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年轻抗议者令印度总理莫迪陷入被动Young Protesters Are Putting India’s Modi on the Defensive

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阿比吉特·迪普克在要求印度首席选举专员辞职的集会上。(因德拉尼尔·穆克吉/法新社)Abhijeet Dipke at a rally demanding the resignation of India's chief election commissioner. (Indranil Mukherjee/AFP)

新德里——在上周加入一次投票权抗议之前,蟑螂大众党青年运动创始人阿比杰特·迪普克公开向印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪发出挑战。

NEW DELHI—Before joining a protest last week over voting rights, Abhijeet Dipke, the founder of the Cockroach Janta Party youth movement, issued a public challenge to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“我知道今晚或明天随时可能被抓,”他在新闻发布会上说。“我想告诉纳伦德拉·莫迪……我们不怕这种事……来抓我吧。”第二天,警方逮捕了这位31岁的男子,他身穿印有甘地形象的T恤,手持印度国旗。警方还在本周早些时候逮捕了两名蟑螂党领袖后,拘留了左翼活跃分子内哈·博拉。迪普克和博拉获释后,明确表示将继续抗议。

“I know that I can be picked up anytime tonight or tomorrow,” he said in a press conference. “I want to tell Narendra Modi…We aren’t afraid of this type of thing…come and get me.”The next day, police seized the 31-year-old, who was clad in a T-shirt bearing the image of Mahatma Gandhi and holding an Indian flag. Police also detained Neha Bora, a prominent left-wing activist, after arresting two other Cockroach Party leaders earlier in the week. After Dipke and Bora were released from custody, they made it clear they would keep protesting.

“现在只等我的兄弟们获释,”迪普克在社交媒体上发布了一张照片,照片中其他蟑螂党成员在被警方拘留时竖起胜利手势。

“Now just waiting for my brothers to be free,” Dipke said in a social-media post with a photo of other Cockroach Party members flashing victory signs while in police custody.

莫迪执政12年期间,其印度教民族主义政府因对异议采取强硬手段而声名狼藉。权利组织称,政府频繁利用反恐法将政治活动人士长期羁押且不予保释,且对政治对手和新闻机构的逃税及腐败调查也造成了寒蝉效应。

Over 12 years in power, Modi’s Hindu nationalist government has gained a reputation for being heavy-handed toward dissent. Rights groups say the frequent use of antiterrorism laws to detain political activists for years without bail, and many tax evasion and corruption investigations against political opponents and news outlets have created a chilling effect.

政府坚持称依法公正打击腐败,维护国家安全。但最近几天的做法——在首都街头部署数万名警察和准军事部队,并反复拘留抗议领袖——遭到抗议者以机智和挑衅相对。这让莫迪政府陷入回应困境。

The government maintains it applies the law impartially to fight corruption and safeguard national security. But its tactics in recent days, including putting tens of thousands of police and paramilitary troops on the streets of India’s capital and repeatedly detaining protest leaders, have been met with a mix of wit and defiance by the protesters. This has left the Modi government struggling to respond.

“政府似乎对任何事物和任何人都不怕,”布朗大学政治学教授阿舒托什·瓦尔什尼说。“现在它似乎害怕年轻人。”总理办公室未立即回应置评请求。

“The government seemed to be scared of nothing and no one,” said Ashutosh Varshney, a professor of political science at Brown University. “Now it seems to be scared of young people.”The prime minister’s office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

“蟑螂党”已在7月从政府那里取得了一项成功,当时该党就竞争性考试的管理问题和经济机会匮乏发起了抗议。由博拉领导的那类左翼学生运动也加入了进来。那些示威的规模让政府措手不及。教育部长当月辞职,满足了抗议者的首要要求。

The Cockroach Party had already wrested one success from the government in July, when it staged protests over the management of competitive exams and lack of economic opportunity. Left-wing student movements, such as the one headed by Bora, joined in. The scale of those demonstrations caught the government off guard. The education minister resigned that month, meeting the protesters’ top demand.

全印学生会主席内哈·博拉。(维平/美联社)Neha Bora, president of the All India Students’ Association. (Vipin/AP)

随后,民众的愤怒又指向了印度选举委员会对全国选民名册进行的大规模修订。根据活动人士对官方数据的统计,此次修订删除了约1.3亿个名字。这在本月引发了新的抗议。

Then came anger over a sweeping revision that India’s election authority has undertaken to the country’s electoral rolls, removing some 130 million names, according to tallies from official data by activists. That sparked fresh protests this month. Police hauled off thousands of young people on Oct. 10 as the government sought to thwart the demonstrations.

一名抗议者在新德里的一场示威活动中被拘留。(普里扬舒·辛格/路透社)A protester is detained during a demonstration in New Delhi. (Priyanshu Singh/Reuters)

10月10日,政府试图阻止示威活动,警方带走了数千名年轻人。一段博拉飞奔躲避行动迟缓的警察的视频片段迅速走红。

A video clip of a sprinting Bora dodging slow-moving police quickly went viral. Images of those confrontations helped make this month’s protests far more about the government’s ruling style—and about Modi himself—than earlier protests by farmers over agricultural policy changes, or demonstrations against citizenship law changes that appeared to favor Hindus while excluding Muslims.

这些冲突的画面使本月的抗议活动远比此前农民反对农业政策调整的抗议、或反对公民法修改(该修改似乎偏向印度教徒而排斥穆斯林)的示威更聚焦于政府的执政风格——以及莫迪本人。

In the past, young people—a huge share of India’s population—were seen as a key source of support for Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party.

