伦敦，10月20日：由于AI担忧冲击科技股，伊朗战争持续并导致能源价格居高不下，加之对高政府债务负担的担忧持续存在，避险资产需求强劲。
LONDON, Oct 20 : Demand for safe-haven assets is strong as AI jitters hurt tech stocks, the Iran war continues and keeps energy prices elevated, while worries about high government debt loads persist.
然而，传统避险资产今年的表现未如预期般强劲：伊朗战争爆发后，黄金出现回落，因为投资者在其他地区遭受损失后抛售了此前表现最佳的资产。政府债券曾被视为全球最安全的资产之一，如今却出现波动。以下是一些避险资产当前表现的概览。
Yet traditional safe havens have not performed as well as expected this year: Gold sold off after the start of the Iran war as investors ditched top-performing assets given losses elsewhere. Government bonds, once considered one of the world's safest assets, are volatile. Here is a look at how some safe havens currently stack up.
1) 与美元的爱恨关系：摆脱去年“抛售美元”的主题，美元自伊朗战争爆发以来持续走强，较2月下旬末已上涨4%。
1) LOVE/HATE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE DOLLAR Breaking with last year's 'sell US' theme, the dollar has rallied since the Iran war started, up 4 per cent since late February.
这进一步巩固了其在全球动荡时期作为首选避险资产的角色。美国经济强劲、利率较高以及其能源出口国地位均起到了推动作用。
That has reinforced its role as a go-to safe haven at times of global stress. A strong economy, higher rates, and the US's energy-exporter status have helped.
但导致交易员质疑美元长期避险地位的因素——如超过40万亿美元的债务堆积和政策不确定性——尚未消散。
But factors that caused traders to question the dollar's long-term safe-haven status, such as a more than $40 trillion debt pile and policy uncertainty, have not dissipated.
美元也容易受到科技股抛售的影响，因为它曾受益于美国股票的创纪录资本流入，这源于对AI投资热潮的乐观预期。
The dollar is also vulnerable to tech selling as it has benefited from record capital inflows into US shares on optimism over the AI investment boom.
法国兴业银行首席外汇策略师Kit Juckes表示，美元可能正接近牛市的尾声。
The dollar could be nearing the back end of a bull market, Societe Generale chief FX strategist Kit Juckes said.
“他指出，‘它没有太大的上行空间了’，但同时表示，目前很难为持续做空美元找到正当理由，因为‘全球大故事是美元是一种石油货币，而我们正处于能源危机之中’。”
"It hasn't got that much further to go," he noted, but said it was hard to justify a sustained bet against the dollar at present because the "big global story is that the dollar is a petrocurrency and we're in the middle of an energy crisis".
2) 欧洲动荡，买入瑞郎：法国驱动的债券动荡表明，当欧洲出现动荡时，瑞郎是首选避险货币。
2) EUROPE WOBBLES, BUY SWISSIE One takeaway from France-driven bond turmoil is that the Swiss franc is a haven of choice when Europe wobbles.
截至目前，瑞郎对欧元本月已上涨超过2%，有望录得自2023年底以来的最大月度涨幅。
It is up over 2 per cent so far this month against the euro, poised for its biggest monthly jump since late 2023.
“法国公共财政方面的担忧以及法国和西班牙的选举不确定性正在支撑瑞郎，”ABN Amro高级外汇及油品策略师Georgette Boele表示。
"Concerns about France's public finances and election uncertainty in France and Spain have supported the franc," said Georgette Boele, senior FX & oil strategist at ABN Amro.
她补充说，投资者也在减少使用瑞郎进行套利交易的意愿，更倾向于不持有具有避险属性的货币的空头头寸。
She added that investors were also becoming less keen to use the franc to fund carry trades, preferring not to position against a currency with safe-haven qualities.
由于瑞士利率为0%，瑞郎在投资者以低利率货币借款、在其他地区投资高收益资产的交易中很受欢迎。分析师表示，人工智能引发的担忧也应有利于瑞郎。
Swiss rates at 0 per cent make the franc popular in trades where investors borrow in a currency with low rates to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. The AI jitters should also benefit the Swiss franc, analysts said.
