可以说，以色列有史以来最重要的选举将于下周二举行。考虑到本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在全球范围内引发的惊人厌恶——即便是阿亚图拉、弗拉基米尔·普京和习近平三人合体也比不上他——奇怪的是，似乎没有人注意到他可能正面临被选民抛弃、淡出历史舞台的边缘。
Arguably, the most consequential election that Israel has ever faced will take place a week on Tuesday. Given the remarkable loathing that Benjamin Netanyahu evokes across the world – the Ayatollah, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping rolled into one couldn’t hold a candle to him – it’s weird how nobody seems to have noticed that he may be on the verge of being dumped by the electorate and fading into the pages of history.
为何缺乏关注？推测如果内塔尼亚胡真的倒台，那么那些声称对以色列本身没有问题，但对其政府怀有失衡程度仇恨的批评者，就会突然宣布自己是毫不掩饰的锡安主义者，我说得对吗？
Why the lack of attention? Presumably, if Netanyahu does fall, then all those critics who claim to have no problem with Israel per se but reserve unhinged levels of venom for his government will suddenly declare themselves unabashed Zionists, am I right?
不过，我可能言之过早了。我对即将到来的选举为何被如此忽视有一套自己的理论，稍后我会说明。但先让我们看看这次选举的核心议题是什么。
But I’m getting ahead of myself. I harbour my own theory about why the upcoming elections have been so ignored, to which I’ll turn in a moment. But let’s first look at what is at stake.
最重要的是，这是自2023年10月7日以来的首次选举，根据民调，那场灾难性事件仍是本次竞选的核心。议题涵盖生存安全问题，以及责任应有多大程度上落在内塔尼亚胡头上（他是当时在职的唯一高级官员，既未道歉也未辞职）；还有对一次有意义、独立调查的诉求，而这一调查至今尚未得到证实。近70%的犹太选民将此置于他们关注问题的首位。
Most importantly this is the first election since October 7, 2023, and according to the polling, that catastrophic day remains central to this campaign. The issue encompasses questions of existential security, the extent to which responsibility for the massacre should land on Netanyahu’s doormat (he is the only senior figure who was in office at the time who has not either apologised or resigned); and demands for a meaningful, independent inquiry, which has still not been confirmed. Almost 70 per cent of Jewish voters place this top of their list of concerns.
其次，选民们担心生活成本。尽管以色列经济在过去一年里持续繁荣——股市飙升26%，出口激增30%，谢克尔汇率创历史新高——但人们的口袋里却感受到相反的情况。经济增长集中在科技和国防领域，其快速增长的人口给住房带来压力，而预备役动员则严重打击了国内财政。
Secondly, voters are worried about the cost-of-living. Although Israel’s economy has been booming over the last year, with the stock market surging by 26 per cent, exports soaring by 30 per cent and the Shekel reaching record highs, people are feeling the opposite in their pockets. Economic growth has been concentrated in technology and defence, its rapidly growing population is placing housing under strain, and reservist mobilisation has devastated domestic finances.
在此背景下，选民关注的第三大议题是正统派犹太人的征兵问题。传统上，这个社群——由于宗教原因往往不相信现代国家，占人口的约15%——不需要服兵役，而常常依靠福利救济生活。阿拉伯公民占20%，同样也没有兵役义务。随着以色列历史上持续时间最长的战争几乎没有缓解的迹象，这一问题已成为激烈争论的焦点。
On that note, the third major issue on voters’ minds is that of ultra-Orthodox conscription. Traditionally, this community – which tends not to believe in the modern state on religious grounds, and accounts for about 15 per cent of the population – have not been required to serve, while often living off welfare handouts. No military obligation is placed on the 20 per cent of Arab citizens, either. With the longest period of war in Israel’s history showing little sign of abating, this has become the subject of furious debate.
但这一切折射的棱镜，指向一个人：内塔尼亚胡。他不仅面临腐败指控——在我看来，他被指控接受雪茄和粉红香槟等礼物，以及试图影响媒体报道的行为，相较于我们政府的行为——从阿利勋爵的礼物到试图在五月取消不利选举——显得微不足道；而且他一直抵制对10月7日事件的国家委员会调查，同时在为自己喜欢的小组进行操作。
But the prism through which all this refracts is that of one man: Netanyahu. Not only is he facing corruption charges – though in my mind, the allegations of accepting gifts of cigars and pink champagne, and seeking to influence media coverage, pale in comparison to the behaviour of our own Government, from Lord Alli’s presents to attempts to cancel unfavourable elections in May – but he has resisted a state commission into October 7 while manoeuvring for a panel of his liking.
