安联环球投资者的一位投资组合经理表示，印度频繁更改外汇规则以支撑卢比，可能削弱政策可预测性，并导致货币市场流动性分散。印度对卢比的支持现在已超出市场干预，延伸至旨在影响对冲的措施。
India’s frequent foreign-exchange rule changes to shore up the rupee risk undermining policy predictability and fragmenting currency market liquidity, a portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors said. India’s support for the rupee now extends beyond market intervention to measures aimed at influencing hedging.
为抑制市场对美元的需求，印度储备银行提高了进口商为未来经常账户支付进行套期保值的成本，而出口商则未受任何影响。该行还进一步提高了银行在特定交易中购买外币的成本，并禁止企业重新履行已取消的外汇合约——这一限制措施最初于4月份出台，后因银行界的反馈而暂时取消。
The Reserve Bank of India, seeking to discourage dollar demand, has made it more expensive for importers to hedge future current-account payments, while leaving exporters unaffected. The central bank has further raised the cost of buying foreign currency for certain transactions for banks and barred companies from rebooking cancelled FX contracts, reinstating a restriction it first introduced in April and later withdrew following feedback from bankers.”
“套期保值相关规则的频繁变动，可能会让外国投资者对印度市场的流动性状况、套期保值效率以及政策可预测性产生顾虑，”安联环球投资公司的资深投资组合经理安哲毅指出。该公司管理的资产规模超过6500亿欧元。他补充道，合法的套期保值操作可能会被推迟、缩短，甚至转移至境外进行，进而导致境内外外汇市场出现割裂。银行界人士表示，目前境外市场的套期保值成本已显著低于境内水平，这种反常现象正是市场割裂的明证。
The repeated changes to hedging rules could make foreign investors more cautious around liquidity, hedging efficiency and policy predictability,” said Ze Yi Ang, senior portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, which manages more than 650 billion euros in assets. Legitimate hedging could be delayed, shortened or shifted offshore, leading to segmentation of the onshore and offshore markets, he added. This is already on display with offshore hedging costs having fallen well below onshore levels, an unusual divergence, bankers said.
安哲毅认为，尽管印度储备银行采取这些措施旨在避免汇率出现无序波动，但也存在相应的代价。“越来越多地借助监管手段来引导外汇市场走向，可能会减少境内市场的流动性，也会让投资者对自身能否顺利管理汇率风险产生疑虑。”利率上调或成下一道防线鉴于外汇市场管控措施已然大幅收紧，若卢比仍面临贬值压力，印度储备银行或将把利率调整作为下一道防御手段。
While the RBI’s steps are justified to prevent disorderly currency moves, there is a trade-off, Ang said.”The increasing use of regulatory measures to influence FX market behaviour could reduce onshore liquidity and make investors more cautious about how easily they can manage currency risk,” he said.RATE HIKES THE NEXT DEFENCEWith FX rules already tightened significantly, the RBI may make interest rates its next line of defence if pressure on the rupee persists, according to Ang.
本月该行将政策利率上调了25个基点，这是近四年来首次加息，同时也标志着其货币政策转向渐进式收紧，暗示后续可能还会继续加息。而通胀水平的回升也为进一步收紧政策提供了依据。
The central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points this month, its first hike in nearly four years, and shifted to a calibrated tightening stance, signalling more could follow.A pickup in inflation adds to the case for tighter policy.
零售通胀率从8月的4.82%加速上升至9月的5.54%，创下今年最高水平，并连续第四个月高于印度储备银行（RBI）4%的目标。这为央行进一步加息提供了国内理由，即使货币稳定性成为更紧迫的考量因素，安格表示。“风险已转向更快、可能更大幅度的加息周期，尤其是如果外汇储备损失持续处于高位、通胀继续出乎意料地上行，以及卢比再次承压，”他说。
Retail inflation accelerated to 5.54% in September from 4.82% in August, its highest level this year and the fourth straight month above the RBI’s 4% target. That gives the central bank a domestic rationale for further hikes, even as currency stability becomes a more pressing consideration, Ang said.”The risks have shifted towards a faster and possibly larger hiking cycle, particularly if reserve losses remain elevated, inflation continues to surprise on the upside, and the rupee comes under renewed pressure,” he said.