全球失衡正在扩大，一方面是美国贸易赤字，另一方面是亚洲的巨额顺差，这对全球经济和市场构成日益增长的风险。人工智能正是其中的核心。
Global imbalances are expanding, with the US trade deficit on one side and outsized Asian surpluses on the other posing growing risks to economies and markets worldwide. AI lies at the heart of it.
美国贸易赤字在8月扩大至1056亿美元，为17个月来的最高水平。这得益于进口激增4.3%，达到历史最高的4208亿美元，因为企业正在大量采购创纪录的人工智能建设所需的计算机芯片、设备和材料。明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行8月的一份报告估计，大约70%的美国企业人工智能相关资本支出用于进口商品。
The US trade deficit widened in August to $105.6 billion, a 17-month high. This was thanks to a 4.3% surge in imports to an all-time high of $420.8 billion as companies sucked in the computer chips, equipment and materials needed for the record-busting AI buildout. A Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis paper in August estimated that around 70% of US firms’ AI-related capital spending is on imported goods.
这些货物中的许多正源自亚洲的少数几个国家，如韩国、台湾和中国，这些国家的贸易顺差在最近几个月里已飙升至历史高点。今年中国的出口增长了22%。
Many of these shipments are coming from a handful of countries in Asia, such as South Korea, Taiwan and China, whose trade surpluses have exploded to historic heights in recent months. China's exports this year have leapt by 22%.
巴克莱银行的经济学家估计，半导体和自动数据处理设备及零部件占了其中的近三分之二。人工智能相关商品对韩国和台湾出口增长的贡献甚至更大。韩国的出口在9月较去年同期增长了83.5%，因为半导体出货量增长了三倍多；而台湾的顺差在9月达到236亿美元，创下月度新高。
Economists at Barclays estimate that semiconductors and automatic data-processing equipment and parts account for almost two-thirds of that. The contribution of AI-related goods to South Korea and Taiwan's export boom is even greater. South Korea's exports jumped 83.5% in September from a year earlier as semiconductor shipments more than tripled, while Taiwan's surplus in September hit $23.6 billion, a monthly record.
鉴于这些持续不断的流动，中国有望在今年录得连续第二年超过1万亿美元的贸易顺差；根据外交关系委员会的布拉德·塞策尔的说法，韩国和台湾明年可能合计实现1万亿美元的经常账户顺差。
Given these unrelenting flows, China is well on course to record a second consecutive annual trade surplus of over $1 trillion this year, while South Korea and Taiwan could post a combined $1 trillion current account surplus next year, according to Brad Setser at the Council on Foreign Relations.
这些亚洲顺差的大部分正被再循环回流到美国资产，主要是股票，因为海外投资者正在追逐美国人工智能彩虹尽头的金矿。
The combined Asian surpluses are, for the most part, being recycled into US assets, mostly stocks, as overseas investors chase the pots of gold at the end of the American AI rainbow.
这些不断扩大的外部失衡正在敲响警钟。国际货币基金组织和其他国际机构的官员警告称，失衡会扭曲资产价格并助长金融泡沫，许多分析师认为这种动态已经在上演。快速、无序的收尾可能带来极端后果，可能包括美元急剧贬值、华尔街剧烈波动以及全球利率突然飙升。上周全球股市的动荡或许只是一个预演。
These widening external balances are ringing alarm bells. Officials from the International Monetary Fund and other international institutions warn that imbalances can distort asset prices and inflate financial bubbles, a dynamic that many analysts argue is already playing out. The consequences of a rapid, disorderly unwind could be extreme, potentially including a sharp depreciation of the US dollar, huge volatility on Wall Street, and a sudden spike in global interest rates. Last week’s ructions in global equities may have been a sneak peek.
美国的贸易赤字和亚洲的高额出口并非新鲜事，但近年来发生变化的是，这些盈余正流向何处。
US trade deficits and sky-high Asian exports are nothing new, but what’s changed in recent years is where the surpluses are flowing.
过去，亚洲的盈余通常会被再投资于美国国债，因为亚洲央行试图建立外汇储备。因此，美国国债收益率被压低，美国消费需求得到支撑，双方经济都保持增长。但如今，这些盈余正流向华尔街。
In years gone by, Asia's surpluses were typically reinvested into US Treasuries as Asian central banks sought to build their foreign currency reserves. As a result, US bond yields were capped, US consumer demand was propped up, and economies on both sides of the divide kept growing. But those surpluses are now flowing into Wall Street.
周五公布的美国财政部国际资本（TIC）数据显示，外国投资者在8月净买入美国证券的规模飙升至2792亿美元，创下单月最高纪录。其中绝大部分来自私营部门，超过一半的资金流入股市，海外私营部门买入了1319亿美元的股票，仅次于6月的1447亿美元，为历史第二大单月流入。截至8月的12个月内，外国私营部门净流入美国股票的规模达到8440亿美元，较去年同期增长超过30%。
Treasury International Capital (TIC) data on Friday showed that foreign investors' net purchases of US securities in August jumped to $279.2 billion, a record amount for a single month. The vast majority of that came from the private sector, with more than half of it plowed into equities, with the overseas private sector buying $131.9 billion of stocks, the second-biggest inflow on record behind June's $144.7 billion. Foreign private-sector net inflows into US stocks in the 12 months through August stood at $844 billion, up more than 30% from a year earlier.
投资也在涌入美国企业债市场，超大规模科技公司及其他参与人工智能建设的企业发行债券激增。截至8月的12个月内，外国对美国企业债券的购买总额达到4640亿美元，同样较去年同期增长超过30%。看来，每个人都想分一杯人工智能热潮的羹。
Investment is also flooding into the US corporate debt market, where issuance from hyperscalers and others involved in the AI buildout has rocketed. Foreign purchases of US corporate bonds in the 12 months through August totaled $464 billion, also up more than 30% on the year. Everyone, it seems, wants in on the AI mania.
当然，这种集中度的提升也增加了这些市场出现波动时出现无序退出的风险。上周我们已经看到一些迹象。费城半导体指数(.SOX)周五连续第八个交易日下跌，创下自2008年10月以来的最长连跌纪录。该指数上周累计下跌11.5%。
Of course, this concentration heightens the risk of a disorderly exit when these markets turn. We already got glimpses of that last week. The Philadelphia chip index (.SOX) fell on Friday for the eighth straight day, marking its longest losing streak since October 2008. The index shed 11.5% last week.
与此同时，许多用于为数据中心建设融资而发行的债券最近已跌至每美元面值低于80美分的困境区域。
Meanwhile, many of the bonds issued to fund the construction of data centers have recently dipped into distressed territory below 80 cents on the dollar.
“在严重情景下，我们可能会看到市场修正在高度杠杆化和循环的人工智能生态系统中蔓延。鉴于人工智能资产的跨境持有规模较大，损失可能会在全球范围内蔓延，”国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃上周写道。
如果她的说法正确，人工智能的去杠杆化过程可能会变得非常糟糕。
"In a severe scenario, we could see a market correction that cascades through the highly leveraged and circular AI ecosystem.
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Given the sizable cross-border holdings of AI assets, the losses could spread around the world," IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva wrote last week. If she’s right, the AI unwind could get ugly.