3) 德国国债相对表现更佳 政府债券作为避险资产的声誉因财政担忧而受到冲击。美国至日本的借贷成本最近升至数十年来的高点。然而，科技股抛售却重新激发了部分对债券的需求。还有一个明显的发展。
3) GERMAN BONDS A RELATIVE WINNER Government bonds' reputation as a safe haven has been battered by fiscal concerns. Borrowing costs from the US to Japan recently hit multi-decade highs. The tech-driven stocks selloff has, however, renewed some demand for bonds. There is another noticeable development.
当美国和法国10年期国债收益率本月早些时候触及24年高点时，德国国债收益率随价格上涨而下降。
When US and French 10-year bond yields hit 24-year peaks earlier this month, German yields fell as their prices rose.
投资者表示，这清楚地表明，评级为AAA的德国联邦债券（Bunds）在主要经济体中脱颖而出，成为避险资产。
Investors say that is a clear sign that triple-A rated German Bunds stand out as safe havens among major economies.
德国联邦银行行行长约阿希姆·纳格尔表示，尽管欧洲债券市场动荡，德国将继续成为欧洲的稳定锚点，并在多年停滞后“正在恢复活力”。
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said Germany would remain the anchor of stability in Europe amid bond turmoil and was "getting fit" after years of stagnation.
“每个人都担心欧洲的蔓延风险以及德国国债是否会被（法国）OAT、（意大利）BTP所拖累，因此德国国债能够充当这种欧洲风险规避工具是件好事，”TwentyFour Asset Management的投资组合经理约翰森·欧文说道。4) 您忘了短期国债吗？
"Everyone worries about contagion in Europe and whether the Bund just gets dragged along with (French) OATs, (Italian) BTPs, so it's good that the Bund has acted as that European risk-off instrument," said Johnathan Owen, a portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management. 4) DID YOU FORGET SHORT-DATED BONDS?
总体而言，主要经济体的高债务水平将继续削弱长期国债的避险属性，投资者表示。
Overall, high debt among major economies will continue to hurt long-dated bonds' safe-haven status, investors said.
但短期政府债券能提供一定庇护，因为它们对债务担忧的敏感度较低。
But short-dated government bonds provide some shelter because they are less sensitive to debt worries.
“我们确实喜欢短期国债，”Wren Sterling的首席市场策略师罗里·麦克弗森说。“鉴于对债务和赤字的所有担忧，我们一直没有购买长期国债。”
5) 黄金依然闪耀 黄金作为另一种传统避险资产，经历了一段波动的行情。
"We really like short-dated bonds," said Rory McPherson, chief market strategist at Wren Sterling. "Because of all the concerns over debts and deficits, we haven't been buying longer-dated bonds." 5) GOLD KEEPS ITS SPARKLE Gold, another traditional safe haven, has had a bumpy ride.
在1月份达到每金衡盎司5,595美元的历史高点后，随着伊朗战争爆发，投资者因其他地方的损失而转向贵金属，金价随之下跌。
After hitting record highs at $5,595 per troy ounce in January, it fell after the Iran war started as investors tapped the precious metal, given losses elsewhere.
8月，随着通胀担忧重燃以及市场对美联储未能充分遏制物价压力的担忧回升，金价再次上涨。目前金价徘徊在每金衡盎司4,175美元左右。
Gold rallied again in August as inflation fears and concern that the Federal Reserve was not doing enough to contain price pressures returned. It is trading around $4,175.
分析师表示，央行购买和避险需求支撑金价维持在4,000美元以上。
Central bank buying and safe-haven demand support prices above $4,000, analysts say.
虽然高利率应限制金价的上行空间，但紧张的地缘政治局势和美国财政担忧应进一步提振这种避险金属的表现。
While high interest rates should limit gold's upside, a tense geopolitical backdrop and US fiscal worries should bolster the safe-haven metal further out.
“从长期来看，金价应再次受益于央行持续强劲的购买以及对美国债务及其日益增加的利息负担的重新担忧，”瑞士银行Julius Baer的分析师卡斯滕·门克（Carsten Menke）表示。
"In the longer term, gold should again benefit from continued strong central-bank buying and renewed concerns over US debt and its rising interest burden," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.