此外，由于以色列采用比例代表制，许多中间派拒绝加入内塔尼亚胡，他只能从极端势力中拉拢多数；他的联盟伙伴包括坚持免除征兵的正统派政党，以及少数极端激进分子，主要是伊塔马尔·本-格维尔和贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇。
Moreover, as Israel uses a proportional representation system, and many centrists refuse to join Netanyahu, he has drawn his majority from the extremes; his coalition partners include ultra-Orthodox parties who insist on exemption from conscription and a handful of extremist firebrands, principally Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
在以色列政治中，主要议题已经基本尘埃落定。10月7日之后，鉴于即使在较为温和的巴勒斯坦权力机构内部，对恐怖主义的持续支持——例如，该机构仍在用公共资金向被定罪的恐怖分子发放现金激励，这些资金由国际援助捐助提供支持——没有人认真认为巴勒斯坦国在几代人内是可行的。
In Israeli politics, the main questions are settled. After October 7, and given the persistent support for terrorism even within the more moderate Palestinian Authority – which persists, for example, in paying cash incentives to convicted terrorists, funded by public money propped up by international aid donations – nobody serious believes that a Palestinian state is viable for generations.
同样，没有人会认真地争论以色列应该对其针对伊朗支持的恐怖分子的军事行动降低强度，这些恐怖分子威胁着以色列的生存，无论他们来自加沙、约旦河西岸、黎巴嫩、叙利亚还是也门。由于他们的孩子因不断奔向防空洞而受到创伤，他们没有像埃德·米利班德那样指手画脚的奢侈，无论有多少蓝发学生和伊斯兰主义者在伦敦、巴黎或柏林游行。
Similarly, nobody serious is about to argue that Israel should put a dampener on its military campaign against the Iranian-backed terrorists that menace its very existence, whether from Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria or Yemen. With their children traumatised by constant dashes to bomb shelters, they don’t have the luxury of Ed Miliband-style finger-wagging, however many blue-haired students and Islamists march in London, Paris or Berlin.
这让我想起了我的理论。如果内塔尼亚胡的职业生涯在10月27日戛然而止，对外界会有什么影响？尽管国王查尔斯街的无能狂热分子仍在呼喊，两国方案仍将难以实现；军事行动悲哀地仍必须继续。当然，这个国家可能会较少受到试图将其拖入黑暗深渊的神权狂热分子的束缚。但西方没有人关心这一点，也就是说，他们根本不关心以色列的福祉。
Which returns me to my theory. What difference would it make to the outside world if Netanyahu’s career came crashing to a close on October 27? The two-state solution would remain elusive, despite the impotent zealot of King Charles Street; military action would, sadly enough, have to continue. Sure, the country may be less shackled to theocratic fanatics who seek to drag it into dark places. But nobody in the West cares about that, which is to say, they don’t care about the wellbeing of Israel at all.
不，他们关心的是用可以接受的语言表达最古老的仇恨。从西班牙宗教裁判所到大屠杀，反犹太主义总是伪装成社会正义的一种形式，将偏见包装成对犹太人对世界恶劣影响的担忧。
No, what they care about is expressing the oldest hatred in acceptable language. From the Spanish Inquisition to the Holocaust, anti-Semitism has always posed as a species of social justice, with bigotry packaged as concern to curb the malign Jewish influence on the world.
人们声称他们憎恨的是锡安主义，而不是犹太人。更精明的人声称他们憎恨的是内塔尼亚胡及其“极右政府”，而不是以色列。但事实再清楚不过了：犹太国家被憎恨不是因为它做了什么，而是因为它是什么。无论这次选举谁获胜，这种情况都不会改变，这就是为什么没有人关心它的原因。
People claim to hate Zionism, not Jews. The more sophisticated claim to hate Netanyahu and his “far-Right government”, not Israel. But the truth could not be clearer: the Jewish state is loathed not for what it does, but for what it is. That will remain the case whomever wins this election, which is why nobody cares about it.