
瑞士银行(UBS)高管正在为一项曾经难以想象的举措做准备——放弃其瑞士本部。
Executives at UBS, Switzerland’s last remaining flagship global bank, are preparing for a once unimaginable move—ditching its Swiss home base.
银行内部人士及其顾问正在制定应对方案,以防瑞士议员在该国“太大而不能倒”银行法框架下推行更严格的资本要求。熟悉银行行动的人士称,这些措施是对UBS三年前不得不救助瑞信的回应。
People at the bank and their advisers are mapping out contingency plans should Swiss lawmakers proceed with tougher capital requirements under the country’s too-big-to-fail banking laws. The measures are a response to UBS having to rescue Credit Suisse three years ago, according to people familiar with the bank’s efforts.
这可能意味着,作为瑞士金融巨头和经济主要驱动力的UBS,未来可能从远离苏黎世鹅卵石街道的总部运营。
It could mean a future in which UBS—the country’s financial behemoth and a major driver of its economy—is run from a headquarters far from the cobblestone streets of Zurich.
熟悉情况的人士表示,正在讨论的选项包括收购一家美国金融机构并迁址、与欧洲竞争对手合并,或将自身出售给一家渴望获取其高净值客户群的美国公司。
Options under discussion include buying a U.S.-based financial institution and relocating, merging with a European rival or selling itself to a U.S. firm seeking its well-heeled clientele, the people familiar with the matter said.
若从苏黎世迁出,将削弱这家作为瑞士金融标杆的银行的瑞士属性。瑞士的文化身份与其作为提供保密和为全球精英财富提供避风港的历史角色紧密相连。
A move from Zurich would diminish the Swiss-ness of a bank that serves as the country’s financial standard-bearer. Switzerland’s cultural identity is wrapped up in its historic role as a place that provides discretion and a haven for the wealth of the global elite.
UBS可能的离去使瑞士陷入对金融在其经济身份中应占多大比重的最新存在性危机。该国希望UBS为其庞大的海外业务持有大量新资本,UBS估计,根据目前议会审议的立法,这一增资将花费约160亿美元。该国民调显示,民众支持提高资本要求。
The possible departure of UBS has plunged Switzerland into its latest existential crisis over how much it wants finance to define its economic identity. The country wants UBS to hold substantial new capital against its large foreign operations, an increase UBS estimates would cost around $16 billion under the legislation before Parliament. Polls in the country show support for the increases.
主导推行更高资本要求的财政部长卡琳·凯勒-苏特表示,UBS离开的成本将高于留下的成本,她认为该银行不会离开。
Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter, who has led the charge to impose the higher capital requirements, said that it would cost UBS more to leave than to stay and that she didn’t think the bank would leave.
“UBS 想要成为一家全球性银行,而瑞士民众希望它能成为街头巷尾小店、以及本地储蓄银行的服务商,”圣加仑大学教授、税收与贸易政策研究主管斯特凡·莱格(Stefan Legge)表示。“我们正在看一场‘胆小鬼博弈’。谁先退缩?”瑞士的家庭财富位居世界前列,得益于一些全球最大企业的总部设在该国。这些本土诞生的全球冠军企业,强化了这个仅有 900 万人口的国家“以小博大”的形象。
“UBS wants to be a global bank, and people in Switzerland would like it to be the local player for the mom-and-pop shop, and be the local savings bank,” said Stefan Legge, a professor, and head of tax and trade policy at the University of St. Gallen. “We are watching a game of chicken. Who chickens out first?”Switzerland’s household wealth, among the highest in the world, is bolstered by the presence of some of the world’s largest companies. Global homegrown champions reinforce the country’s image as a nation of just nine million people that punches above its weight.
UBS 的历史可追溯至 1862 年;1998 年,瑞士联合银行与瑞士银行合并组建成现代 UBS,曾短暂成为按资产规模计算的世界第二大银行。
UBS traces its history to 1862 and briefly became the world’s second-largest bank by assets when Union Bank of Switzerland and Swiss Bank Corporation merged to form the modern institution in 1998.
