德国民粹右翼政党“德国选择党”（AfD）的联合领导人爱丽丝·魏德尔有充分理由相信她的时刻已经到来。她的党在民意调查中建立了巨大的领先优势，并有望在萨克森-安哈尔特州组建其首个政府。在俯瞰柏林施普雷河的联邦议院会议室进行的75分钟采访中，她表现得自信且流畅。然而，弄清楚魏德尔到底主张什么可能颇具挑战性。
Europe | An interview with the AfD’s leader The populist-right politician says Ukraine has “already lost” against Russia and should sue for peace |BERLIN|4 min read ALICE WEIDEL, co-leader of Germany’s populist-right Alternative for Germany (afd), has good reason to think her moment has arrived. Her party has opened up a wide polling lead and stands on the cusp of running its first-ever government, in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. In the course of a 75-minute interview in a Bundestag meeting room overlooking Berlin’s river Spree, she offers a confident and fluent performance. Nonetheless, working out what Ms Weidel stands for can prove elusive.
她反对的内容很明确。首先是德国对乌克兰抵御弗拉基米尔·普京入侵的支持。她称这是徒劳的：乌克兰“太小”，而且“已经输了”。德国应对乌克兰总统施加“压力”以结束冲突。政策应遵循“德国优先”原则，包括效仿唐纳德·特朗普与俄罗斯的柴油交易。
What she opposes is clear. Start with German backing for Ukraine’s defence against Vladimir Putin’s invasion. Futile, she says: Ukraine is “too small” and has “already lost”. Germany should apply “pressure on the Ukrainian president” to end the killing. Policy must follow “Germany first” principles, including by emulating Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Russia.
更糟的是，延续战争“危及德国”，因为这可能使德国成为目标。这一点站得住脚，因为俄罗斯对北约盟友的混合攻击表明了这一点。然而，魏德尔不愿将俄罗斯称为威胁。德国最近指责克莱姆林对莱比锡机场一次失败的无人机袭击负责。但魏德尔表示，她未看到任何证据表明俄罗斯与此“所谓的未遂无人机袭击”有关。无论如何，人们对乌克兰可能袭击北溪天然气管道的假设又如何？
Worse, prolonging the war “endangers Germany” since it could become a target. This is plausible, as Russia’s hybrid attacks on nato allies suggest. And yet Ms Weidel is reluctant to call out Russia as a threat. Germany recently blamed the Kremlin for a failed drone attack at Leipzig airport. But Ms Weidel says she has seen no evidence that Russia was behind this “so-called attempted drone attack”. Anyway, what about the presumed Ukrainian bombing of the Nord Stream gas pipelines?
这种修辞柔道是她的习惯。当被问及普京想要和平的迹象时，魏德尔把问题抛回去：那弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基呢？她承认俄罗斯在2022年是侵略者，但补充道：“当外交坐上谈判桌时，历史也坐在那里。”她的意思是，几十年来西方一直忽视俄罗斯的安全关切，而必须停止这样做。
This rhetorical judo is a habit. Asked for signs that Mr Putin wants peace, Ms Weidel throws the question back: what about Volodymyr Zelensky? She accepts Russia was the aggressor in 2022, but adds, “when diplomacy is at the table, history is sitting there too.”She means that for decades the West ignored Russia’s security concerns, and must stop doing so.
自称“自由意志主义保守派”的魏德尔女士对德国支出激增表示愤慨，她称这将导致其利息支出在三年内翻倍。分析人士表示，德国选择党的预算提议经不起推敲。但魏德尔坚持认为，削减能源补贴、对外援助和福利可以为减税和减债提供资金。她没有将国防纳入考虑范围，而国防恰恰占新增借款的最大份额。事实上，她承认“我们将不得不增加支出”。但她没有提供细节，只是简单地谴责德国对乌克兰的支持。
Ms Weidel, a self-styled “libertarian conservative”, fulminates against Germany’s surge in spending, which she says will lead its interest payments to double in three years. Analysts say the afd’s budget proposals do not add up. But Ms Weidel insists that slashing energy subsidies, foreign aid and welfare can pay for tax cuts and debt reduction. She does not include defence, which accounts for the largest share of new borrowing. Indeed, she accepts “we will have to spend more”. But rather than offer details she simply condemns German support for Ukraine.
至于欧元，魏德尔女士表示，德国选择党试图退出欧元区的说法是“神话”（尽管其去年大选的纲领实际上主张退出）。相反，她希望进行彻底改革，使欧洲央行停止为“高负债”国家提供融资。勒庞希望实现“免费债务融资”，尽管法国已经陷入巨额债务危机。欧洲“肯定”将面临债券市场危机。
As for the euro, it is a “myth” that the afd seeks to leave, says Ms Weidel (though its manifesto in last year’s election in effect urged exit). Instead she wants thorough reform such that the European Central Bank stops financing “highly indebted” countries. Marine Le Pen wants “free debt financing, even though France is already in a huge debt crisis”. Europe is “certainly” headed for a bond-market crisis.