过去,年轻人——占印度人口的很大比例——被视为莫迪及其印度人民党的关键支持来源。印度下一次全国大选要到2029年才举行,但明年初,印度最大的邦北方邦将举行地方选举。

India’s next national polls aren’t until 2029, but early next year India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh, is set to vote in local elections. In national elections in 2024, Modi’s party lost its majority in the lower house of Parliament largely due to losses in Uttar Pradesh, where youth anger over lack of jobs influenced the result.

在2024年的全国选举中,莫迪的政党失去了在议会下院的多数席位,主要原因是北方邦的失利,当地年轻人对就业匮乏的愤怒影响了选举结果。

“The youth are a very large proportion of the electorate,” said Varshney, the Brown University professor.

布朗大学教授瓦尔什尼表示:“年轻人在选民中占很大比例。这里真正的危险在于选举。”在这次全面修订中,选举官员将数千万人从选民名册草案中删除,原因是这些人未能寄回一份发送到其最后已知地址的表格。另有数百万人被列入审查范围,原因是在此前的名册中找不到他们本人或其父母、祖父母,或者软件程序发现拼写或年龄不匹配,或发现“逻辑上的不一致”,例如家庭有六个或更多孩子。

“The real danger here is electoral.”During the overhaul, electoral officials deleted tens of millions of people from draft rolls if they failed to return a form that was delivered to their last known address. Millions more were selected for scrutiny if they or their parents or grandparents couldn’t be found on previous rolls, or if a software program found spelling or age mismatches, or “logical discrepancies” such as families with six children or more.

政府部长们表示,这项工作是为了清除名册中的已故人员或欺诈选民,例如非法移民。这导致人们担心,从选民名册上掉下来可能导致其他方面的排除——例如被排除在福利项目之外——甚至引发对其公民身份本身的审查。

Government ministers have said the exercise is meant to purge lists of deceased people or fraudulent voters, such as illegal immigrants. That has led people to fear that falling off the voter list could lead to other exclusions—such as from welfare programs—or even cast scrutiny over their citizenship itself.

西孟加拉邦的新政府表示,不在选民名册上的人将没有资格享受多项政府福利项目。当地当局今年早些时候完成了修订后的选民名册。

The new government in the state of West Bengal has said people who aren’t on voter rolls won’t be eligible for several government welfare programs. Authorities there completed the revised voter lists earlier this year.

在选民修订工作中对家庭规模的审查引发了许多穆斯林的怀疑,他们认为这项工作意在将他们从名册中删除,因为印度教民族主义政客曾就穆斯林家庭规模较大发表过言论。选举当局和政府否认选民修订过程歧视穆斯林。

The scrutiny of family size as part of the voter revision sparked suspicion among many Muslims that the exercise sought to delete them from the rolls, given that Hindu nationalist politicians have made remarks about Muslims having larger families. The electoral authority and the government have denied that the voter revision process discriminates against Muslims.

但被删除的人中有数千万属于印度占多数的印度教徒,这导致此次反对的范围比以往主要影响穆斯林的公民身份政策抗议更为广泛。

But tens of millions of those removed are from India’s Hindu majority, leading to broader opposition this time than during past protests over citizenship policies that mainly affected Muslims.

“政府正在剥夺如此多印度人的投票权,而不仅仅是穆斯林的投票权,”19岁的穆斯林青年纳尔希德·阿拉姆说,他最近作为首次投票者能够投票,而他的母亲——一位已投票二十年的选民——却被从选民名单中除名。“剥夺人们的投票权,就是在告诉他们你们不是这个国家的公民。”许多人还认为选民名单清理与莫迪政党承诺建立全国性公民身份的竞选承诺之间存在关联,如果落实,可能会导致数亿人匆忙准备所需文件,以证明他们的祖先曾在此国居住。政府尚未宣布此类行动的计划。抗议活动已经迫使当局撤销了选民名单清理的部分内容。

“The government is taking away voting rights of so many Indians, not only Muslims,” said Nurshid Alam, a 19-year-old Muslim who was able to as a first-time voter recently while his mother, a two-decade voter, was struck from the rolls. “By taking away people’s voting rights, you are telling them that you are not citizens of this country.”Many also see a link between the voter-list purge and a campaign promise by Modi’s party to create a national citizenship, which, if carried out, could leave hundreds of millions scrambling to furnish the necessary documents to prove that their ancestors lived in the country. The government has announced no plans for such an exercise. The protests have already forced authorities to undo parts of the voter-list purge.

周五,新德里的抗议者。(普里扬舒·辛格/路透社)Protesters in New Delhi on Friday. (Priyanshu Singh/Reuters)

一名在周日于特殊营地工作的选举官员表示,他和其他地方选举工作人员在最近几天收到指令,处理被标记为“逻辑差异”的选民的文件,且不需要任何额外的验证文件。他们还开始使用一份不要求人们提供父母和祖父母投票记录的表格,该官员说。

An election officer working on Sunday at a special camp to help voters said he and other local election workers received orders in recent days to process the paperwork of the voters flagged for “logical discrepancies” without requiring any additional verification documents. They also began using a form that didn’t have any requirement for people to provide voting records of parents and grandparents, the officer said.

“最近的青年抗议迫使了这些变化,”该官员说。“它们肯定正在产生实际影响。”选举委员会未立即回应置评请求。

“The recent youth protests have forced these changes,” the officer said. “They are having an impact on the ground for sure.”The Election Commission didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

请将来稿发送至Tripti Lahiri的邮箱tripti.lahiri@wsj.com和Krishna Pokharel的邮箱krishna.pokharel@wsj.com。

Write to Tripti Lahiri at tripti.lahiri@wsj.com and Krishna Pokharel at krishna.pokharel@wsj.com

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