The Texas attorney general’s checkered history is moving even some conservative women to vote Democratic.

Democratic state Rep. and U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico poses with supporters at a campaign event in Houston in March.

CYPRESS, Texas — There’s something missing in this conservative Houston suburb on the eve of early voting next Monday: Visible support for Republicans, particularly the embattled Senate candidate.

In the sprawling Bridgeland subdivision, yard signs appear to favor Democratic state Rep. James Talarico over his rival, GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton. The signage gap matches recent polling, which shows Talarico, a four-term state representative, either tied or several points ahead of Paxton, who has never lost an election in 25 years.

Nowhere is that more clear than on Bridgeland’s Inspiration Drive, where voters on both sides of the political aisle say that Paxton, dogged by corruption scandals and accusations of infidelity, has lost support from a crucial segment of the electorate: suburban women. Interviews with these female voters, who tend to outvote men and therefore carry extra sway in growing communities, reveal a combination of apathy toward Paxton’s candidacy and an active shift by some conservatives toward his Democratic opponent.

“People don’t want to talk about whether they’re going to vote for him, but they will,” Eugenio, 57, said of Paxton. “The question is, will it be enough?”

“I start to feel like it’s this secret underground club who don’t want Paxton in office,” said Kostecka, 66. She said she’s worried though that people “will stay home because they do not like the choices they have.”

In a race that veteran political observers say will be decided by small margins, incremental shifts that eluded Democrats in recent cycles could be building in the suburbs. In 2022, Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke made gains in the suburbs, but in the end, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) still won 60 percent of suburban precincts to O’Rourke’s 38 percent, according to the Texas Politics Project .

Unlike O’Rourke, polls have Talarico leading his GOP opponent by four to six points, and he’s far outpaced Paxton in direct fundraising, including a record-breaking $64 million in the third quarter compared to Paxton’s $18 million.

Talarico leads even more among women: 56 percent of women said they would vote for Talarico, 40 percent for Paxton, according to a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released Tuesday . That margin exceeds the gap among all suburban voters, according to the same poll, which shows Talarico leading Paxton 54 to 44.

Paxton recently received an infusion of $158 million in campaign funding via a Senate PAC from Texas-based tech billionaire Elon Musk, but he’s still saddled with President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and his own checkered history.

In 2023, Paxton was investigated and impeached in a bipartisan vote of the Texas House for bribery, abuse of official capacity and obstruction of justice. While Paxton was ultimately acquitted by the GOP-controlled state Senate, the trial detailed allegations Paxton had used his office to help a wealthy donor retaliate against whistleblowers and confess to staff that he’d cheated on his wife. Last year, a state judge in Houston dismissed a 2015 felony securities fraud case against Paxton after he completed a pretrial diversion program without admitting guilt.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, left, who is in a tight race against Talarico, poses with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and a supporter at Glorious Way Church last month.

Like other conservative suburbs ringing Houston, Dallas and Austin, the Cypress-Fairbanks region has diversified during the past decade as it grew to nearly 700,000. It’s now 45 percent White, 25 percent Latino, 12 percent Asian and 12 percent Black, according to the latest census.

In the 2018 midterm Senate election, O’Rourke won surrounding Harris County and made unprecedented gains in historically conservative suburban Fort Bend County to the south, flipping precincts in competitive congressional districts. He narrowed his margins in some western suburbs, but lagged in others including Cypress and ultimately lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R).

During the 2020 presidential race, some Cypress neighborhoods shifted 10 to 30 percentage points more Democratic compared to 2016, and Joe Biden won the county by 13 points. But no Democrat could pull off a statewide win. There are signs this year that could be changing.

Even though 57 percent of the Cypress electorate has voted Republican and 43 percent Democrat, according to an analysis earlier this year , there has been a recent upswing in progressive activism. Control of the local MAGA-controlled school board flipped last year building support among independents.

During the March primary, more Democrats voted than Republicans for the first time in four years in Harris County and statewide, driven in part by voting in the suburbs, experts said — and that could help decide the Senate race.

Last month, Paxton appeared at Glorious Way Church, which serves the Cypress area, to speak with supporters about the economy and his plans to lower costs for Texans, including tax deductions for medical expenses and first-time home buyers.