瑞士议员表示,需要更严厉的措施来防范可能引发主权危机的银行业崩塌。现行法律是在 2008 年 UBS 因敞口有毒美国抵押贷款而获得逾 500 亿美元救助后制定的,但这些法律从未被完全执行,在 2023 年瑞信走向崩溃时也几乎无济于事。
Swiss lawmakers say tougher measures are needed to guard against a banking collapse that could trigger a sovereign crisis. The existing laws were written after UBS needed a bailout of more than $50 billion following its exposure to toxic U.S. mortgages in 2008, but they weren’t fully enforced and proved to be of little help when Credit Suisse was heading toward its 2023 collapse.
两大贷款机构的合并只会重燃瑞士可能面临进一步救助的担忧。UBS 拥有 1.7 万亿美元资产,约占瑞士经济产出的 150%,而美国最大银行的资产仅占美国 GDP 的 15%。
The combination of the two large lenders has only revived fears that Switzerland could face further bailouts. UBS’s $1.7 trillion in assets amounts to around 150% of Swiss economic output, compared with 15% of U.S. GDP for the biggest American bank.
知情人士透露,在 UBS 与政府近几个月就立法问题公开交锋之际,UBS 收到了来自潜在美国合作伙伴关于可能达成交易的接洽。他们提醒称,该银行并未进行实质性谈判,也未采取任何正式步骤推进交易。
While UBS and the government publicly sparred over the legislation in recent months, UBS received approaches from potential U.S. partners about possible deals, some of the people said. They cautioned that the bank isn’t in active talks and hasn’t taken any formal steps toward a deal.
UBS 是否会推进任何交易尚无保证,有人甚至认为该行是在进行最后的姿态表演,以期说服立法者改变计划——该计划仍需议会批准,预计将在未来几个月内完成。也有可能该行最终只是决定留在原地。根据目前的提案,该行将有七年时间逐步落实更高的资本要求。
There are no guarantees UBS will proceed with any deal and some have suggested the bank is posturing in a last-ditch effort to persuade lawmakers to alter their plans, which still require parliamentary approval that is expected in the coming months. It could also just decide to stay. Under the current proposal, the bank would have seven years to phase in the higher capital requirements.
两家UBS的外部股东——Cevian Capital和Artisan Partners——正在推动这一举措。
Two outside UBS shareholders, Cevian Capital and Artisan Partners, are pushing for a move.
即使UBS将总部迁出瑞士,该行仍可能保留其国内瑞士业务,或将其剥离给股东或外部投资者。该行并未细分其瑞士业务的整体规模,但在其游说材料中表示,其向瑞士企业和家庭贷款约4170亿美元,且约三分之一的收入来源于瑞士。
Even if the bank moves its headquarters, UBS could retain its domestic Swiss business or potentially spin it off to shareholders or outside investors. It doesn’t break down the overall size of its Swiss business, but in its lobbying materials it said it lends about $417 billion to Swiss companies and households and generates around one-third of its revenue there.
自2022年起担任UBS董事会主席的前摩根士丹利总裁Colm Kelleher,正日益倾向于探索交易可能性,知情人士透露。他加入时的使命是扩大UBS在美国的业务,并提升其在银行投资者眼中的价值。
Colm Kelleher, the former Morgan Stanley president who has chaired UBS’s board since 2022, is increasingly in favor of exploring a deal, some of the people said. His mandate when he joined was to scale up UBS in the U.S. and increase its value in the eyes of bank investors.
一位知情人士将Kelleher的策略比作与瑞士当局进行强硬谈判的扑克牌局,而非简单的虚张声势。
One of the people likened Kelleher’s strategy to playing hard-nosed poker with Swiss authorities, rather than simply bluffing.
