巴西利亚，10月15日 - 随着巴西总统选举第二轮竞选进入最后阶段，两名候选人都将财政调整计划聚焦在政治上可接受的措施上，这进一步印证了经济学家的观点：遏制该国债务负担上升的策略只有在选举之后才会浮出水面。
BRASILIA, Oct 15 - As Brazil's presidential runoff campaign enters its final stretch, both candidates are focusing plans for fiscal adjustments on politically palatable measures, reinforcing economists' views that strategies to curb the country's rising debt burden will only come to light after the election.
在现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦的现任任期内，该国的总债务已上升超过10个百分点，达到国内生产总值（GDP）的82.9%。卢拉作为左翼现任总统，正寻求连任，此前他在本月早些时候的第一轮投票中意外落后于参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗。
The country's gross debt has risen more than 10 percentage points during President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's current term, reaching 82.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), as the leftist incumbent seeks reelection after unexpectedly trailing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round earlier this month.
右翼博尔索纳罗参加竞选时承诺将实施更快速的财政调整，目标是在18个月内实现初级收支改善1.5%的国内生产总值，以引发信心冲击并降低借贷成本。
Right-wing Bolsonaro entered the race promising a faster fiscal adjustment, targeting a 1.5% of GDP improvement in the primary balance within 18 months to trigger a confidence shock and lower borrowing costs.
自博尔索纳罗在第一轮投票中获胜以来，长期利率已大幅下降，反映出投资者对政府可能更替的乐观预期，尽管他的竞选团队尚未说明这种调整将如何实施。
Long-term interest rates have fallen sharply since Bolsonaro's first-round victory, reflecting investor optimism about a potential change in government, although his campaign has yet to explain how such an adjustment would be delivered.
卢拉的竞选团队也承诺了财政紧缩，尽管步伐较慢，同时表示削减开支不应落在巴西低收入群体身上，这一信息已经定义了总统的经济议程。
Lula's campaign has also pledged fiscal consolidation, albeit at a slower pace, while saying that spending cuts should not fall on lower-income Brazilians, a message that has defined the president's economic agenda.
随着民意调查显示博尔索纳罗以微弱优势领先，两个竞选团队一直坚持政治上安全的财政提案，回避那些将解决巴西财政前景恶化结构性原因的措施，分析人士表示。
With polls showing Bolsonaro ahead by a narrow margin, both campaigns have stuck to politically safe fiscal proposals, sidestepping measures that would tackle the structural causes of Brazil's worsening fiscal outlook, analysts say.
经济学家普遍认为，主要挑战在于强制性支出的快速增长和日益僵化的预算。去年，联邦政府的自由裁量性支出仅占总支出的约7.6%，而2000年这一比例为14.2%，当时巴西联邦预算委员会系列数据开始。
Economists broadly agree that the main challenge lies in the rapid growth of mandatory spending and an increasingly rigid budget. The federal government's discretionary spending accounted for only about 7.6% of total expenditures last year, versus 14.2% in 2000, when Brazil's Federal Budget Panel series began.
博尔索纳罗的经济顾问丹妮埃拉·马尔克斯驳斥了未来政府将削减社会福利的说法，称养老金和福利计划将不受影响。
Bolsonaro's economic adviser Daniella Marques rejected suggestions that a future administration would reduce social benefits, saying pensions and welfare programs would be untouched.
“通过削减政府自身的过度开支，可以让政府运转起来，”马尔克斯周三在接受广播电台Band采访时表示，她指出，这包括削减政治任命和部门机构等措施。
"You can make the government work by cutting its own excesses," Marques told broadcaster Band on Wednesday, pointing to things like cuts in political appointments and ministries, among other measures.
卢拉的竞选搭档杰拉尔多·阿尔克明则认为，财政紧缩应聚焦于解决竞选资金问题以及一些公共部门雇员获得的过高薪酬。
Lula's running mate Geraldo Alckmin has argued fiscal consolidation should focus on tackling campaign funding and outsized salaries earned by some public-sector workers.
巴西贷款机构Inter的首席经济学家拉法埃拉·维多利亚表示，两个竞选团队均未直面为稳定债务所需的更深层次改革。
Neither campaign has confronted the deeper reforms required to stabilize debt, said Rafaela Vitoria, chief economist at Brazilian lender Inter.
“短期内没有神奇的解决方案，”她说。“在选举期间，关于结构性措施的辩论极其困难，因为这些措施不受欢迎。”
"There is no short-term magic solution," she said. "The debate on structural measures is extremely difficult during an election campaign because they are unpopular."
维多利亚还说，逐步调整仍然是可行的，并补充称，关于福利指数化规则、强制性支出以及重叠的社会项目的讨论很可能要等到选举结束后才会展开。
Gradual adjustment remains feasible, Vitoria said, adding that discussions over benefit indexation rules, mandatory spending and overlapping social programs will likely have to wait until after the election.