俗话说祸不单行。对于已执政13年的纳伦德拉·莫迪而言,这或许不仅仅是一句成语。
Oct 13 - Troubles are said to come in threes. For Narendra Modi, now in his 13th year in power, that may be more than a figure of speech.
这位印度总理正面临罕见的多重压力交织:一场迟迟不见消退的青年抗议运动、日益紧张的美印关系,以及尽管政府和央行接连出手干预、卢比仍承受的贬值压力。
The Indian prime minister is facing an unusual convergence of stresses: a youth protest movement that shows little sign of fading, increasingly strained ties with the United States, and renewed pressure on the rupee despite a series of government and central bank interventions.
这个名为“蟑螂人民党”(CJP)的青年运动,虽始于玩笑,却因试卷泄露事件逼退了教育部长,现已将矛头指向印度首席选举专员。
The youth movement known as the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), which began as a joke but helped force the resignation of the education minister over exam paper leaks, has now turned its attention to India's chief election commissioner.
过去十年间,莫迪在政治上几乎无人能撼。但这些汇聚的问题,正为其政府制造异常艰难的局面。
For much of the past decade, Modi has appeared politically unassailable. But the converging issues are creating an unusually difficult backdrop for his government.
莫迪是否正面临迄今最严峻的考验?这是本周的关注焦点。请致信 ira.dugal@thomsonreuters.com 周末,当局为遏制针对近期选民名册复核行动的抗议,在首都新德里部分地区拘留数百名示威者、切断网络服务并限制交通。
Is Modi facing his toughest test yet? That's our focus this week. Write to me at ira.dugal@thomsonreuters.com Over the weekend, hundreds of protesters were detained, internet services cut off and travel disrupted in parts of the national capital New Delhi as authorities tried to rein in agitations against a recent drive to review the country's electoral rolls.
这项始于去年的清理行动,已导致逾1.3亿个名字——超过日本总人口——从选民名册中被划除,其中包括2800万已故人员、6300万已迁居者,以及3000万无法联系上的人员。详情请见此处。
The change that started last year led to over 130 million names — more than the population of Japan — being struck from voter lists, including 28 million who had died, 63 million who had relocated, and 30 million who could not be traced. Read here to understand more.
尽管“蟑螂人民党”从未参选,而莫迪领导的印度人民党(BJP)近月在多个邦的关键选举中轻松获胜,但这场青年抗议已引发广泛关注。
While the Cockroach Janta Party has not fought elections, and Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has comfortably won key elections across states in recent months, the youth protests have grabbed attention.
惠誉旗下的BMI在上周报告中表示:“我们预计印度第二轮‘蟑螂’抗议行动将在未来几周升温,并有实质性可能最终超过7月的那波运动。”
"We expect India’s second Cockroach protest campaign to grow over the coming weeks and see a meaningful chance that it eventually exceeds the July movement," said BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, in a report last week.
BMI表示:“CJP现在拥有更强的组织能力、更广泛的不满诉求,并得到了平行反对派动员的支持。”不过该公司补充说,鉴于大型大都市以外的参与情况参差不齐,全国性的滚雪球效应并不能保证。这场运动背后都是些什么人?
"The CJP now has stronger organisation, a broader grievance, and support from parallel opposition mobilisation," BMI said, but added that a nationwide snowball effect is not assured given uneven participation beyond large metros. Who are the people behind the movement?
了解更多关于CJP创始人阿布希吉特·迪普克(Abhijeet Dipke)的信息。
for more on Abhijeet Dipke, the founder of the CJP.
在莫迪政府的内部政策承受压力之际,新德里与华盛顿之间的关系也迎来了考验时刻。
Strains on the Modi government's internal policies are coming alongside testing times for relations between New Delhi and Washington.
印度财政部长尼尔马拉·西塔拉曼表示,一项已谈判数月的贸易协议似乎陷入了停滞。
A trade deal, under negotiation for months, appears to have hit a plateau Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said.
