退役海军上将詹姆斯·斯塔夫里迪斯加入迈克尔·斯默康尼什的节目，讨论美国放宽对俄罗斯石油制裁的影响、乌克兰若陷落对北约的风险，以及在战时依赖埃隆·马斯克的星链（Starlink）所带来的危险。
Retired Admiral James Stavridis joins Michael Smerconish to discuss the implications of the U.S. waiving Russian oil sanctions, the risks to NATO if Ukraine falls, and the dangers of relying on Elon Musk’s Starlink during wartime.
我不知道你从哪里抽出时间来。好了，这是我的问题。总统刚刚免除对俄罗斯化石燃料销售的制裁，有什么良性的解释吗？他援引了国家利益，但没有作出解释。读一读这些茶叶吧。>> 我能想到的只是，其想法是让油价下降，这或许是短期获益的终极例子，但很可能在中期选举之前不会实现。那会给你带来大量长期痛苦。
IN DON'T KNOW WHERE YOU FIND THE TIME. OKAY, HERE'S MY QUESTION. IS THERE ANY BENIGN EXPLANATION FOR WHY THE PRESIDENT JUST WAIVED SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA FOSSIL FUEL SALES? HE HE CITED NATIONAL INTERESTS, BUT HE DIDN'T EXPLAIN. READ THOSE TEA LEAVES. >> ALL I CAN THINK IS THAT THE IDEA IS TO GET GAS PRICES DOWN, WHICH IS THE ULTIMATE EXAMPLE OF SOME SHORT TERM GAIN, WHICH PROBABLY WON'T HAPPEN BEFORE THE MIDTERMS. THAT WILL BRING YOU A LOT OF LONG TERM PAIN.
我认为免除制裁是一个大错误。顺便说一下，这些是林赛·格雷厄姆制裁，以总统最亲密的顾问之一、美国最杰出的国家安全思想家之一命名。他一定在天堂看到这一幕时感到震惊。显然，迈克尔，为了解决乌克兰问题，我们需要做两件事。一是继续向乌克兰人提供武器。我们正通过欧洲人为此付费而相当有效地做到这一点。
I THINK WAIVING THE SANCTIONS IS A BIG MISTAKE. BY THE WAY, THESE ARE THE LINDSEY GRAHAM SANCTIONS NAMED FOR ONE OF THE PRESIDENT'S CLOSEST ADVISERS, ONE OF THE GREAT NATIONAL SECURITY THINKERS OF THE UNITED STATES. HE MUST BE SHOCKED UP IN HEAVEN TO SEE THIS. AND CLEARLY, MICHAEL, THERE ARE TWO THINGS WE NEED TO DO TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM IN UKRAINE. ONE IS CONTINUE TO GET WEAPONS TO THE UKRAINIANS. WE'RE DOING THAT QUITE EFFECTIVELY VIA THE EUROPEANS WHO ARE PAYING FOR THEM, BY THE WAY.
顺便说一下，第二件事是对普京施加经济压力。那是他的燃料。那是让他能够继续战争的原因。如果我们做到这两点，我们就能成功地让乌克兰保持自由。但不，我看不出免除这些制裁有任何合理的解释。>> 你可能在本节目中听到过我与沃尔特·艾萨克森关于埃隆·马斯克和星链以及星盾的对话的一部分。好的。所以这一切都发生在乌克兰的军事卫星服务在战争中途放慢之后。
AND THE SECOND THING IS PUT ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON PUTIN. THAT'S HIS FUEL. THAT'S WHAT'S ALLOWING HIM TO CONTINUE THE WAR. IF WE DO THOSE TWO THINGS, WE'LL SUCCEED IN KEEPING UKRAINE FREE. BUT NO, I DON'T SEE ANY SENSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR WAIVING THOSE SANCTIONS >> YOU MAY HAVE HEARD A PART OF MY CONVERSATION WITH WALTER ISAACSON DURING THE COURSE OF THIS SHOW ABOUT ELON MUSK AND STARLINK AND STAR SHIELD. OKAY, GOOD. SO THAT ALL COMES AFTER UKRAINE'S MILITARY SATELLITE SERVICE SLOWED DOWN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WAR.
我想知道，特别是在读完你在彭博社的文章之后，如果我身处波罗的海国家，并且我在观察刚刚发生的事情，我应该有多担心？>> 你非常担心，而且你应该担心。现在，这是否意味着将有俄罗斯坦克开进波罗的海国家？
AND WHAT, I WONDERED FOR YOU, ESPECIALLY AFTER READING YOUR PIECE IN BLOOMBERG, IF I'M IN THE BALTIC STATES AND I'M WATCHING WHAT JUST TRANSPIRED, HOW CONCERNED AM I? >> YOU'RE VERY WORRIED AND YOU SHOULD BE. NOW, DOES THAT MEAN THERE ARE GOING TO BE RUSSIAN TANKS ROLLING INTO THE BALTIC STATES?
我不认为在可预见的未来，普京将要尝试和做的事情是使用混合战争、影子战争、灰色地带战争、对海底电缆进行无人署名的打击，以切断波罗的海国家与外界的联系，利用社交媒体的操纵，使用无人驾驶且未标记的无人机，就像几周前在德国莱比锡机场降落的那架无人机。呃，所有这些都将是普京将要使用的方式。
I DON'T THINK IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE, WHAT PUTIN IS GOING TO TRY AND DO IS USE HYBRID WARFARE, SHADOW WARFARE, GRAY ZONE WARFARE, UNATTRIBUTED STRIKES AGAINST UNDERSEA CABLES TO CUT THE BALTICS OFF USING MANIPULATION OF SOCIAL MEDIA, USING UNMANNED DRONES THAT ARE UNMARKED, LIKE THE ONE THAT LANDED AT LEIPZIG AIRPORT IN GERMANY JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO. UH, ALL OF THOSE ARE GOING TO BE THE MODALITIES THAT PUTIN WILL USE.
