbourne-based Pepperstone.