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玛丽娜·勒庞借法国乱局将自己塑造成候任领导人Marine Le Pen Seizes on French Chaos to Present Herself as Leader in Waiting

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玛丽娜·勒庞将自己塑造成唯一愿意恢复秩序的总统候选人。(斯蒂芬妮·勒科克/路透社)Marine Le Pen has cast herself as the only presidential candidate willing to restore order. (Stephanie Lecocq/Reuters)

巴黎——席卷法国的骚乱冲击了该国的政治格局,但一人有望在混乱中脱颖而出,掌握更大的主动权:玛丽娜·勒庞。

PARIS—The riots sweeping France have rocked the country’s political establishment, but one person is positioned to emerge from the chaos with a stronger hand: Marine Le Pen.

十多年来,这位极右翼领袖一直将法国描绘成一个漂泊的国家,饱受移民和无序之波的冲击,这些冲击撕裂了该国的社会肌理。随着穿戴兜帽、身着深色衣物的暴徒群体涌入法国各地市中心,冲击市政厅、洗劫数千家商店,勒庞一直试图把自己塑造成今年春季总统选举中唯一愿意恢复秩序的候选人。

For more than a decade, the far-right leader has cast France as a nation adrift, buffeted by waves of immigration and lawlessness that have torn at the country’s social fabric. As bands of hooded rioters in dark clothing have descended on city centers across France, raiding city halls and looting thousands of stores, Le Pen has sought to present herself as the sole candidate in this spring’s presidential election willing to restore order.

本周,勒庞发布的一段视频讲话凸显了这一策略,其风格仿佛总统面向全国发表讲话。她坐在书桌前,身后是一座庄严的书架,旁边是法国的三色旗,勒庞将骚乱描述为对埃马纽埃尔·马克龙总统权威的信任危机。

The strategy was on display this week as Le Pen released a video address that bore the hallmarks of a president addressing the nation. Seated at a desk before an august bookcase and flanked by France’s tricolor flag, Le Pen cast the riots as a crisis of faith in President Emmanuel Macron’s authority.

“我们的国家陷入夹缝,在暴力与无能之间被劫持,”勒庞说。“六个月后,法国人民将能够选择一条不同的道路——一条权威与安全恢复之路。”这一做法让勒庞在争夺法国最高职位时显得势在必行。

“Our country is caught in a vice, held hostage between violence and powerlessness,” Le Pen said. “In six months, the French people will be able to choose a different path—one of authority and restored security.”The approach has given Le Pen an air of inevitability as she pursues France’s highest office.

“她就像已经在办公室,已经在爱丽舍宫,”法国民调机构益普索BVA的民调员阿德莱德·祖尔菲卡帕西奇说。

“It’s as if she’s at the office, already at the Élysée Palace,” said Adélaïde Zulfikarpasic, a pollster at the French polling firm Ipsos Bva.

祖尔菲卡帕西奇表示,勒庞长期聚焦法律与秩序,使她能够在民主本身陷入危机时把自己定位为稳定的守护者。

Le Pen’s long-running focus on law and order, Zulfikarpasic said, allows her to position herself as a guarantor of stability when democracy itself is in crisis.

“人们不再相信国家能够保护他们并满足他们的需求。而她正与此形成对比,”她说。

“People no longer have confidence in the state to ensure their protection and meet their needs. And she’s contrasting with that,” she said.

骚乱正以其他方式为勒庞带来优势。随着暴力事件升温,竞选总统的极左派火种人物让-吕克·梅朗雄凭借对抗议者的支持占据头条新闻,淹没了建制派候选人,并提升了他与勒庞进入第二轮决选的机会。如果他成功,民调显示,勒庞将轻松击败他。

The riots are working to Le Pen’s advantage in other ways. As the violence has flared, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left firebrand running for president, has dominated headlines with his support for protesters, drowning out establishment candidates and bolstering his chances of reaching the second-round runoff with Le Pen. If he succeeds, polls show, Le Pen would beat him handily.

极左翼候选人让-吕克·梅朗雄支持抗议者,令其建制派对手黯然失色。(阿卜杜勒·萨布尔/路透社)Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has backed protesters, overshadowing his establishment rivals. (Abdul Saboor/Reuters)

与梅朗雄竞争的社会党候选人拉斐尔·格吕克斯曼形容他为“极右翼的垫脚石,因为如果不是勒庞夫人,谁会从这场混乱中获益?”勒庞在之前的总统选举中表现不佳,在投票第一轮临近时民调领先,但在决选中因支持其他候选人的选民聚拢到马克龙一方而以较大差距落败。然而这一次,马克龙因任期限制无法连任。与此同时,勒庞的新地位在某种程度上标志着角色的逆转。

Raphaël Glucksmann, the socialist candidate competing with Mélenchon, described him as a “steppingstone for the far-right, because who is going to benefit from this chaos if not Madame Le Pen.”Le Pen has underperformed in previous presidential elections, riding high in the polls as the first round of voting approached, only to lose by a wide margin in the runoff as voters who supported other candidates coalesced around Macron. This time, however, Macron is term-limited. Le Pen’s newfound status, meanwhile, marks something of a role reversal.

勒庞继承父亲让-玛丽·勒庞的政党长期被视为一种冒险的反建制力量,无法被依赖来治理法国并确保其经济稳定。他因一再淡化大屠杀而受到谴责,并于2015年因其观点被女儿开除出党。勒庞本人在2017年首次对抗马克龙参选时,因承诺让法国退出欧元——即欧洲单一货币——而吓到选民。

The party that Le Pen inherited from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, was long regarded as a risky, antiestablishment force that couldn’t be relied upon to govern France and ensure its economic stability. He drew condemnation for repeatedly minimizing the Holocaust and was expelled from the party by his daughter in 2015 for his views. Le Pen herself spooked voters when she first ran against Macron in 2017 with her pledge to pull France out of the euro, the continent’s single currency.

