要寻找新数据中心的选址，只需留意起重机。密歇根州塞林镇的田野上空约有一 dozen 台起重机高耸，方圆数英里内均可见。另一个线索是水泥搅拌车在道路上缓缓行驶的车队，噪音大且持续不断。当位于塞林的 OpenAI 和甲骨文项目“谷仓”完工时，其用电量将超过一个中等规模城市。
To spot the site of a new data centre, look for the cranes. About a dozen soar over the fields of Saline township, Michigan, visible for miles around. Another hint is the convoy of cement-mixers trundling down the road, loudly and constantly. When the OpenAI and Oracle project in Saline, “The Barn”, is finished, it will consume more power than a midsize city.
就在其旁边的是乡村格林高尔夫俱乐部，那里有几位当地人对该项目持热情态度。“他们一直在和我们交谈，并且将为我们做很多好事，”一名收银员说道。数据中心开发商已收购该俱乐部，并承诺注入资金。站在道路对面拖拉机上的农夫弗雷德给出了更典型的反应：“我对它没有任何好话可说……那是一块美丽的农田，而他们毁掉了它。”附近酿酒吧的饮酒者也持相同看法，只是表达得更为礼貌一些，并抱怨高尔夫球手们被买通了。
Beside it is the Rustic Glen Golf Club, where a few locals are enthusiastic about the project. “They’ve been talking to us, and they’re going to do a lot of nice things for us,” says a cashier. The data-centre developers have bought the club and have promised to inject cash. Fred, a farmer standing atop a tractor across the road, offers a more typical reaction: “There’s nothing good I can say about it…that was a beautiful piece of farmland, and they destroyed it.”Drinkers at a nearby brewery say the same, a little more politely, and grouse that the golfers were paid off.
全美各地，数据中心正以惊人的速度崛起。自去年11月以来，用于建设数据中心的资金（不含其中昂贵的芯片）已超过新建办公楼的投入（见图表1）。特朗普总统警告称，反对数据中心的地区可能变得“落后和贫穷”，但共和党候选人正试图更贴近像弗雷德这样的选民。在密歇根州，共和党参议员候选人迈克·罗杰斯支持暂停数据中心建设。然而，此类举措可能已经太晚。我们对民意调查数据的分析表明，随着人们对数据中心的焦虑日益加剧，这些项目似乎正在将选民推向民主党。
Across America, data centres are popping up at startling speed. Since last November more money has been spent building data centres—not including the expensive chips inside them—than new offices (see chart 1). President Donald Trump has warned that places opposed to data centres risk becoming “backwards and poor”, but Republican candidates are trying to be more attuned to voters like Fred. In Michigan Mike Rogers, a Republican Senate candidate, supports a pause on building. Such moves may be too late. Our analysis of polling data suggests that, as anxiety over data centres grows, the projects seem to be pushing voters towards Democrats.
我们使用开源数据中心位置库 Compute Atlas，将经济学人/尤戈夫每周调查的近 15 万名受访者与其最近的数据中心进行匹配。全国范围内的选民正在向民主党倾斜，但对于居住在数据中心 2 公里范围内的人来说，这种倾斜更为明显。居住在数据中心附近的美国人支持民主党的可能性比居住在更远地区的人高出约六个百分点（见图表 2）。六个月前还不存在这样的差异。
We matched almost 150,000 respondents from the Economist/YouGov weekly survey with their nearest data centre, using Compute Atlas, an open-source repository of such sites. Voters across the country are shifting towards Democrats, but for those living within 2km of a data centre the veer has been even sharper. Americans who live near a data-centre site are around six percentage points more likely to support the Democrats than those who live further away (see chart 2). Six months ago there was no such difference.
对于正在俄亥俄州流传反对数据中心请愿书的布兰登来说，这一问题已经把他从共和党人转变为摇摆选民。他说，地方共和党人拒绝帮助他的事业，但“民主党人表现得非常出色”。密歇根州和俄亥俄州已经拥有比其他任何州都多的地方性暂停令。
For Brandon, who is circulating a petition against data centres in Ohio, the issue has turned him from a Republican into a swing voter. Local Republicans refused to help his cause, he says, but “the Democrats have been amazing.”Michigan and Ohio are already home to more local moratoriums than any other states.
数据中心为何成为政治焦点？在数十次交谈中，选民很少直接提出与人工智能相关的担忧。最常见的担忧是实际问题，比如水污染、电费上涨或房价受损。无论是政客们承诺项目将自给自足，还是开发商试图用金钱平息担忧，似乎都没有起到多大作用。无论事实如何，当选民对政府和大企业都深感不信任时，实际保证几乎不起作用：对两者的信任度都接近 50 年来的低点。
Why have data centres caught fire politically? Throughout dozens of conversations, voters seldom brought up AI-related concerns directly. The most common fears were practical ones, about water pollution, higher electricity bills or a hit to house prices. Neither politicians’ promises that the projects will pay their own way nor developers’ efforts to bat away concerns with cash seem to have done much good. Whatever the truth is, practical assurances count for little when voters so deeply distrust both government and big businesses: confidence in each is near 50-year lows.
到目前为止，所有这些反对的实际影响仍然有限。研究公司 SemiAnalysis 的玛雅·巴尔金发现，只有 2.3 吉瓦的项目可能因暂停令而被推迟（见图表 3）。但随着不满情绪的增长，政治影响更加确定。■ 通过我们的每日简报《美国要闻》获取快速分析，了解最重要的政治新闻；并通过每周一期的《制衡》栏目，审视美国民主的现状以及与选民息息相关的议题。
The real-world effect of all that opposition has, so far, been limited. Maya Barkin of SemiAnalysis, a research firm, finds that only 2.3 gigawatts’ worth of projects are likely to be delayed by moratoriums (see chart 3). But with discontent growing, the political impact is more assured. ■ Stay on top of American politics with The US in brief, our daily newsletter with fast analysis of the most important political news, and Checks and Balance, a weekly note that examines the state of American democracy and the issues that matter to voters.