街头周一收复部分失地，因为投资者回购了被击垮的科技股，并期待关键的财报发布，而对人工智能的担忧有所缓解，也使得上周因避险需求推高的债券需求降温，收益率随之上升。与此同时，法国的动乱和骚乱对法国债券价格造成沉重打压，并推动欧元走低。
Street recovered some ground on Monday as investors bought back beaten-down tech stocks and looked forward to key earnings reports, while easing worries over AI also cooled last week's safe-haven demand for bonds and pushed yields higher. Unrest and riots in France, meanwhile, weighed heavily on French bond prices and pushed the euro lower.
在我的今日专栏中，我将审视人工智能在加剧全球失衡和推动全球资本流动中的关键作用。这两者日益紧密相连。如果投资者对人工智能的情绪转冷 — — 而有迹象表明这可能正在发生 — — 那么这种逆转可能会变得混乱不堪。今日重点阅读今日谈话要点：政治风险在法国、巴西、美国等国升温 — — 这些国家的两极化政治和临近选举正日益成为投资者需要考虑的重要风险因素。
In my column today, I look at AI's pivotal role in exacerbating global imbalances and driving global capital flows. The two are increasingly connected. If investor sentiment towards AI sours — and there are signs this may be happening — then the unwind could get messy. Today's Key Reads Today's Talking Points: Political risk sizzles France, Brazil, the US — just a few of the countries where polarized politics and looming elections are becoming increasingly important risk factors for investors to consider.
法国并非欧洲 — — 或世界 — — 唯一面临艰难财政挑战的国家，但该国蔓延的骚乱不太可能让应对这些挑战变得更容易。巴西将于周日举行备受关注的总统选举第二轮投票，而美国中期选举仅两周后就将举行，届时可能看到唐纳德·特朗普总统领导的共和党失去对国会两院的控制力。
France isn't the only country in Europe — or the world — facing unenviable fiscal challenges, but the riots spreading across the country are unlikely to make meeting them any easier. Brazilians go to the polls on Sunday in a closely contested runoff presidential election vote, and the US midterm elections barely two weeks away could see President Donald Trump's Republican Party lose control of both houses of Congress.
可负担性、通胀、高能源价格以及在人工智能革命背景下对就业安全的担忧，正主导着各国的全国性讨论。上周在曼谷参加IMF/世界银行会议的政策制定者们共同呼吁财政纪律、人工智能警惕以及应对全球贸易失衡。但当各国内政如此分裂、多边主义精神已降至数十年来最低点时，这说起来容易做起来难。
Affordability, inflation, high energy prices, and worries over job security amid the AI revolution are issues dominating the national conversation in every country. Policymakers gathered in Bangkok for the IMF/World Bank meetings last week shared calls for fiscal discipline, AI vigilance, and tackling global trade imbalances. But that's easier said than done when domestic politics are so fractured everywhere, and the spirit of multilateralism is its lowest in decades.
FXing a hole 中国经济在第三季度增长了4.5%，官方数据周一显示。好消息是 — — 这一增速快于经济学家的预期；不太好的消息是 — — 这一增长是由强劲的出口拉动的，这使得中国有望超过去年创纪录的1.2万亿美元贸易顺差。中国日益扩大的贸易顺差是导致全球失衡加剧的关键因素，而IMF及其他机构正在对此发出警告。
FXing a hole China's economy grew by 4.5% in the third quarter, official figures on Monday showed. The good news — that was faster than economists had expected; the not so good news — it was driven by roaring exports, which are putting the country on course to top last year's record $1.2 trillion trade surplus. China's bulging surplus is a key contributor to the expanding global imbalances that the IMF and others are warning about.
也许人民币的升值将有助于使经济摆脱对出口的依赖并支持国内需求。人民币在过去18个月里一直稳步升值，目前对美元汇率已达到4年高点。但人民币的更广义“实际有效汇率”（REER）仍处于较弱水平。是的，其REER值自去年5月以来已上升7%，但它目前仍比四年前低约15%，并且正好处于过去20年的平均水平。
Perhaps the rising yuan will help wean the economy off exports and support domestic demand. The yuan has been appreciating steadily for the last 18 months, and is now at a 4-year high against the dollar. But the yuan's broader 'real effective exchange rate,' or REER, is still on the weak side. Yes, its REER value has risen 7% since May last year, but it's also around 15% weaker than it was four years ago and right now is right on its average of the past 20 years.
AI回旋镖 上周抛售之后，全球AI交易本周开局强劲。至少，随着科技财报即将陆续公布，美国市场情绪有所改善 — — “SOX”半导体指数周一终结了八连跌，这是自2008年10月以来的最长跌幅。周一上涨2.5%是个良好的开端，但若要收复上周11.5%的跌幅，仍需更多努力。同样，韩国KOSPI指数在最近两个交易日反弹4%将受到欢迎，但该指数仍比两周前低约20%。
AI boomerang After last week's selloff, the global AI trade got off to a stronger start this week. At least, with tech earnings about to begin rolling out, sentiment in the US improved — the 'SOX' semiconductor index on Monday snapped an eight-day losing streak, its worst run since October 2008. The 2.5% rise on Monday is a good start, but there's more to go if last week's 11.5% slump is to be clawed back. Similarly, South Korea's KOSPI's 4% rebound in the last two trading sessions will be welcomed, but the index is still down around 20% from where it was two weeks ago.
正如上文提到的政治情况一样，AI情绪也正日益两极分化。很少有人怀疑这项技术的变革意义，但多头和空头正在为长期较量做准备。所有人的目光现在都集中在美国财报上，以及即将公布的数字和公司展望是否能够证明当前（仍然）高企的股价是合理的。什么因素可能影响明日的市场走势？
Like politics mentioned above, AI sentiment is becoming increasingly polarized. Few people doubt the technology's transformative significance, but bulls and bears are digging in for the long haul. All eyes are now on US earnings, and whether the incoming numbers and company outlooks justify the (still) lofty stock prices. What could move markets tomorrow?