科技股上周遭遇重挫后的反弹似乎已失去动力，原因是市场对数据中心开发商的融资问题以及投资者对首次公开募股（IPO）的胃口日益不安（今天韩国就有一桩大型IPO惨淡收场）。自然，今天下午SpaceX的季度业绩报告将吸引大量关注。关注我们的实时市场数据与报道。投资狂热如今的终结方式已不同于以往。
The tech stock rebound from last week’s washout appears to have lost momentum as jitters rise about funding for data-center developers and investor appetite for initial public offerings (a big one flopped today in Korea). Naturally lots of attention will be focused on SpaceX’s quarterly results report this afternoon. Follow our live markets data and coverage. Investment manias don’t end the way they used to.
历史上的共同脉络是：某种惊人的新技术吸引了大量资本。最终，这种新事物被建设得太多，以至于供过于求。
The common historical thread is that some amazing new technology attracts lots of capital. Eventually so much of the new thing gets built that supply outstrips demand.
随后，这种神奇技术的价格暴跌，建造它的公司的股价也随之暴跌。铁路就是一个经典例子——铁路在19世纪如此具有革命性，以至于城市之间修建了多条线路。
Then the price of the wonder tech crashes, along with the shares of companies building it. Railroads, which were so revolutionary that multiple routes were built between cities in the 19th century, are the classic example.
如今世界运转得更快。当惊人的突破带来高估值时，公司会争相大量发行股票，以巩固主导地位。与此同时，早早入场的新晋百万富翁和亿万富翁则急于套现。这股股票供给可能在新技术本身出现过剩之前就率先戳破泡沫。
The world moves faster now. When amazing breakthroughs lead to high valuations, companies rush to sell lots of shares so they can cement a dominant position. Meanwhile, freshly minted millionaires and billionaires who got in early rush to cash out. That supply of stock can pop the bubble before a glut of the new thing itself necessarily does.
资产管理公司GMO的本·因克和约翰·皮斯在《AI泡沫破裂的催化剂》一文中写道，英伟达芯片或用于为AI数据中心供电的燃气轮机价格高企，或许能让我们感到宽慰。但即使股价不再上涨，繁荣的基石仍可能维持高价。支撑互联网时代建设的光纤电缆，在股价崩盘后仍在一段时间内是抢手货。
Asset manager GMO’s Ben Inker and John Pease write in “A Catalyst for the AI Bubble Break” that we might take comfort in high prices of Nvidia chips or gas turbines used to power AI data centers. But a boom’s building blocks can stay expensive even after stock prices don’t. Fiber optic cable that enabled the dot-com build-out was still a hot commodity for a while after stock prices cratered.
由于投资者倾向于这样对待大量新股供给，GMO的文章计算得出，在其他条件不变的情况下，新股供给每增加1%，往往会在接下来一年里使整体市场市值缩水4%。随着6月IPO后的锁定期到期，仅SpaceX一家到2027年6月就可能使美国股票供给增加约1%。Anthropic和OpenAI预计将带来更多增量。
Because of the way that investors tend to treat a big supply of new stock, GMO’s paper calculates that each 1% increase has tended to cut the overall market’s value by 4% during the next year, all else being equal. As lockup periods expire following its June offering, SpaceX alone could add around 1% to U.S. equity supply by June 2027. Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to tack on a lot more.
在其他条件不变的情况下，估值偏高时情况就不同了。标普500的周期调整市盈率距离科技泡沫时期的纪录不远，因此平时可能只有20%的抛售，这一次可能会像那个时期一样，股市下跌一半。
And all else isn’t equal when valuations are elevated. The S&P 500’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings ratio isn’t far from its tech bubble record, so what might be a 20% selloff in stocks could be more like that episode, when stocks dropped by half.
“没有什么能告诉我们，类似的事件不会在今天的市场上重演，”因克和皮斯写道。
“Nothing tells us a similar event is off the table for today’s market,” write Inker and Pease.
