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AI忧虑引发避险潮,日元走强Yen shines as AI jitters spur safe-haven rush

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这张2026年10月20日拍摄的插图中展示了日本1万日元和1000日元纸币。路透社/金京勋/插图Japanese 10,000 yen and 1,000 yen banknotes are displayed in this illustration taken October 20, 2026. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/Illustration

日元周五升至一个多月来的最强水平,受避险资金流入提振,因新一轮风险厌恶情绪也令美债收益率大幅走低,推动美元跌至近三周低点。

The Japanese yen hit its strongest level in more than a month on Friday, buoyed by safe-haven flows due to a fresh bout of risk aversion that also sent US Treasury yields sharply lower, pushing the dollar to a nearly three-week trough.

货币市场的走势源于对人工智能支出热潮的疑虑,即便布伦特原油期货维持在每桶110美元上方,显示对经济增长的担忧盖过了通胀忧虑。

The moves in the currency markets were driven by doubts over the AI spending boom even as Brent crude futures stay above $110 per barrel, suggesting concerns over economic growth outweighed inflation worries.

日元周五上涨0.3%,报156.28日元兑1美元,领涨主要货币。本周料将上涨1%,为自9月初以来最强单周涨幅。

The yen strengthened 0.3% on Friday to 156.28 per dollar, leading gains among major currencies. It was set for a 1% gain for the week, its strongest weekly rise since early September.

衡量美元兑一篮子货币汇率的美元指数报101.52,周四曾触及本月初以来最低的101.44。

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was at 101.52, after touching its lowest level since the beginning of the month at 101.44 on Thursday.

美国10年期国债收益率徘徊在一个月低点附近的4.953%,周四因股市因对人工智能热潮可持续性的重燃担忧而抛售,收益率大跌,增强了主权债务的避险吸引力。

US 10-year Treasury yields hovered near a one-month low at 4.953%, after tumbling on Thursday when equities sold off on renewed concerns about the sustainability of the AI boom, burnishing the safe-haven appeal of sovereign debt.

“收益率能否维持在5%以下是另一个问题,”荷兰国际集团(ING)分析师称,并补充说,鉴于通胀、财政赤字和人工智能趋势,他们仍预期10年期收益率最终会反弹回5%以上。

"Whether yields stay below 5% is another question," said ING analysts said, adding they still expect the 10-year yield to snap back above 5% eventually, given inflation, fiscal deficit and AI trends.

“风险厌恶环境减轻了美联储下周加息的压力。但即便如此,我们也不会在此刻大举买入久期债券,至少暂时不会,”分析师称。

"The risk-off environment takes pressure off the Fed to hike next week. But even given that, we'd not be loading up on duration here, at least not just yet," the analysts said.

布伦特期货升破每桶114美元,延续前一交易日4%的涨幅,此前也门胡塞武装袭击沙特阿拉伯引发了对该地区能源供应进一步中断的担忧。

Brent futures pushed above $114 per barrel, extending a 4% climb from the previous session after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns of further disruption to energy supplies from the region.

尽管避险需求正在增强,但受益资产因风险类型而异,华侨银行(OCBC)分析师称。

While demand for safety is intensifying, the beneficiaries differ depending on the risk, OCBC analysts said.

AI引发的担忧利好日元,中东紧张局势推高油价,从而支撑加元和挪威克朗,而法国财政压力则利好瑞士法郎,他们表示,对于美元而言,AI已成为一个日益双向的宏观风险。

AI jitters favour the yen, Middle East tensions support the Canadian dollar and Norwegian crown due to rising oil prices, while French fiscal stress benefits the Swiss franc, they said, adding that for the US dollar, AI had become an increasingly two-way macro risk.

日元周四录得近一个月来最大单日涨幅,此前日本央行下周将召开货币政策会议。

The Japanese yen posted its strongest daily gain in almost a month on Thursday, ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting next week.

周五公布的数据显示,日本9月核心消费者物价指数(CPI)同比涨幅超出央行2%的目标,这是九个月来首次,显示物价压力正在扩散,增强了近期加息的理由。路透社调查的大多数经济学家预期,日本央行下周五将维持利率不变,随后在12月的下一次会议上加息25个基点。

Data on Friday showed, Japan's annual core consumer inflation exceeded the central bank's 2% target in September for the first time in nine months, a sign of broadening price pressure that bolsters the case for a near-term interest rate hike. The majority of economists polled by Reuters except a hold on Friday of next week, followed by a quarter-point hike at the following meeting in December.

加元兑美元升破1.40关口,上涨0.1%至一个月高位。瑞士法郎兑美元持稳于0.8199,接近一个月高位。

The Canadian dollar firmed past C$1.40 against the greenback, up 0.1% to its strongest level in a month. The Swiss franc was steady at 0.8199 per dollar, near its firmest level in a month.

中国离岸人民币兑美元基本持平于6.6715,处于四年多来最强水平。欧元兑美元基本持平于1.122美元。

China's offshore yuan was little changed at 6.6715 per dollar, its strongest level in more than four years. The Euro was largely flat at $1.122.

对法国应对巨额债务能力的担忧冲击法国国债,并引发对其他高负债欧元区国家的担忧,拖累欧元。欧洲央行预计下周将基准利率维持在2.5%不变。

Worries about France's ability to tackle its huge debt burden have hurt French government bonds and raised concern about other heavily indebted euro-area countries, weighing on the euro. The European Central Bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate at 2.5% next week.

澳元兑美元持稳于0.7016美元,纽元兑美元上涨0.1%至0.5687美元。

The Australian dollar held steady at $0.7016, while the Kiwi dollar edged up 0.1% to $0.5687.

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