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莫迪难以轻松平息死灰复燃的印度“蟑螂”抗议活动Modi Has No Easy Fix to End Resurgent India Cockroach Protests

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蟑螂人民党(Cockroach Janta Party)的支持者于10月16日在新德里参加抗议游行。摄影:里特什·舒克拉(Ritesh Shukla)/盖蒂图片社Supporters of the Cockroach Janta Party take part in a protest march in New Delhi on Oct. 16. Photographer: Ritesh Shukla/Getty Images

早在今年7月,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪的教育部长辞职,迅速平息了印度首轮大规模学生“蟑螂”抗议活动,当时这些抗议活动正蓄势待发。这一次,他没有那么容易脱身。

Back in July, the resignation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s education minister swiftly ended India’s first major round of student “Cockroach” protests just as they were gaining momentum. This time, he has no easy way out.

莫迪的竞争对手现在正要求首席选举专员吉亚内什·库马尔辞职,指控他未能回应有关印度20年一次的选民名册更新不公正地清除了数百万反对派选民的批评。尽管几乎没有确凿的证据表明存在偏见,但上个月《印度快报》的一篇报道发现库马尔忽视了他的两位同僚专员对这一程序提出的反对意见,从而煽动了这场轩然大波。

Modi’s rivals are now demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, alleging that he has failed to address criticism that a once-in-20-year update of India’s electoral rolls is unjustly purging millions of voters at the expense of the opposition. While there’s little hard evidence of bias, the furor was stoked by an Indian Express report last month that found Kumar ignored objections to the process raised by his two fellow commissioners.

即使莫迪想要摆脱任期还剩两年多的库马尔,这一过程也需要时间和政治资本。印度选举委员会是一个独立机构,罢免其负责人需要进行调查以证明“行为不端”,并需要在同一届国会会议上获得两院批准,且出席会议的议员必须至少达到三分之二。

Even if Modi wanted to get rid of Kumar, who has more than two years left on his term, the process would take time and political capital. The Election Commission of India is an independent body, and removing its head would require an investigation to prove “misbehavior” as well as approval by both houses of parliament in the same session with at least two-thirds of members present.

但莫迪所在的印度人民党一再支持选举委员会以及选民名册的修订,该修订旨在清除这个世界最大民主国家中已故、重复和不合格的选民。突然急转弯以摆脱库马尔或暂停修订进程,不仅会给莫迪的反对者送上一场胜利,还会让人对在他对国会保持主导控制的情况下其政党最近的选举胜利产生疑问。

But Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has repeatedly backed the Election Commission and the revision of electoral rolls, which is intended to remove dead, duplicate and ineligible voters in the world’s largest democracy. A sudden U-turn to get rid of Kumar or halt the revision process would not only hand a victory to Modi’s opponents, but also call into question recent election wins for his party, which retains a dominant grip on parliament.

艾哈迈达巴德大学专门研究印度选举和选民行为的政治学者尼拉詹·西尔卡表示:“要么你想办法让他退居幕后,要么你确保这些抗议活动失去合法性。政府目前非常被动。但当你是一个拥有这种控制力的主导政党时,颓势要显露出来可能需要很长的时间。”这种动态使得莫迪别无选择,只能部署镇压手段来扑灭抗议活动,以避免重演7月份的一幕——当时警察在新德里议会附近的街头冲突中打伤了数千名学生。

“Either you figure out a way of letting him step aside, or you ensure that the protests are delegitimized,” said Neelanjan Sircar, a political scientist at Ahmedabad University who specializes in Indian elections and voter behavior. “The government is very much on the back foot. But when you’re a dominant party with this kind of control, it can take a very long time for the slide to show.”The dynamics leave Modi little choice but to deploy repressive measures to snuff out the protests to avoid a repeat of July, when police bloodied thousands of students in street clashes near parliament in New Delhi.

他的政府这次选择进行大规模拘留、逮捕“小强民众党”(Cockroach Janta Party)的领导人,并对首都实施部分封锁。

His government this time has opted for mass detentions, arrests of the Cockroach Janta Party’s leaders and a partial lockdown of the capital.

