明年无论谁在11月获胜，都请对国会山的领导人多一些同情。
Have some sympathy for Capitol Hill's leaders next year, no matter who wins in November. ** Why it matters:**
为什么重要：下一届国会将有千百种令人痛苦的方式。而四大领袖中的三人预计将获得两年合同延期，伴随的是漫长的深夜、糟糕的日子和易怒的脾气。
The next Congress promises a thousand different ways to be miserable. And three of the big four leaders are expected to receive a two-year contract extension, with guaranteed long nights, bad days and short tempers.
- 第四位领袖 — — 众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（共和党-路易斯安那州） — — 的命运取决于选举结果。
• The fate of the fourth — Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) — rests on the outcome of the election. ** The best (and worst) news**
最好（也是最坏）的消息对于参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（共和党-南达科他州）而言，如果他愿意，担任党领袖的职位很可能属于他，即使共和党失去多数席位。
for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is that the job as party leader is likely his if he wants it, even if Republicans lose the majority.
- 像他担任领袖的头两年一样，图恩接下来的两年将充斥着来自掌控其政党、打压对手并质疑其勇气的总统的不断质疑，甚至更糟。
• Like his first two years as leader, Thune's next two will be marked by constant second-guessing, or worse, from a president who commands his party, crushes his opponents and questions Thune's courage.
- 还有共和党基础。MAGA影响者对图恩不愿尝试废除阻碍议事程序（filibuster）并强行通过选民身份法案感到愤怒。
• Then there's the GOP base. MAGA influencers are seething over Thune's reluctance to try to nuke the filibuster and jam through a voter-ID bill. Between the lines:
言之间：图恩的四位知己 — — 国土安全部部长（及前参议员）马克韦恩·穆林以及参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯（共和党-蒙大拿州）、玛莎·布莱克本（共和党-田纳西州）和约翰·科宁（共和党-得克萨斯州） — — 已离开或正在离开该机构。
Four of Thune's confidants — DHS Secretary (and former senator) Markwayne Mullin and Sens. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) — have left or are leaving the building.
- 一批新的众议院保守派将加入参议院。他们很可能希望快速行动并制造突破。
• A fresh class of House conservatives will arrive in the Senate. They're likely to want to move fast and break things.
谜团：参议员里克·斯科特（共和党-佛罗里达州）尚未宣布第三次竞选党领袖，但国会山上许多共和党人怀疑他会这么做。斯科特 notably 在九月收回了对图恩的支持。
The intrigue: Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) has not announced a third attempt to lead his party, but plenty of Republicans on the Hill suspect he will. Scott notably backtracked on his support for Thune in September.
- 但图恩无需担心他的二号人物。参议院多数党鞭约翰·巴拉索（共和党-怀俄明州） — — 若图恩下台，他将是头号竞争者 — — 已加倍坚定其支持。
• But Thune doesn't have to worry about his number two. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) — who would be the top contender if Thune stepped down — has doubled down on his support.
图恩与议长约翰逊的关系全年一直紧张。如果共和党失去众议院多数席位，图恩可能发现自己需要与新任众议院领袖进行协调和策划。
** Thune's relationship with Speaker Johnson** has been rocky throughout the year If Republicans lose the House majority, Thune could find himself coordinating and strategizing with a new House leader.
- 约翰逊的大多数同事不认为如果众议院易手，他会继续留任。然而，在竞选活动的最后几周，约翰逊一直在扮演哈姆雷特，公开地考虑他的下一步行动。
• Most of Johnson's colleagues don't expect him to stay if the House flips. However, in the campaign's final weeks, Johnson has been playing Hamlet, publicly entertaining his next moves.
- 无论约翰逊是否在舞台上，多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯（共和党-路易斯安那州）和众议员吉姆·乔丹（共和党-俄亥俄州）都被广泛视为主要竞争者。
• With or without Johnson on stage, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) are widely viewed as top contenders.
参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默（民主党-纽约州）在担任民主党领袖的职位上似乎很稳固。但他在该职位上的任期长度 — — 或在参议院的任期 — — 则不然。
** Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer** (D-N.Y.) appears secure in his job as Democratic leader. His longevity in the role — or the Senate — is not.
- 他将在2028年参加连竞选，并可能面临来自众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（民主党-纽约州）的初选挑战。许多民主党人预计他将退休。
• He's up for reelection in 2028 and could face a primary challenge from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Many Democrats expect him to retire.
- 一种可能的结果是：YOLO 查克，一位76岁的多数党领袖，拥有愤怒的基础和雄心勃勃的同事，但没有什么可失去的。
• One possible result: YOLO Chuck, a 76-year-old majority leader with an angry base and ambitious colleagues, but nothing to lose. ** One urgent task for Schumer**
舒默的一项紧急任务是与众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（民主党-纽约州）保持一致，他的进步派成员对舒默和参议院持有强烈感受。
is to get on the same page as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), whose progressive members have some strong feelings about Schumer and the Senate.
- 杰弗里斯和舒默在2025年3月对政府资金的筹措采取了截然不同的做法。这些分歧在多数党中会更难以处理，尤其是如果杰弗里斯难以维持其阵营内的纪律。
• Jeffries and Schumer took dramatically different approaches to funding the government in March 2025. These differences would be harder to manage in the majority, especially if Jeffries struggles to maintain discipline within his ranks.
- 然而，杰弗里斯 — — 像舒默和图恩一样 — — 目前看来没有任何强有力的竞争者角逐党领袖职位。
• However, Jeffries — like Schumer and Thune — doesn't appear to have any formidable challengers for party leader.
- 杰弗里斯可能会面临约翰逊曾经遇到的许多同样头痛的问题 — — 他的党内一个派别以反建制原则参选，且其投票不可依赖。
• Jeffries could face many of the same headaches Johnson did — a wing of his party that ran on anti-establishment principles and whose votes cannot be counted on. What we're watching:
我们正在关注的事项：特朗普和舒默的关系复杂，但总统已表示他视杰弗里斯为一个他可以合作的人。
Trump and Schumer have a complicated relationship But the president has indicated he sees Jeffries as someone he could work with.