若搬迁成为现实,这将是UBS首席执行官Sergio Ermotti难以接受的苦果。作为瑞士国民,他于2023年回归UBS,任务是引导该行完成对竞争对手瑞信的紧急收购。他在接受此职务时曾表示,在危机最严峻之时,他出于国家责任感而接受了这一角色。
A move would be a bitter pill for the bank’s chief executive, Sergio Ermotti. A Swiss national, he returned to UBS in 2023 to guide it through the emergency purchase of rival Credit Suisse. He spoke of a sense of national duty in accepting the role at the height of the crisis.

但面对政府坚持提高该行资本要求的决心,知情人士称,他已在维持瑞士金融冠军地位的重要性上软化了立场。
But faced with the government’s determination to increase the bank’s capital requirements, he has softened his stance on the importance of maintaining a Swiss financial champion, those people said.
两人均表示,他们希望继续从瑞士管理全球UBS业务,但承认可能会有那么一天,这将变得不可能。一位熟悉银行内部思考的人士表示,董事会主席和首席执行官在此问题上完全保持一致。
Both men have said they want to keep running a global UBS from Switzerland, but that there might come a point when that isn’t possible. A person familiar with the bank’s thinking said the chairman and CEO are fully aligned on the issue.
关于瑞银集团可能进行并购的传闻甚嚣尘上。分析人士指出,潜在的合作伙伴包括摩根士丹利以及多家美国区域性银行。2019年,《华尔街日报》曾报道称,瑞银集团与德意志银行曾探讨过业务合并的可能性。据熟悉瑞银内部情况的人士透露,任何并购交易都必须能吸引更多美国地区的财富管理客户,或提供接触这些客户的新渠道。
Speculation about a deal involving UBS has run rampant. Potential partners cited by analysts include Morgan Stanley and U.S. regional banks. In 2019, The Wall Street Journal reported that UBS and Deutsche Bank had explored ways to combine their businesses. Any deal likely would have to bring in more U.S. wealth clients, or provide new ways to reach them, people close to UBS said.
今年瑞银集团的股价有所上涨,但表现仍逊于国际同行。投资者认为,这一状况与市场对资本需求的讨论密切相关。目前瑞银的市值约为1550亿美元,低于美国竞争对手摩根士丹利的2800亿美元以及高盛的约2600亿美元。
UBS shares are up this year but have lagged behind their international peers, a factor that investors attribute to the debate over capital. The bank has a market value of around $155 billion, below that of American rivals Morgan Stanley, at $280 billion, and Goldman Sachs, at around $260 billion.
在美国,瑞银最为人熟知的是其财富管理业务——该业务涵盖了原属PaineWebber的顾问网络;此外其投资银行业务也名列全美前十,负责股票交易并为企业提供股票与债券发行方面的咨询服务。
UBS is best known in the U.S. for its wealth business, which includes the former PaineWebber adviser network, as well as its investment bank, which ranks among the top 10 and trades equities and advises companies on stock and bond deals.
瑞银自称是专为亿万富翁服务的银行,目前为数十万美国百万富翁提供服务。它还是亚洲规模最大的财富管理机构,在中东及其他财富增长迅速的市场也颇具影响力。
UBS bills itself as the bank for billionaires and serves hundreds of thousands of American millionaires. It is the largest wealth manager in Asia and a force in the Middle East and other growing wealth markets.
分析人士提醒,瑞银还需审慎考量美国银行业监管政策未来的可能变化。
Analysts have cautioned that UBS has to consider how U.S. banking regulation might evolve over time.
“企业就像植物,”莱格教授说道,“你可以把它们移栽到别处,但它们能否在那里茁壮成长呢?”
“Firms are like plants,” said Legge, the professor. “You can take them and plant them somewhere else, but will they grow there?”
可发送邮件至Margot Patrick(margot.patrick@wsj.com)、Cara Lombardo(cara.lombardo@wsj.com)以及AnnaMaria Andriotis(annamaria.andriotis@wsj.com)。
Write to Margot Patrick at margot.patrick@wsj.com, Cara Lombardo at cara.lombardo@wsj.com and AnnaMaria Andriotis at annamaria.andriotis@wsj.com