“I’m going fight so every Texan can buy a home, raise a family and live a healthy life without struggling to make ends meet,” Paxton said, touting his “Protecting the Texas Promise” plan to address cost of living, housing and health care costs through tax relief and up-front pricing from hospitals and insurers.

Talarico noted on X that when Paxton posted about the Cypress event, he misidentified the area as “Cyprus” — a European country — implying the error may have been due to Paxton’s “luxury European vacations.”

Eugenio said she supports Paxton because she opposes gender transition care for minors, worries about child trafficking, border security and other public safety issues Paxton has championed.

“Even though he has personal issues, that’s not my business,” she said. “I still feel like he would be a good fit.”

Eugenio said she’d declined to be polled recently, and suspects other Paxton supporters have done the same, leading to undercounts.

“There’s always the possibility that the polls are undercounting Republicans,” Jones, the political science professor, said. “Although even in that case the problem for Paxton is it’s probably only two or three points.”

Paxton’s campaign appears to be attempting to solidify support among conservative and right-leaning suburban women with appeals by his family. He posted video speaking with his adult daughter about child-rearing . GOP state Sen. Angela Paxton, with whom he is embroiled in a contentious divorce, appeared in a campaign ad that did not name her husband but urged voters to support “the Republican ticket.”

Such ads, Jones said, are “a rearguard attempt to stem the flow of women supporters and win back some of the conservative women who can’t bring themselves to vote for Ken Paxton.”

“They’re potentially persuadable if you can soften the aspect of Paxton that has you believing he’s treated his wife and family poorly,” Jones said, so that they “revert to their traditional behavior and vote for the party.”

“Democrats are not offering a lot of what suburban women are looking at: How they are going to pay for soccer camp for two kids, keep their family budget intact,” she said.

Attendees carry campaign signs at a rally for Paxton and other Republicans at Glorious Way Church.

In Cypress, Nyna Saenz, 36, who leads a volunteer network canvassing for Talarico and other Democratic candidates, said it’s been contentious: “If you run into a die-hard Republican, they will slam the door in your face.”

In her own family, she said she has conservative, religious relatives who plan to vote for Paxton, but at least one plans to abstain from voting due to Paxton’s infidelity (Angela Paxton’s divorce filing last year cited “biblical grounds and adultery.”)

In Bridgeland, Maria Smith, a mother of two who works in medical content sales, said she fears that if Ken Paxton is elected, more corruption allegations will surface.

Smith, 48, said she voted for Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary, but now plans to vote for Talarico because unlike Paxton, “he always answers questions directly.”Angela Paxton’s ad, she said, “was an even bigger turnoff.”

“It’s ‘Do as I say, not as I do,’” she said, adding that she expects some conservative neighbors to stay home on Election Day.

Watching her son’s flag-football game nearby, Michelle Burch described herself as independent: conservative on fiscal policy, liberal on social issues.

Her husband, who like many in the area works in the oil and gas industry, plans to vote for Ken Paxton for economic reasons. But Burch, 42, an elementary schoolteacher, said she was voting based on the candidate’s character.

“I’m teaching kids here’s what you do, here’s what you don’t do. And Paxton is not someone you can look up to,” she said. She mentioned Paxton’s theft of a pen from a courthouse, caught in security video, that Talarico highlighted in a campaign ad.

“How you treat people should matter,” Burch said, describing Paxton as “not trustworthy.”

A few streets over, McKenna Nevers, an independent fiscal conservative who didn’t vote in the primary, said she’s still undecided.

Nevers, 39, a data consultant, said she was bothered by Paxton’s “smear campaign,” including a flier opposing gender transition care that she was afraid her two young children might see.

Nevers, whose husband is a doctor, said parents should make decisions about care for transgender children in consultation with their doctors, particularly on hormones children might need for other reasons.

And Nevers said that’s not the main concern deciding her vote. “Maybe because I’m a mom, it’s: What’s your position on how you’re going to make our life better?” she said.

She said Talarico promised to address issues that concern her — public schools, safety, affordability, taxes. But she wasn’t sure he could work across the aisle to get results in Washington.

“I generally like the way that he talks, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to vote for him,” Nevers said. “Can he get what he’s talking about done?”