根据一份新报告，全球商品贸易正顶着关税、战争和地缘政治分歧带来的压力，在人工智能设备需求激增的推动下保持韧性，同时美国与中国也在重塑彼此的经济依赖关系。
Global goods trade is withstanding the drags of tariffs, wars and geopolitical rifts, fueled by the boom in demand for artificial intelligence gear and staying resilient as the US and China rewire their economic dependencies, a new report showed.
DHL全球化追踪报告显示，今年商品贸易增长预计将达4.6%，高于1月份预测的3.6%。该报告由总部位于德国波恩的包裹配送巨头DHL集团与纽约大学斯特恩商学院联合制作。明年的增长预期也被上调至3.6%，高于1月份预测的2.7%。
Growth in merchandise trade this year is forecast at 4.6%, stronger than the 3.6% gain predicted in January, according to the DHL Globalization Tracker, which is co-produced by the Bonn, Germany-based parcel delivery giant DHL Group and New York University’s Stern School of Business. The outlook for next year was upgraded, too, to 3.6% from a January projection of 2.7%.
此前因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对基于规则的贸易体系的破坏而显得悲观的2026年前景预测已被证明并不准确。荷兰中央规划局（CPB）上个月发布的数据也证实，全球贸易额在7月达到了历史新高。目前，近四分之三的跨境贸易仍在世界贸易组织（WTO）的低关税框架下进行。
Gloomy forecasts heading into 2026 driven by US President Donald Trump’s demolition of the rules-based trading system have proved off target, and separate figures from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis confirmed last month that trade volumes worldwide hit an all-time high in July. Almost three-quarters of cross-border commerce is still conducted under the World Trade Organization’s low-tariff terms.
DHL与斯特恩商学院联合发布的这份报告于周三公布，预计2029年前全球商品贸易年均增长率为3.45%，高于过去十年年均2.7%的水平，不过未来三年的增速将有所放缓。
The DHL-Stern report, released Wednesday, sees annual goods trade growth averaging 3.45% through 2029 — compared with 2.7% a year over the past decade — though the pace slows over the next three years.
“主要贸易经济体中的合作伙伴或许正在变化，但贸易仍在持续，并逐渐适应‘新常态’，”曾在特朗普第一任期内担任经济顾问委员会成员的WTO副总干事詹妮弗·诺德奎斯特上周在瑞士的一场会议上表示。“一个人的保护主义，可能正是另一个人的经济安全。”贸易增长通常与全球GDP的起伏同步，但近期进出口流量表现得比整体经济活动更为稳健。
“Partners may be changing within the top trading economies, but trade has still been occurring and adjusting to a ‘new normal,’” WTO Deputy Director-General Jennifer Nordquist, who served on the Council of Economic Advisers during Trump’s first term, said last week at a conference in Switzerland. “One man’s protectionism may be another’s economic security.”Trade growth typically tracks the ups and downs of global GDP, but lately the flows of exports and imports have held up better than broad economic activity.
中国近期的主要航运枢纽面临拥堵问题，导致延误增加并推高集装箱运费。美国最大的港口——洛杉矶港，在6月至8月期间迎来了有记录以来最繁忙的时期。
Shipping gateways in China have recently struggled with congestion, adding delays and pushing up container rates. The Port of Los Angeles, the largest in the US, had its busiest June-to-August stretch on record.
特朗普政策的不可预测性，以及为应对白宫政策突然变化而需要增加库存，都是需求持续强劲的原因之一，但根据DHL-Stern的报告，人工智能才是当前货运繁荣的主要驱动力。
Trump’s policy unpredictability and the need to pad inventories against sudden White House changes are among the reasons for the durability of demand, but AI is the main driver of the current freight boom, according to the DHL-Stern report.
报告援引世界贸易组织（WTO）和经济合作与发展组织（OECD）的数据称，去年由人工智能驱动的商品占所有商品贸易增长的42%，而在2026年第一季度，这一比例跃升至近76%。
AI-enabling goods accounted for 42% of all merchandise trade growth last year, a share that jumped to nearly 76% during the first quarter of 2026, the report said, citing WTO and OECD data.