过去20年，股票供应一直是股市的顺风因素。公司回购的股票多于发行的股票，或者公司之间相互收购。许多大型公司保持私有状态。资产管理公司百达估计，自2005年以来，美国公开股票的供应量每年减少约1%，除了金融危机前后的一段短暂激增。
The supply equation has been a tailwind for stocks in the past 20 years. Companies bought back more shares than issued, or they bought one another. Many large ones stayed private. Asset manager Pictet estimates that U.S. public equity supply has dropped by about 1% a year since 2005, except for a brief spurt around the financial crisis.
除了大型IPO带来的压力外，将资金投入数据中心的大型云服务商也已停止回购。Meta在2021年至去年第三季度间回购了近1500亿美元的股票，但此后没有再回购。Alphabet和甲骨文各自发行了数百亿美元的新股。
Adding to the pressure from big IPOs, hyperscalers plowing money into data centers have hit the brakes on buybacks. Meta repurchased nearly $150 billion of stock between 2021 and the third quarter of last year, but nothing since then. Alphabet and Oracle each sold tens of billions in new stock.
供需关系始终重要，但投资者需要关注如今最容易制造的资产：新股。
Supply and demand will always matter, but investors need to focus on the asset that’s easiest to manufacture these days: new shares.
Elice：这家韩国数据中心初创公司的股票在上市首日暴跌超过30%，表明投资者对人工智能股票重新持谨慎态度。Elice通过IPO筹集了相当于1.51亿美元的资金。
Elice: Shares in the South Korean data-center startup plummeted over 30% on their trading debut, signaling renewed investor caution toward artificial-intelligence stocks. Elice had raised the equivalent of $151 million from its IPO.
SK海力士：这家韩国芯片制造商的股票在首尔下跌超过4%，是亚洲科技股普遍遭抛售的一部分。其在美国上市的ADR在盘前交易中也下跌。
SK Hynix: The South Korean chip maker’s stock fell over 4% in Seoul, as part of a broader tech selloff in Asia. Its U.S.-listed ADRs also fell premarket.
ABB：这家瑞士工程集团的股价下跌5%，此前该公司表示将支付约5亿美元，收购日本三菱电机新剥离出的低压配电业务的控股权。
ABB: Shares in the Swiss engineering group slid 5% after it said it was paying about half a billion dollars for a controlling stake in a newly carved out low-voltage-power distribution business of Japan’s Mitsubishi Electric.
通用汽车和GE航空航天预计将在开盘前公布业绩。SpaceX、Netflix和联合航空的业绩预计将在收盘后公布。
General Motors and GE Aerospace are due to report results before markets open. Earnings from SpaceX, Netflix, and United Airlines are due after the close.
从某些角度看，对于规模较小、反应更灵敏的防务公司而言，现在或许是最好的时代。但从它们的股价表现来看，你根本看不出这一点。
In some ways, there’s never been a better time to be a smaller, nimbler defense company. You wouldn’t know that from their stock prices.
1803年的今天，美国参议院批准了路易斯安那购地案，这是有史以来最划算的土地交易之一。
On this day in 1803, the U.S. Senate ratified the Louisiana Purchase, one of the most profitable land deals ever.
《华尔街日报》 | 买方指南：为您的双脚挑选这些专家甄选的女士拖鞋。
WSJ | Buy Side: Treat your feet to these expert-vetted women’s slippers.
商业和金融领域长期以来一直深深吸引着我。在撰写这份通讯之前，我曾在《华尔街日报》的“市场聚焦”团队编辑工作十年，撰写过两本投资书籍，并在一家全球投资银行管理过一个股票分析师团队。
Business and finance have fascinated me for a long time. Before writing this newsletter, I edited The Wall Street Journal’s Heard on the Street team for a decade, wrote two investment books and managed a team of stock analysts at a global investment bank.
《早盘市场》通讯为您提供下一个交易日的前瞻准备，提供专家洞察，解读即将推动市场波动的公司和行业。请将您的反馈发送至 markets.am@wsj.com（如果您是在收件箱中阅读此邮件，只需直接点击回复即可）。
The Markets A.M. newsletter prepares you for the trading day ahead, with expert insight into the companies and industries set to move markets. Send your feedback to markets.am@wsj.com (if you’re reading this in your inbox, you can just hit reply).