林达·西格在东京路透社工作超过三十年，期间负责报道日本政治、经济和社会问题，最近担任首席政治记者。她目前以自由身工作。日本保守派政治家高市早苗去年十月成为该国首位女首相，数月后带领她所领导的执政党自由民主党（LDP）取得历史性选举胜利，但她的亲力亲为（DIY）治理风格正引发人们对她能否持久执政的质疑。
Linda Sieg covered Japanese politics, economics and social issues at Reuters in Tokyo for over three decades, most recently as chief political correspondent. She is currently freelancing Japan's conservative Sanae Takaichi last October became the country's first female prime minister and months later led her ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a historic election victory, but her do-it-yourself (DYI) governance style is raising questions about her ability to go the distance.
在重组内阁不到一个月后，高市早苗上周接受了她亲自任命的农业大臣的辞职。此前有指控称，该大臣曾游说政府削减对两个城镇的资助，而这两个城镇的市长曾在选举中支持他的竞争对手。她最初为该大臣辩护，但随后有报道称他可能还违反了选举法——以及这对她在议会中的议程构成的风险——最终导致他下台。
Less than a month after reshuffling her cabinet, Takaichi last week accepted the resignation of her handpicked farm minister following allegations he had lobbied for government funding cuts for two towns whose mayors had backed his rivals in the election. She initially defended the minister but a report that he may have also violated the election law -- and the risk to her agenda in parliament -- sealed his fate.
高市早苗今年65岁，是她政治偶像、已故前首相安倍晋三在2020年辞职后，日本的第四位领导人。安倍晋三曾担任近八年历史性的第二个任期。
Takaichi, 65, is Japan's fourth leader since her political idol, the late Shinzo Abe, resigned in 2020 after serving a historic nearly eight-year second term.
然而，高市早苗是否能够追随安倍晋三的足迹，仍然充满不确定性。她的政策议程呼应了安倍晋三通过扩张性支出促进增长以及加强防御能力以应对被感知的来自中国威胁的主张。
Whether Takaichi, whose policy agenda echoes Abe's expansionary spending to foster growth and a push to bolster defense capabilities to counter perceived threats from China, is on track for a similar run is, however, far from certain.
“这感觉并不很可持续。感觉她没有一个持久的基础，而且有很多事情正在向她袭来，”风险咨询公司Japan Foresight的创始人托比亚斯·哈里斯说道。
"It doesn't feel very sustainable. It doesn't feel as if she has a durable foundation and there are a lot of things coming at her," said Tobias Harris, founder of risk consultancy Japan Foresight.
随着她第二年执政的开始，高市早苗面临着诸多挑战：从应对善变的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普、处理与中国的紧张关系，到推行为期两年的消费税削减——这一举措令金融市场以及她党内一些人感到担忧，鉴于日本巨大的公共债务以及她激进的支出计划。
As her second year begins, Takaichi faces a myriad of challenges from coping with mercurial U.S. President Donald Trump and managing rocky ties with China to enacting a two-year consumption tax cut that worries financial markets -- and some in her party -- given Japan's huge public debt and her aggressive spending plans.
高市将于明年9月参加自民党总裁的连任选举，而她所在的联盟在议会上院未能获得多数席位，将在2028年面临该院的全国选举。目前，任何挑战者很可能来自她自己的党内，鉴于反对党在2月选举后陷入深度混乱。
Takaichi will be up for re-election as LDP leader next September while her coalition, which is shy of a majority in parliament's upper house, will face a national poll for the chamber in 2028. For now, any challenger would likely come from inside her own party, given the opposition's deep disarray after the election in February.
“她的形象是局外人、不妥协且是真正的改革者……但这取决于她能否控制信息和形象，” 东京 Sophia University 政治学教授 中野浩一 说。“她更多的是统治而非治理。这可能是她的优势，但也可能是她的劣势。” 就在上任不到四个月时，高市在未与党内重量级人物进行通常情况下先行的协商的情况下，就宣布了提前众议院选举。
"Her image is that she's an outsider, uncompromising and a real reformer ... But it depends on controlling the message and the image," said Koichi Nakano, a Sophia University political science professor. "She reigns more than she rules. That may be her strength, but also her weakness." Less than four months after taking office, Takaichi called a snap lower house election with little of the consultation with party heavyweights that typically precedes such a move.