“我看到贸易正在流动——有需求，也有供应，”迪拜世界集团（DP World）集团首席商务官兼物流首席运营官Beat Simon在周三接受采访时说，“这不仅仅是数字革命的结果，其背后还有庞大的实体供应链。”这也有助于解释为何全球最大上市集装箱运输公司A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S的股价本周创下历史新高，以及世界最大货运代理公司之一的首席执行官为何认为，为科技巨头及其数据中心提供服务的物流行业未来至少还有三年的两位数增长。
“I see trade flowing — there is demand, there is supply,” said Beat Simon, DP World’s group chief commercial officer and chief operating officer for logistics, in an interview Wednesday. “It’s not only the digital revolution. Underneath is an enormous physical supply chain.”That helps explain why shares of A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the largest publicly traded container carrier, climbed to a record this week, and the CEO of one of the world’s largest freight forwarders sees at least three years of double-digit growth in logistics services catering to tech giants and their data centers.
人工智能设备的出口为深受燃料价格上涨冲击的亚洲经济体带来了巨大提振。美国政府在周二发布的一份报告显示，今年8月，美国从台湾的进口额增长了57%，从越南增长了44%，从韩国增长了28%。而美国从中国进口的商品则同比下降了16%。
AI equipment exports have given a huge lift to Asian economies hit hard by higher fuel prices. A US government report released Tuesday showed American imports increased 57% from Taiwan through August this year, 44% from Vietnam and 28% from South Korea. Chinese imports into the US were down 16% from a year earlier.
尽管如此，纽约大学（NYU）的研究人员Steven Altman和Caroline Bastian在报告中指出，中国的出口增速甚至超过了全球平均水平，并且正在寻找美国以外的市场进行销售，这引发了人们对欧盟等经济体中不公平竞争问题的担忧。
Still, in their report, NYU researchers Steven Altman and Caroline Bastian said China’s exports expanded even faster than the global average and are finding markets other than the US to sell to, raising concerns about unfair competition in economies such as the European Union.
然而，目前仍存在诸多供需方面的逆风因素，而乌克兰和伊朗的战争对贸易产生了“严重但集中”的影响。报告指出，政府政策是“另一股负面力量”，尽管“其全球影响可能比这些政策变化的剧烈程度所暗示的要有限得多”。报告还提到，2025年美国占全球进口的比重为13%，而美国进口商品中约有一半被豁免于特朗普加征的关税。“尽管近期国际贸易环境受到冲击，但贸易前景实际上已经改善。”报告称。
Plenty of supply and demand headwinds exist, though, and wars in Ukraine and Iran have had “severe but concentrated” effects on trade. Government policy is “another negative force,” the report said, even though the “global impact is more limited than the dramatic nature of the policy changes might suggest.”The US share of global imports was 13% in 2025, and about half of American imports were exempted from Trump’s higher tariffs, the report noted. “Despite the recent shocks to the international trade environment, the outlook for trade has actually improved,” it said.
DHL-Stern报告评估了其他形式的全球化——资本、信息和人员流动——是否正在倒退。该评估通过一个互联互通指数进行衡量，其中0%表示没有跨境活动，100%则表示不存在任何边境或距离障碍。
The DHL-Stern report assesses whether globalization in other forms — flows of capital, information and people — is retreating in a connectedness index where 0% equals no cross-border activity and 100% reflects no border or distance hindrances.
2025年，资本和信息“在国际活动相对于国内活动的增长幅度上创下最高纪录”，推动整体指数达到25.8%的历史高位。
Capital and information “recorded the largest increases in international relative to domestic activity in 2025,” helping push the overall index to a record high of 25.8% in 2025.
报告指出，这一水平“强烈挑战了全球化已经倒退的观点，但也凸显了全球化仍然十分有限。即便经过数十年的全球化进程，全球目前仍更接近于多个相互独立的国家经济体系，而非完全一体化的全球经济——这一比例仅为约25%。”
That level “strongly challenges the notion that globalization has gone into reverse. But it also highlights how limited globalization remains,” the report stated. “At roughly 25%, the world remains far closer to a collection of separate national economies than to full global integration — even after decades of globalization.”