一个多星期以来,新德里市中心实际上已经变成了一座堡垒,安保严密并对公众集会进行了限制。首都最繁忙商业区之一周边的道路在周末重新开放,不过路障依然存在,数千名安保人员被部署在全市各地。

Central Delhi has effectively been turned into a fortress for over a week, with heavy security and restrictions on public assembly. Roads around one of the capital’s busiest commercial districts reopened on the weekend, though barricades remained in place and thousands of security personnel are deployed across the city.

政府还加大了针对抗议者的言论攻势,将他们描绘成一小撮少数派,企图推翻选民的意志——正是这些选民帮助莫迪所在的印度人民党自2014年以来主导了印度政局。与此前引发政治光谱各方和广大公众共鸣的考试相关抗议活动不同,最近的示威活动更多是由在历次选举中步履维艰的反对派“印度国家发展包容性联盟”(INDIA)主导的。

The government has also stepped up its rhetoric against the protesters, painting them as a small minority seeking to overthrow the will of voters who have helped Modi’s BJP dominate Indian politics since 2014. Unlike the earlier protests related to exams, which resonated across the political spectrum and the wider public, the latest demonstrations are more led by the opposition INDIA alliance, which has struggled in recent elections.

国防部长拉杰纳特·辛格周五在一次全国讲话中表示:“有人试图把国家的青年当作混乱政治中的卒子——一些人寻求政权更迭。”他补充道:“他们的斗争不是为了选举改革,”并指责抗议者企图“摧毁民主机构并让国家陷入战火”。莫迪目前的盘算在于,严密的安保力量和逮捕行动将有助于阻止民众走上街头,时间长到足以让当前的抗议浪潮自行平息。加强限制措施所造成的交通瘫痪和其他不便,也可能会增加公众对抗议者的愤怒,特别是因为针对涉嫌选举违规的不满程度目前尚不清楚。

“Attempts are being made to use the nation’s youth as pawns in a politics of chaos — some seek a regime change,” Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said in a national address on Friday. “Their struggle is not for electoral reform,” he added, accusing protesters of seeking to “dismantle democratic institutions and set the country ablaze.”The bet from Modi now is that the heavy security presence and arrests will help keep people off the streets long enough for the current wave of protests to fizzle out. The traffic gridlock and other inconveniences from the heightened restrictions also may increase public anger toward the protesters, particularly as the extent of disapproval over alleged election malpractices is still unclear.

据新德里作家兼莫迪传记作家尼兰詹·穆霍巴迪亚伊透露,内政部长阿米特·沙阿也利用这一问题来争取印度人民党的印度教民族主义者基本盘,这些人希望取消包括穆斯林在内的宗教少数群体的特殊条款。他指责选民名册修订的反对者支持非法移民,这表明被从名册中剔除的大多数人是来自巴基斯坦、孟加拉国和缅甸等邻国的穆斯林社群外国人。

Home Minister Amit Shah has also used the issue to appeal to the BJP’s base of Hindu nationalists, who want to eliminate special provisions for religious minorities including Muslims. He has accused opponents of the voter-roll revision of supporting illegal immigration, signaling that the bulk of those removed from the list are foreigners from Muslim communities in neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, according to Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, a New Delhi-based author and Modi biographer.

穆霍帕迪扬表示:“我预计未来两年会出现更多严厉的措施,包括针对抗议者和反对派动用法律。我也看到全国范围内出现宗教社群紧张局势的风险更大,小规模冲突有可能升级为重大事件。”与此同时,镇压行动可能会适得其反,反而成为年轻人、反对派政党和公民社会团体的新战斗口号。在通货膨胀上升、且由于企业寻求部署人工智能来提高生产力而导致应届毕业生难以找到工作的背景下,舆论的焦点迅速从单一议题再次转向莫迪政府更广泛的问题。卢比汇率徘徊在历史低点附近,外国投资者继续抛售印度股票。

“I expect more draconian measures, including the use of laws against protesters and the opposition, over the next two years,” Mukhopadhyay said. “I also see a greater risk of communal tensions across the country, with minor confrontations potentially escalating into major incidents.”At the same time, the crackdown risks backfiring into a fresh rallying cry for young people, opposition parties and civil society groups. The spotlight again is quickly turning from a single issue to Modi’s government more broadly, at a time when inflation is rising and fresh graduates are struggling to find jobs as companies seek to deploy artificial intelligence to boost productivity. The rupee is hovering near record lows and foreign investors continue to sell Indian stocks.