近十年后,马克龙成为需要向法国和全球投资者提供保证的一方。他的政府多年来一直维持超过国内生产总值5%的赤字,引发人们对法国能否修复财政的疑虑,并推高了该国的借贷成本。该国债务总额已接近国内生产总值的120%。

Nearly a decade later, Macron is the one under pressure to reassure France and global investors. His governments have been running deficits above 5% of GDP for years, sowing doubts about whether France can repair its finances and pushing up the country’s borrowing costs. The country’s debt pile is nearly 120% of gross domestic product.

勒庞及其所属的国民联盟党在财政混乱中发挥了作用,投票赞成罢免两名试图引入削减开支和控制赤字的马克龙总理。勒庞还在竞选中承诺将法国的退休年龄降低至低至60岁,这一举措将使该国年度赤字增加数十亿欧元。

Le Pen and her party, National Rally, have played a role in the fiscal mess, voting to oust two of Macron’s prime ministers who sought to introduce spending cuts and rein in the deficit. Le Pen is also campaigning on a pledge to lower France’s retirement age to as low as 60, a move that would add billions to the country’s annual deficit.

然而,勒庞的经济记录如今基本被马克龙任期最后几个月爆发的骚乱和危机所掩盖。

Le Pen’s economic record, however, is now largely overshadowed by the riots and the crisis engulfing Macron’s final months in office.

由学生主导的抗议活动最初针对学校条件恶劣,现已扩大为围绕生活成本及其他问题的更广泛运动。(帕特里克·瓦克)Student-led protests over poor schools have widened into a broader movement over living costs and other issues. (Patrick Wack)

抗议活动最初是学生因学校条件不佳而发起的投诉,随后升级为一场更广泛的运动,其动力来自对生活成本的不满、公共开支削减以及对政府的不满。

The protests have escalated from a student-led set of complaints over conditions in schools into a broader movement driven by grievances over the cost of living, cuts to public spending and dissatisfaction with government.

周一,马克龙办公室表示,内政部长洛朗·纽涅斯已提出辞职,但总统因需要稳定领导而予以拒绝。随后政府宣布在购物区和其他骚乱热点地区实施宵禁。当局称,全国范围内周末有超过3000家商店遭到破坏或抢劫,并表示受影响的企业将有资格获得国家援助,以临时支付员工工资。

On Monday, Macron’s office said his interior minister, Laurent Nuñez, had offered his resignation, but the president had declined it because of the need for stable leadership. The government then announced it was imposing a curfew in shopping districts and other rioting hot spots. More than 3,000 stores were damaged or looted nationwide over the weekend, authorities said, adding that affected businesses would be eligible for state aid to temporarily pay their staff.

“周末的社会动荡完全符合勒庞的竞选论调——即建制派制造了混乱,现在正是尝试不同选择的时候,”风险分析公司欧亚集团欧洲负责人穆杰塔布·拉赫曼说道。

“The social instability over the weekend absolutely plays into Le Pen’s campaign that the establishment has delivered chaos and now is the time to try something different,” said Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe for risk analysis firm Eurasia Group.

拉赫曼表示,勒庞最终的目标是说服选民:“她不是风险,投票给国民联盟也不是风险。风险来自那些未能兑现经济承诺的既得政党。”与此同时,勒庞的反移民立场为她提供了另一种解读骚乱的方式。她将骚乱描述为法国极左激进分子与来自法国郊区(即该国大部分少数穆斯林人口居住的贫困城市外围地区)青年联手所致。

Rahman said Le Pen ultimately aims to persuade voters that she “is not the risk, voting National Rally isn’t the risk. The risk is coming from the established parties that are failing to deliver on the economy.”Le Pen’s anti-immigration stance, meanwhile, gives her another way to frame the unrest. Le Pen has cast the unrest as the work of far-left radicals allied with youths from France’s banlieues, the poor urban outskirts where much of the country’s minority Muslim population resides.

[视频] 火焰焚烧历史街道和建筑,法国抗议爆发“抢劫行为引起了对一部分人口的关注——具体来说,是来自某些社区的年轻人,其中一些人有移民背景,”民调专家Zulfikarpasic说。“这触及了国民联盟修辞核心的主题。”然而,随着勒庞进入竞选的最后阶段,她却面临着因2025年被裁定滥用欧洲议会资金而引发的法律雷区。

[video] Flames Scorch Historic Streets and Buildings as French Protests Erupt“The looting drew attention to a segment of the population—specifically young people from certain neighborhoods, some of whom are from immigrant backgrounds,” said Zulfikarpasic, the pollster. “And that hits the themes at the heart of National Rally’s rhetoric.”As Le Pen approaches the final stretch of the campaign, however, she faces a legal minefield stemming from her 2025 conviction for misusing European Parliament funds.

勒庞否认有任何不当行为。7月,上诉法院维持了原判,判处她三年监禁,其中两年缓刑。法官表示,剩余的一年可能通过佩戴电子脚铐来执行,这引发了勒庞可能需要在司法监督下进行竞选的可能性。

Le Pen has denied any wrongdoing. In July, an appeals court upheld the ruling, sentencing her to a three-year prison term, with two of the years suspended. The remaining year, judges said, could be served wearing an electronic bracelet, raising the possibility that Le Pen will have to campaign under judicial surveillance.

写信至Stacy Meichtry,邮箱:Stacy.Meichtry@wsj.com

Write to Stacy Meichtry at Stacy. Meichtry@wsj.com

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