只有一个问题会让她恼火。魏德尔女士称，认为德国选择党藏匿极端分子的说法“完全站不住脚”，尽管该党无数人物曾与民族主义或新纳粹组织有关联。关于“再移民”——这一民粹右翼喜爱的模糊术语——魏德尔女士表示，它仅仅意味着遣返庇护申请失败者及类似人员。由于叙利亚内战已经结束，“100%的叙利亚公民”必须返回，阿富汗人以及德国境内100万以上的乌克兰人也必须如此，一旦她所声称的和平临近成为现实。“四到五百万人”将不得不离开。
Only one question irritates her. Ms Weidel calls the suggestion that the afd harbours extremists “completely unfounded”, although countless party figures have been linked to ethnonationalist or neo-Nazi groups. On “remigration”, a slippery term beloved of the populist right, Ms Weidel says it simply means deporting failed asylum-seekers and the like. Since Syria’s civil war is over, “100% of the Syrian citizens” must return, as must Afghans and the 1m-plus Ukrainians in Germany, once the peace she claims is close takes hold. “Four to five million” will have to go.
相比之下，“希望在这里工作的专业人士”受到欢迎。“我爱它！我党人人都爱它！”魏德尔女士欢呼道。那么她是否否认萨克森-安哈尔特州同事的观点？他们最近的纲领曾抨击“文化异域的熟练工人”？完全不是。事实上，德国应吸引的外国劳动者因融合失败而望而却步。
“Professionals who want to work here”, by contrast, are welcome. “I love it! Everyone loves it in my party!” exclaims Ms Weidel. So does she disavow her colleagues in Saxony-Anhalt whose recent manifesto railed against “culturally alien skilled workers”? Not at all. Indeed, the foreign workers that Germany should aim to attract are put off by failures of integration.
在喧嚣背后潜藏着一位精明的政治管理者。她坚决捍卫德国选择党（AfD）最具争议性的人物比约恩·赫克，后者因使用被禁纳粹口号而被罚款。但她曾试图将其开除，却发现他拥有过多的支持者。魏德尔个人未能赢得选民的好感（见图表）。但她善于选择战场、在必要时寻求和解的能力，是她最宝贵的政治资产。
Behind the bluster lurks a skilled political manager. She forcefully defends Björn Höcke, the afd’s most divisive figure, who has been fined for using a banned Nazi slogan. But she once tried to have him expelled, only to discover he commanded too much support. Ms Weidel has personally failed to capture voters’ affections (see chart). But her ability to pick her battles, suing for peace where necessary, is her most valuable political asset.
这能否延伸至其他德国政党？所有主流政党在所谓的“Brandmauer”（防火墙）政策下，将AfD排除在联盟之外。魏德尔称，这迫使投票支持右翼政策的国家接受左翼政府。但若Brandmauer倒塌，谈判联盟将要求AfD作出妥协，主要是与中右翼基民盟（CDU）妥协。而这并非魏德尔所愿。她反问道：“为什么我们要这样？”她接着说：“在我们的主要议题上……不存在妥协的空间。基民盟必须先行让步。如果它不行动，行动不够快，它就会灭亡。” ■ 要紧跟欧洲重大新闻，请订阅我们的《欧洲咖啡馆》周刊专属新闻通讯。
Might that extend to other German parties? All mainstream outfits exclude the afd from coalitions under the so-called Brandmauer (firewall) policy. This, Ms Weidel alleges, forces a country that votes for right-wing policies to accept left-wing governments. Yet should the Brandmauer fall, negotiating coalitions would require the afd to compromise, primarily with the centre-right Christian Democrats (cdu). And this is not to Ms Weidel’s taste. “Why should we?” she asks. “On our main points…there are no compromises to be made. The cdu has to move first. And if it doesn’t move quickly, it will perish.” ■ To stay on top of the biggest European stories, sign up to Café Europa, our weeklyr-only newsletter.
特朗普正在勒索乌克兰的军事生命线 为保护他的俄罗斯柴油交易，他似乎在扣留关键军事情报 4分钟阅读 欧洲博物馆正经历高价值艺术盗窃案的激增 别再想猫贼了。如今的小偷砸窗、抢夺、逃跑 《欧洲咖啡馆》通讯：马可·鲁比奥可疑的历史课 马特·斯廷格拉斯，我们的欧洲编辑，指出了这个大陆的斯巴达人。
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