此举奏效，为自民党及其小联盟伙伴带来了历史性的超级多数。高市的个人人气因社交媒体渲染的形象而提升——她被描绘为勤奋、时尚且表达清晰的新面孔，凭借能力而非派系关系取得成功，同时还吸引了硬核保守派，并促成了两个中间派反对党的仓促且最终失败的合并。
The move paid off, delivering a historic super majority for the LDP and its junior coalition partner. Takaichi's personal popularity was buoyed by a social media-fanned image as a hardworking, stylish and articulate fresh face who has succeeded on merit not factional ties, along with an appeal to hard-core conservatives and a hasty and ultimately unsuccessful merger of two centrist opposition parties.
毫无疑问，她所在党取得的巨大胜利为她在自民党内赢得了宝贵的政治资本，此前她在两次全国选举中表现不佳。
To be sure, the massive victory for her party garnered her precious political capital within the LDP after poor performances in two previous national polls.
“如果高市的人气下降，替换她的举动将在[自民党内]出现，……但只要她仍然受欢迎，就不会有人挑战她，” 思考机构 笹川和平基金会 的资深研究员 渡边恒雄 在 Yana 辞职前说道。农林水产部部长 矢野和夫 上周因涉嫌丑闻而辞职。
"If Takaichi's popularity declined, moves to replace her would emerge [inside the LDP], but ... as long as she is popular, no one will challenge her," Tsuneo Watanabe, a senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, a think tank, said before Yana's resignation. Agriculture Minister Kazuo Yana resigned last week over alleged scandals.
然而，缺乏内部协商凸显了高市早苗独自执政风格的一个标志：缺乏能够在党内议员之间协调、管理官僚体系的强力助手或盟友，她更倾向于独自工作而非进行个人社交，且不愿委派任务——以至于根据她自己的说法，她靠极少的睡眠维持。
The lack of internal consultation, however, highlights a hallmark of Takaichi's go-it-alone governing style: a shortage of powerful aides or allies who can coordinate among party lawmakers and ride herd on bureaucrats, a preference for working alone rather than personal schmoozing and a reluctance to delegate tasks to the point where, by her own account, she survives on minimal sleep.
媒体分析显示，首相倾向于在周末和假期蜷缩在官邸内，与官僚进行简报的频率低于前任——她更倾向于独自研读文件。她还举行的新闻发布会和媒体吹风会次数少于近期领导人，更倾向于通过社交媒体进行直接沟通，并且在议会答问上花费的时间也更少。
Media analyses show that the prime minister tends to hunker down in her official residence on weekends and holidays and meets bureaucrats for briefings less often than predecessors -- preferring to pour over documents alone. She also holds fewer news conferences and press gaggles than recent leaders, preferring direct communication via social media, and has spent less time answering questions in parliament.
在7月一则被广泛报道——并受到批评——的X平台帖子中，高市早苗写道，她几乎每晚睡眠不超过三小时，因为她正在研读文件和回复邮件，利用剩余时间做家务，比如熨衣。
In a widely reported -- and criticized -- post on X in July, Takaichi wrote she rarely slept more than three hours a night because she was studying documents and answering emails, using any leftover time for household chores like ironing.
在上个月的内阁改组之前，高市早苗审阅了发送给党内议员的问卷，询问他们希望担任什么职务以及如果被任命将会做什么，而不是走传统的咨询党内元老的路线。该党的 pratiquement 所有派系——这些派系数十年来主导了人事任命——在2023年底爆发的政治资金丑闻之后被正式解散，尽管仍有一些残余势力存在。
Ahead of last month's cabinet reshuffle, Takaichi reviewed questionnaires to party lawmakers asking what post they sought and what they'd do if appointed, rather than follow the traditional path of consulting party elders. All but one of the party's factions, which for decades dominated personnel decisions, were officially dissolved after a political funds scandal that emerged in late 2023, though vestiges remain.
支持者认为这一过程是她强大个人领导力的体现。最终，高市早苗通过重新任命她的18名大臣中的8人——包括负责财政、防务和外交的核心部门大臣——来强调连续性，同时撤换了一名潜在的未来竞争对手。
Backers saw the process as a sign of her strong personal leadership. Ultimately, Takaichi stressed continuity by reappointing eight of her 18 ministers including those holding the core portfolios of finance, defense and diplomacy, while removing one potential future rival.