虽然双方都没有解释谈判为何未能取得进展,但一项赋予总统唐纳德·特朗普权力、可对购买大量俄罗斯石油的国家(包括印度和中国)的进口商品征收高达100%关税的法案,被视为一个关键因素。我的同事希旺吉·阿查里亚(Shivangi Acharya)和马诺吉·库马尔(Manoj Kumar)对此作出了解释。大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)驻华盛顿南亚资深研究员迈克尔·库格尔曼(Michael Kugelman)表示,莫迪政府的基调最近从调解转向对抗,很可能是因为意识到印度在政治上承受不起保持沉默的代价。
While neither side has explained why the talks have failed to make progress, a bill that gives President Donald Trump authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports from countries buying significant Russian oil, including India and China, is seen as one key factor. My colleagues Shivangi Acharya and Manoj Kumar explain A recent shift in the Modi government's tone from conciliatory to confrontational is likely a realisation that India cannot afford politically to stay quiet, said Michael Kugelman, a resident senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
库格尔曼说:“广大印度公众对特朗普政府对印度加征关税、拉拢巴基斯坦、批评印度以及其他种种做法感到愤怒。”
"Much of the Indian public is angry at the Trump administration for its tariffs on India, its embrace of Pakistan, its criticism of India, and more," Kugelman said.
美国还采取行动限制曾被印孚瑟斯(Infosys)和塔塔咨询服务公司(TCS)等印度IT公司广泛使用的永久劳工认证计划(Permanent Labor Certification program)。但分析人士表示,过去五年来,这些公司已经减少了对向美国输出印度人才的依赖,从而限制了任何即时影响。与美国不断升级的紧张关系,只会恶化因油价上涨和外国人抛售印度资产而给印度货币带来的压力。
The US has also moved to curb the Permanent Labor Certification program once used actively by Indian IT firms like Infosys and TCS among others. But these firms have over the past five years reduced reliance on exporting Indian talent to the US, analysts said, limiting any immediate impact Escalating tensions with the US could only worsen pressures on the Indian currency stemming from higher oil prices and selling of Indian assets by foreigners.
印度经济继续以超过7%的惊人速度增长,依然是世界上增长最快的主要经济体。
The Indian economy continues to grow at a rapid pace of above 7% remaining the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
然而,由于担心高油价对亚洲第三大经济体的影响,外国机构投资者正以创纪录的速度抛售印度资产。缺乏人工智能相关的投资选择也让投资者对印度态度冷淡。其结果是卢比价值持续承受压力——这往往是一个政治痛点。
Yet, foreign portfolio investors have sold Indian assets at a record pace, fearing the impact of high oil prices on Asia's third-largest economy. A lack of AI-related investment options has also left investors lukewarm on India. The result has been persistent pressure on the value of the rupee — often a political sore point.
在上周早些时候的一次加息未能遏制该货币的弱势之后,印度央行于周末出台了一套旨在抑制美元需求的新措施。关于印度今年为支持卢比而采取的多项举措,请参见事实清单。
Over the weekend, the Indian central bank stepped in with a fresh set of measures to curb dollar demand after a rate hike earlier in the week failed to stem weakness in the currency. for a factbox on the many steps India has taken this year to support the rupee.
总部位于孟买的Systematix Group首席执行官达纳南杰·辛哈(Dhananjay Sinha)表示,贸易紧张局势对印度的宏观经济前景和卢比构成了额外的风险,卢比部分由于外国投资者提供的增长资本外流而受到损害。
The trade tensions are an additional risk to India's macroeconomic prospects and the rupee, which is hurting partly due to outflow of growth capital provided by foreign investors, said Dhananjay Sinha, CEO of Mumbai-based Systematix Group.
他说:“印度之所以采取强硬立场,原因可能是他们在国内政治上显得脆弱,并且可能不希望被视为向美国压力低头。”
"The reason why India may have taken an aggressive stance is because politically they are looking fragile domestically and they may not want to be seen as bowing to US pressure," he said.
周一发布的数据显示,印度9月份的通货膨胀率加速至5.54%,为2月份推出新数据系列以来的最高值。食品通胀率升至7.74%。
Inflation in India accelerated to 5.54% in September— the highest in a new data series rolled out in February, data released on Monday showed. Food inflation rose to 7.74%.
通胀率的上升伴随着高企的家庭通胀预期,并可能促使央行进一步加息最多75个基点。印度央行上周进行了近四年来的首次加息。
The rise in the inflation rate comes alongside elevated household inflation expectations and is likely to prompt up to 75 basis points more in rate hikes from the central bank. The Reserve Bank of India hiked rates for the first time in nearly four years last week.
本周的重点阅读涵盖大宗商品、股票,以及在印度金融中心孟买附近上演的基础设施与人类利益之间一场熟悉的博弈:
Top reads this week come from across commodities, equities and a familiar battle between infrastructure and human interests playing out near India's financial capital Mumbai: