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图恩大胆预测共和党参议院选情,尽管共和党正从关键选战中撤走数百万美元Thune makes bold prediction about Republicans' Senate chances as GOP pulls millions from key races

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参议院多数党领袖、南达科他州共和党人约翰·图恩在抵达美国国会大厦后走向自己的办公室时与记者交谈,时间为2026年9月28日,地点在华盛顿特区。参议员们将返回国会山再工作一周,随后休会迎接中期选举。(盖蒂图片社)Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., talks with reporters as he walks to his office after arriving at the U.S. Capitol on Sept. 28, 2026, in Washington, D.C. Senators will return to Capitol Hill for one more week before breaking for the midterm election. (Getty Images)

内布拉斯加州弗里蒙特——参议院多数党领袖、南达科他州共和党人约翰·图恩预测,共和党将比民调表现更好,并保住其微弱的参议院多数席位,尽管与此同时,与共和党结盟的团体正从陷入困境的候选人那里撤走数百万美元,并将资源转向那些突然变得更具竞争性的选战。

FREMONT, Neb. — Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is predicting Republicans will outperform the polls and retain their narrow Senate majority, even as GOP-aligned groups pull millions of dollars from struggling candidates and redirect resources to races that have suddenly become more competitive.

在11月3日选举之前,图恩一直奔走全国,为处境脆弱的共和党人助选。他相信他们能够守住参议院53比47席的微弱多数,但也承认共和党整体上面临逆风。

Thune has been crisscrossing the country campaigning for vulnerable Republicans ahead of the Nov. 3 election. He’s confident that they can hold onto their slim, 53-to-47-seat majority in the Senate but acknowledges that the GOP as a whole faces headwinds.

随着选举日越来越近,全国多场选战差距缩小,比如堪萨斯州;而另一些则可能正从共和党手中滑落,比如北卡罗来纳州或佐治亚州。

And as Election Day inches closer and closer, several contests across the country have tightened, like in Kansas, while others may be slipping away from Republicans, like in North Carolina or Georgia.

图恩在为内布拉斯加州共和党参议员皮特·里基茨助选的行程中接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时,仍对共和党的机会表示乐观。

Thune, in an interview with Fox News Digital on the trail supporting Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb., was still optimistic about the GOP’s chances. "I think there are a lot of races right now just looking at the polling that are up for grabs," Thune said.

“我认为目前看民调,有很多选战都胜负难料,”图恩说。“我是说,你可以称它们为争球,随你怎么说。它们是误差范围内的选战,也有一些可能略微超出误差范围。但我确实认为,目前的民调就像以往选举中一样,低估了共和党的得票。”“而且我认为你会看到一些这样的情况。所以我们不会放弃其中任何一场,”他继续说道。

"I mean you could call them jump balls, however you want to say it. They're margin of error races, and there are some that are maybe a little out of the margin. But I do think the polling right now, like it has been in past elections, under-reflects the Republican vote." "And I think you'll see some of that. So we're not giving up on any of them," he continued.

根据《库克政治报告》,共和党人希望在本轮选举周期捍卫六场胜负难料的选战。而几场早些时候看似稳操胜券的选战,比如密西西比州和南卡罗来纳州,最近已转向对民主党更有利。

Republicans are hoping to defend six toss-up races this cycle, according to Cook Political Report. And several that earlier appeared as safe bets, like Mississippi and South Carolina, have recently shifted more favorably towards Democrats.

12场选战搅动参议院战场,民主党人着眼翻盘。本轮中期选举周期中,竞选资金流动惊人,共和党政治行动委员会(PAC)和外部团体在全国关键选战中投入了数亿美元。但资金转向何处可能更能说明问题。

12 RACES SCRAMBLE SENATE BATTLEFIELD AS DEMOCRATS EYE COMEBACK The flow of campaign cash has been staggering during this midterm cycle, with Republican political action committees (PACs) and outside groups dumping hundreds of millions of dollars in key races across the country. But where the money is being shifted could be more telling.