改造后，她在选民中获得了相对积极的评价，媒体民调显示她的支持率在变化后从45%到62%不等。但选民对她任命两名曾卷入过去政治资金丑闻的新面孔表示不满，其中一人是Yana。在议会的严苛质询中，Yana否认曾施压官僚以实现预算削减，但日本公共广播协会（NHK）在10月初进行的一项调查发现，78%的受访者对此不以为然。该调查还显示她的支持率为51%，这是她上任以来的最低水平。
The makeover received relatively positive marks from voters, with her support after the changes ranging from 45% to 62% in media polls. But voters were less pleased with her appointment of two new faces previously involved in the past political funds scandal, one of whom was Yana. Under intense grilling in parliament, Yana denied he pressured bureaucrats for the budget cuts but an early October survey by public broadcaster NHK found 78% of respondents were unconvinced. That survey also put her support rate at 51％ -- the lowest since she took office.
高市的支持主要依赖于一批右倾支持者的核心群体，以及因其精明的社交媒体策略而被吸引的年轻人和独立选民，这一策略主要由安倍的前密友顾问推动，该顾问目前担任内阁官房副长官（负责公共事务）。
Takaichi's support has relied largely on a core of right-leaning backers combined with younger and independent voters attracted by a savvy social media strategy, largely driven by a former close aide to Abe who now serves as cabinet secretary for public affairs.
然而，这种支持在2026年中出现了脆弱迹象，当时由于选民对抗通胀措施的不满以及她推动制定有争议立法（如仅允许男性成为天皇的法律）而下降。该修订虽然得到了她基本盘的认可，但与大多数选民的意见相背离——这些选民倾向于允许女性继承这座历经数世纪的王位。
That support, however, showed signs of vulnerability in mid-2026, when it dipped amid voter dissatisfaction with steps to fight inflation and her push to enact controversial legislation such as a law ensuring only males can become emperor. The revision appealed to her base but was out of step with the views of most voters, who favor letting females succeed to the centuries-old throne.
首相的支持率在9月内阁改组后有所回升，但调查显示仍存在一些未来需担忧的因素。保守派《读卖新闻》的一项民调显示，其支持率从8月的56%上升三个百分点至59%，这一成绩对一位执政近一年的领导人而言属于高分。但最常被提及的理由是“没有其他人更好”。这表明形象的重要性：高市内阁公关办公室申请了下一财政年度7.23亿日元（约4600万美元）的预算，较往年增加了10倍，批评者称这是用纳税人的钱做宣传。
The premier's ratings recovered after the September cabinet reshuffle, but surveys showed some cause for future concern. A poll by the conservative Yomiuri newspaper revealed a three-point rise to 59% from August -- high marks for a leader after nearly one year. But the most common reason given was that "no one else is good." In a sign of how much image matters, Takaichi's Cabinet Public Relations Office requested a 7.23 billion yen ($46 million) budget for the next fiscal year, a 10-fold increase from previous years, and a move critics dubbed using tax money for propaganda.
关于Yana引发的争议将在多大程度上影响她的支持率仍有待观察。新近爆发的腐败丑闻，例如帮助结束前首相岸田文雄2024年三年任期的自民党政治资金未报事件，将构成另一项风险。外界已经开始猜测她上任一个月的内阁中其他人可能存在的不当行为。
How much the furore over Yana dents her popularity remains to be seen. Fresh corruption scandals, such as the LDP political funds underreporting saga that helped end predecessor Fumio Kishida's three-year stint in 2024, would pose another risk. Speculation is already simmering about possible misdeeds by others in her month-old cabinet.
最明显的潜在风险或许在于金融市场，投资者以及许多选民都担心她将如何为其提出的将日本食品消费税从8%降至1%的两年期减税方案提供资金。
Perhaps the most obvious potential pitfall lies with financial markets, where investors as well as many voters worry about how she will fund her proposed two-year cut in Japan's consumption tax on food items to 1% from 8%.
面对来自特朗普政府的压力，高市早苗一直强调她的政策并非安倍 reflation（刺激性）政策的简单复制。然而，行动胜于言辞。
Faced with pressure from the Trump administration as well, Takaichi has been stressing that her policies are not carbon copies of Abe's reflationary measures. Actions, however, will speak louder than words.