10月16日：兑欧元和日元，美元正迎来一个多月以来的首次周线下跌，因为随着对伊朗冲突升级的担忧消退，投资者的焦点转向了美国利率前景。
Oct 16 : The US dollar was set for its first weekly fall in more than a month against the euro and the yen, as investors turned their focus to the US rate outlook while concerns about an escalation of the Iran conflict faded.
本周人工智能股票暴跌，压力蔓延至信贷市场的局部，因为一直扎堆押注整个人工智能供应链的投资者担心，数据中心运营商可能无法在按时实现盈利的同时偿还债务。
AI stocks have cratered this week and the stress spread to parts of the credit market as investors who have crowded into bets all along the AI supply chain worry data centre operators might not manage to be profitable in time to pay their debts.
分析师指出，周三的市场走势可能预示着货币将如何对外汇市场的大规模人工智能驱动抛售潮作出反应：由于投资者转向对美联储政策路径更为鸽派的看法，美元不降反跌，未能吸引避险需求。
Analysts noted that Wednesday's market moves may provide a preview of how currencies would react to a major AI-driven selloff, with the dollar falling instead of attracting safe-haven demand as investors shift towards a more dovish view of the Federal Reserve policy path.
瑞士法郎再次有望成为最大受益者，这要归功于其避险地位，以及市场预期即使在低利率环境下，瑞士也不太可能将政策利率降至当前零水平以下。瑞郎兑美元势将实现0.61%的周线涨幅。
The Swiss franc again looks set to be the biggest beneficiary, thanks to its safe-haven status and expectations that, even in a lower-rates environment, Switzerland is unlikely to cut policy rates below the current zero level. It was set for a 0.61 per cent weekly rise versus the dollar.
衡量美元兑六种主要货币汇率的美元指数下跌0.25%至101.77，势将录得0.45%的周线跌幅。在该周的五个交易日中，美元在其中两个交易日上涨（包括周三），当时高于预期的通胀数据带来的提振作用，抵消了科技股抛售带来的拖累。
The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six major peers, fell 0.25 per cent to 101.77 and was set for a 0.45 per cent weekly decline. It rose in two of the week's five sessions, including on Wednesday, as the boost from hotter-than-expected inflation data more than offset the drag from a sell-off in tech stocks.
标普500指数周四收高，从早盘的跌势中反弹，此前担忧人工智能股票的投资者转向了医疗健康股和消费股。
The S&P 500 ended higher on Thursday, springing back from early losses as investors concerned about AI stocks shifted into healthcare and consumer stocks.
麦格纳国际集团全球外汇与利率策略师蒂埃里·维兹曼（Thierry Wizman）表示，周三的“行情准确揭示了未来几个月以及2027年可能威胁美元并拉低美收益率的因素：人工智能投资前景的减弱”。
Wednesday’s “action revealed exactly what could threaten the US dollar and bring US yields lower in the next few months and in 2027: a reduction in the outlook for AI investment,” Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said.
他补充道：“这是因为在其他条件不变的情况下，这会减少债券供应并损害美国经济增长。”
“That's because it would reduce bond supply and impair US growth, all else equal,” he added.
聚焦美国利率：尽管通胀数据居高不下，但由于美联储官员的谨慎言论缓和了10月份加息的预期，美国国债收益率近期在本周早些时候有所回落。
US RATES IN FOCUS US Treasury yields recently dropped earlier this week despite hot inflation readings as cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials tempered October hike expectations.
根据芝商所的美联储观察工具，市场预计美联储在本月晚些时候维持利率不变的概率为87%。
Markets assign an 87 per cent probability to the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged later this month, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
投资者预计美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将避免中东或乌克兰局势升级，因为更广泛的冲突可能会在中期选举前损害他的声望、助长通胀并可能伤害经济。
Investors expect US President Donald Trump to steer clear of any escalation in the Middle East or Ukraine, as a broader conflict could hurt his standing ahead of the midterm elections fuelling inflation and possibly hurting the economy.
欧元上涨0.14%至1.1235美元，此前在周四攀升0.56%，创下两个月来最大单日涨幅。欧元正朝着0.39%的周线涨幅迈进。
The euro was up 0.14 per cent to $1.1235 after climbing 0.56 per cent on Thursday in its biggest daily rise in two months. It was on track for a 0.39 per cent weekly gain.
荷兰国际集团外汇策略师克里斯·特纳（Chris Turner）表示：“除非人工智能股票和风险资产总体上再次大幅下跌，否则预计美元将在近期高点附近巩固。”
"Barring another big leg down in AI stocks and risk assets in general, expect the dollar to consolidate near recent highs," said Chris Turner, forex strategist at ING.
他补充道：“只有当短期利率跌破现有水平时，美元才准备下跌。而我们目前还没到那一步。”
"It is only when short end rates break lower that the dollar is ready to drop. And we are not there yet," he added.
在经历了因伊朗冲突支撑美元而导致的连续四周下跌后，日元正朝着0.28%的周线涨幅迈进。日元最新上涨0.05%至157.89。
The yen was on track for a 0.28 per cent weekly rise after dropping for four consecutive weeks as the Iran conflict supported the greenback. It was last up 0.05 per cent at 157.89.
油价上涨往往会支撑美元，同时对欧元和日元等能源进口国的货币构成压力。
Higher oil prices tend to support the dollar while weighing on energy-importing currencies such as the euro and yen.
日本央行一次令人失望的政策会议后，日元在9月中旬暴跌，但此后由于日本当局的货币收紧言论支撑了日元，日元每周下跌约0.30%。
The Japanese currency tumbled in mid-September after a disappointing Bank of Japan policy meeting, but subsequently fell by around 0.30 per cent a week as monetary tightening rhetoric by Japan's authorities supported the yen.
日本央行行长植田和男周五表示，日本央行将继续根据经济和金融形势的发展提高政策利率。
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that the BoJ would continue to raise policy rates in line with economic and financial developments.
澳大利亚元上涨0.55%至0.6959美元，但在本周兑美元势将下跌0.3%方面却是一个特例，此前周四发布的表现疲软得出人意料的就业报告促使市场削减了对再次加息的预期。
The Australian dollar rose 0.55 per cent to $0.6959 but was an outlier in heading for a fall of 0.3 per cent on the dollar this week, after a surprisingly soft jobs report on Thursday had markets paring back expectations for another rise in interest rates.