本月早些时候,与参议员汤姆·瑟恩(Tom Thune)关系密切的参议院领导基金(Senate Leadership Fund)将资金从佐治亚州转移到了堪萨斯州。在那里,共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔(Roger Marshall)正在参加一场结果难以预测的竞选活动。

Earlier this month, the Senate Leadership Fund, a PAC closely aligned with Thune, moved money from Georgia to Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., is locked in one of the more unexpected toss-up contests of the cycle. The Senate Leadership Fund had initially pledged $44 million to bolster Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., in his quest to topple Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga.

该基金最初承诺投入4400万美元,以支持共和党众议员迈克·柯林斯(Mike Collins)击败民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)。然而,这位现任参议员一直在持续获得大量竞选捐款,并在民意调查中始终领先于柯林斯。

But the incumbent first-term senator has been raking in campaign donations and consistently led Collins in polling. DEMOCRATS SEE NEW CHANCES TO FLIP RED STATES — BUT A $400M GOP SPENDING ADVANTAGE COULD DERAIL THEIR PLANS And in North Carolina, where former Republican National Committee (RNC) co-chair Michael Whatley is running to keep retiring Sen. Thom Tillis’ seat red against former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, outside funding has begun to dissipate.

2026年10月13日,总统唐纳德·特朗普抵达阿拉斯加州瓦西拉市的柯蒂斯·D·梅纳德纪念体育中心,准备在一场竞选集会上发表讲话。(肯特·西村 / 法新社 via 盖蒂图片社)President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a campaign rally at Curtis D. Menard Memorial Sports Center in Wasilla, Alaska, on Oct. 13, 2026. (Kent NISHIMURA / AFP via Getty Images)

民主党人认为他们有机会在这些原本属于共和党的州中扭转局势;不过,共和党在竞选资金上的4亿美元优势可能会破坏他们的计划。在北卡罗来纳州,前共和党全国委员会(RNC)联合主席迈克尔·沃特利(Michael Whatley)正在参选,试图阻止前州长罗伊·库珀(Roy Cooper)赢得该州的参议院席位。不过,外界对该选情的支持正在逐渐减弱。

The Senate Leadership Fund similarly pulled back nearly all of its spending in the state earlier this month, a sign that confidence in Whatley’s ability to best Cooper was waning. Even President Donald Trump, who held a rally for Whatley on Tuesday, is worried about the race.

同样,参议院领导基金也于本月早些时候大幅削减了在该州的竞选支出,这表明人们对沃特利击败库珀的能力越来越缺乏信心。就连唐纳德·特朗普总统也在为沃特利举行集会,并表示对这场竞选感到担忧。特朗普本月早些时候对记者说:“我认为他是个很棒的人,但我很担心他的竞选结果。我希望他能获胜;在我当选总统期间,他是整个共和党的杰出领袖,他也会成为一名出色的参议员。”

"I think he’s a great man, and I am worried about him," Trump told reporters earlier this month. "I hope he wins. He was a great leader for the whole Republican Party when I won, and he’d be a great senator." Meanwhile, Thune was still bullish that Republicans could hold on, but ultimately, it would come down to getting the "low propensity, particularly Trump, voters out, and then you've got to work on winning the middle of the electorate."

与此同时,瑟恩仍然对共和党保持优势充满信心。他认为,关键在于动员那些投票意愿较低的选民(尤其是特朗普的支持者),同时还要努力争取中间选民的支持。他说:“投票率将是决定我们能否获胜的关键因素。在我们走访过的每一个州,我们的候选人都非常重视这一点;所有资源也都集中在这方面。我认为这将在选举日成为我们能否赢得这些胶着选局的关键。我相信我们在选举日的表现会超出民调的预期。”

"Turnout's going to be a big part of whether or not we're successful or not. And in every state I've been in, that is a clear-eyed focus of our candidates," Thune said. "That's where resources are being invested. And I think that could be the difference for us come Election Day on whether or not we win a lot of these close races or not," he continued. "And I think that we're gonna outperform the polls for sure come Election Day."

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