尽管库马尔没有明确提及辞职呼吁,但选举委员会近来对公众批评表现出更多回应。

While Kumar hasn’t explicitly referenced the calls to resign, the Election Commission has shown more responsiveness to public criticism of late.

上个月,该委员会同意公布会议纪要,放宽了部分选民核实要求,延长了选民在德里和马哈拉施特拉邦对被排除在外提出异议的期限,并成立了一个小组来审查其选民登记软件。该选举机构还表示,官员将从记录不匹配或不一致的选民那里收集文件,而在早期修订中被排除在外的选民可以寻求恢复资格。

Last month, it agreed to publish minutes of meetings, eased some voter-verification requirements, extended deadlines for voters to challenge their exclusions in Delhi and Maharashtra, and established a panel to review its voter-registration software. The poll body also said officials would collect documents from voters with unmatched or inconsistent records, while those excluded in earlier revisions could seek reinstatement.

莫迪实现迅速解决问题的最佳途径可能来自另一个独立机构:最高法院。

Modi’s best pathway to a swift resolution may come from another independent institution: The Supreme Court.

10月12日,在新德里的一场抗议活动中,安保人员走过一幅纳伦德拉·莫迪的画像。Security personnel walk past a portrait of Narendra Modi during a protest in New Delhi on Oct. 12.

印度最高法院此前曾允许选民名册修订继续进行,该法院于10月15日要求选举机构对大量合格选民被从名册中删除的指控作出回应。如果法官下令对该程序进行修改,政府可以借口这一裁决而非街头压力作为改变的原因。

India’s top court, which previously allowed the voter-roll revision to continue, asked the poll body on Oct. 15 to respond to allegations that large numbers of eligible voters were removed from the lists. If judges order changes to the process, the government could point to the ruling rather than street pressure as the reason for a shift.

“在我看来,目前唯一可行的选择是司法部门介入,推动达成一项能够恢复程序公信力的协商解决方案,”贾米亚·米利亚·伊斯兰大学的政治学家兼作家穆吉布尔·雷曼表示。他长期撰写有关印度政治和政治制度的文章。

“To me, the only viable option that is available now is for judiciary to step in and work toward negotiated solution which restores the credibility of the process,” said Mujibur Rehman, a Jamia Millia Islamia political scientist and author who has written extensively on Indian politics and political institutions.

即便这种情况得以实现,最近发生的事件也暴露出更严重的问题:蟑螂人民党(Cockroach Janta Party)展现出了一定的持久力,并不会轻易消亡。这个至今尚未参与选举政治的压力团体,成功动员了街头力量,为印度国家民主联盟(INDIA)在议会中的反对派阵营注入了动力,并迫使莫迪处于守势。

Even if that happens, the latest episode shows an even bigger problem: The Cockroach Janta Party has some staying power and isn’t going away easily. The pressure group, which has so far stayed out of electoral politics, has helped mobilize a street force that has given momentum to the INDIA opposition bloc in parliament and put Modi on the defensive.

下一场重要的选举考验计划于明年年初在印度人口最多的北方邦举行。该邦对于反对派希望在2029年举行的下一次全国选举中推翻莫迪政府而言至关重要。截至目前,莫迪领导的联合政府尚未出现任何可能引发提前选举的分裂迹象。

The next major tests at the polls is slated for early next year in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, which is crucial to any opposition hopes to unseat Modi’s government in the next national vote scheduled for 2029. So far Modi’s coalition government has shown no sign of breaking apart to potentially trigger an early election.

卡内基国际和平基金会南亚项目主任、印度选举政治专家米兰·瓦什纳夫表示,政府正日益对“蟑螂运动”感到“焦虑”,但尚不清楚反对党能否将街头民众的愤怒转化为选票。

The government is increasingly “anxious” about the cockroach movement, but it’s unclear if opposition parties will be able to convert the anger on the streets into votes at the ballot box, said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an expert on Indian electoral politics.

“真正的挑战在于,印度国家民主联盟(INDIA)能否将这种势头转化为选举优势,”他说,“他们完全有可能在胜利即将到手时功败垂成。”

“The real challenge is whether the INDIA alliance can translate this in electoral terms,” he said. “They are quite capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.”