但不要搞错，如果他在乌克兰取得成功，迈克尔，他将获得巨大的新资源，4000万新臣民，呃，石油、天然气、欧洲的粮仓。这就是他想要乌克兰的原因。这不是某种关于“大俄罗斯”的神秘幻想。他想要它是出于传统而古老的原因。他想要这些资源。届时，我们的波罗的海朋友、我们的欧洲朋友将面临最大的危险，即最大的普京。
BUT MAKE NO MISTAKE, IF HE SUCCEEDS IN UKRAINE, MICHAEL, HE WILL GARNER ENORMOUS NEW RESOURCES, 40 MILLION NEW SUBJECTS, UH, OIL, GAS, THE BREADBASKET OF EUROPE. THAT'S WHY HE WANTS UKRAINE. IT'S NOT SOME MYSTIC VISION OF GREATER RUSSIA. HE WANTS IT FOR THE GOOD OLD FASHIONED REASON. HE WANTS THE RESOURCES. THAT'S WHEN OUR BALTIC FRIENDS, OUR EUROPEAN FRIENDS WILL MEET MAX DANGER, MAX PUTIN.
如果乌克兰沦陷的话。>> 好的，那么这对北约意味着什么？因为北约的作战计划在很大程度上依赖无人机，也很大程度上依赖卫星。联盟应该依赖由埃隆·马斯克拥有的卫星吗？如果你是北约的最高盟军司令，也就是派克以前的角色，如今你会对马斯克因素有多担心？>> 我会采取对冲策略来确保安全。沃尔特，我一个好朋友。
IF UKRAINE FALLS. >> OKAY, SO WHAT THEN DOES IT MEAN FOR NATO? BECAUSE NATO'S BATTLE PLAN LEANS HEAVILY ON DRONES, HEAVILY ON SATELLITES. SHOULD THE ALLIANCE DEPEND ON SATELLITES THAT ARE OWNED BY ELON MUSK? IF YOU WERE SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER OF NATO, YOUR OLD ROLE PIKE'S OLD ROLE TODAY, HOW WORRIED WOULD YOU BE ABOUT THE MUSK FACTOR? >> I WOULD HEDGE MY BETS TO BE SURE. WALTER, A GOOD FRIEND OF MINE.
杰出的历史学家，他曾用一个词来形容埃隆·马斯克——古怪。这基本上就总结了情况。那么你需要什么？你需要欧洲的卫星。欧洲人正在提升他们的能力。加拿大正在建设一个相当有能力的航天产业。呃，当然还有其他埃隆·马斯克的商业替代方案，但他显然是一个技术天才。你想尽可能地利用他所能提供的东西，但我不建议把所有赌注都押在埃隆·马斯克能够控制的任何产品的稳定性上。
BRILLIANT HISTORIAN, USED THE WORD ABOUT ELON MUSK CURIO. THAT ABOUT SUMS IT UP. SO WHAT DO YOU NEED? YOU NEED EUROPEAN SATELLITES. THE EUROPEANS ARE INCREASING THEIR CAPABILITY. CANADA IS BUILDING A PRETTY CAPABLE SPACE INDUSTRY. UH, CERTAINLY THERE ARE OTHER COMMERCIAL ALTERNATIVES TO ELON MUSK, BUT HE IS QUITE CLEARLY A TECHNOLOGY GENIUS. YOU WANT TO TAKE WHAT YOU CAN, BUT I WOULDN'T BET EVERYTHING ON THE STABILITY OF ANY PRODUCT THAT ELON MUSK CAN CONTROL.
我们对这样一种情况应该有多担心——如此巨大的权力掌握在埃隆·马斯克的手中？任何一名私人公民在战争时期扮演如此关键的角色。我们应该对此感到担忧。但我持审慎乐观的态度。我们的民主制度将带领我们度过难关。回到乌克兰的情况，这里有生活在真正民主国家的勇敢乌克兰人，他们正在寻求帮助。他们并不是要求我们向前线派遣军队，而是像温斯顿·丘吉尔在第二次世界大战期间所说的那样——丘吉尔对罗斯福说：“给我们工具。我们将在这里完成任务。”任务就是捍卫他们自己的国家。我们应该支持他们。我认为最终，
HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE THAT THERE'S SUCH POWER VESTED IN THE HANDS OF OF BEYOND MUSK? ANY ONE PRIVATE CITIZEN PLAYING SUCH A CRITICAL ROLE IN A TIME OF WAR. >> WE OUGHT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IT. BUT I'M CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC. OUR DEMOCRACY WILL CARRY US THROUGH THIS. AND GOING BACK TO THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE, UH, HERE ARE BRAVE UKRAINIANS WHO LIVE IN A REAL DEMOCRACY, UH, WHO ARE ASKING FOR HELP. THEY'RE NOT ASKING US TO SEND TROOPS TO THE FRONT LINES, BUT LIKE WINSTON CHURCHILL SAID IN THE SECOND WORLD WAR, UH, CHURCHILL SAID TO ROOSEVELT, GIVE US THE TOOLS. WE WILL FINISH THE JOB HERE. THE JOB IS DEFENDING THEIR OWN NATION. WE OUGHT TO SUPPORT THEM. I THINK IN THE END,