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伊朗否认濒临崩溃,美国称伊斯兰革命卫队资金告罄Iran denies collapse is close as US claims IRGC running out of money

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2026年10月4日,伊朗志愿妇女在德黑兰伊玛目侯赛因广场的“为伊朗牺牲”(Jan-Fada)军事训练营参加训练[美联社]Volunteer Iranian women attend a training at the Jan-Fada ('Self-Sacrificed for Iran') military training camp, at Imam Hussein square in Tehran, Iran, October 4, 2026 [EPA]

伊朗当局驳斥了伊朗无力支持其地区盟友的说法,但承认美国的制裁和战争给该国带来了财务挑战。

Iranian authorities have rejected claims that Iran is unable to support its regional allies, but acknowledged that the United States’ sanctions and the war have created financial challenges.

美国中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上周声称,军事打击与封锁伊朗南部港口的组合“对该国造成了严重打击”。

US Central Command chief Brad Cooper claimed last week that a combination of military attacks and a naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports “has dealt severe blows” to the country.

这位海军上将表示,美国已阻止至少250亿美元的伊朗原油出口,并帮助冻结了约3.5亿美元的加密货币资产。这意味着伊朗革命卫队(IRGC)现在无法支付士兵薪水,以及面临资金短缺的伊朗关联地区组织。

The admiral said the US had prevented at least $25bn in Iranian crude exports and helped freeze approximately $350m in cryptocurrency assets. This means the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are now unable to pay their soldiers and Iran-linked regional groups suffering from financial shortfalls.

库珀说:“伊朗军队面临的财务压力已变得非常显著,有报道称,该地区各地的伊朗支持的民兵组织正在扣留士兵薪水,以便将资金输送回伊朗革命卫队,而伊朗革命卫队本身也在拖欠士兵薪水。”

“The financial strain on Iran’s military has become so significant that there are reports of Iran-aligned militia groups across the region withholding payments to their soldiers in order to funnel money back to the IRGC, which also is not paying its troops,” Cooper said.

这被描绘为美国在与伊朗的战争中取得的一场胜利,而迄今为止,华盛顿在这场战争中几乎没有取得任何实质性胜利。

This is being portrayed as a victory for the US in its war with Iran, which so far has shown very few tangible victories for Washington.

总部位于美国的情报与地缘政治风险咨询公司Horizon Engage的中东和北非研究主管迈克尔·奈特斯表示,黎巴嫩真主党和也门胡塞武装在过去几年中遭受了财务损失。

Michael Knights, head of MENA research at US-based intelligence and geopolitical risk advisory firm Horizon Engage, said Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen have suffered financially during the past few years.

奈特斯对半岛电视台说:“支撑真主党和胡塞运动的国家经济已严重崩溃,因此它们继续从伊朗获得津贴和实物资助——以燃料产品形式。”

“The national economies feeding the Hezbollah and Houthi movements are badly broken, so they continue to receive stipends and in-kind funding – in fuel products – from Iran,” Knights told Al Jazeera.

2026年9月27日,在贝鲁特南郊举行的纪念黎巴嫩什叶派运动真主党领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉在以色列空袭中身亡两周年的仪式上,真主党支持者高举纳斯鲁拉的画像并挥舞该组织旗帜[法新社]为“抵抗轴心”提供资金数十年来,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队“圣城旅”一直向地区盟友组织提供资金、武器、零部件、训练和制造技术。据联合国专家和美国官员称,这使得那些与美国和以色列对立的伙伴能够本地组装或生产多种武器。

Supporters of Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah hold up portraits of slain leader Hassan Nasrallah as they wave flags of the group during a ceremony held to mark the second anniversary of Nasrallah’s killing in a strike by Israel, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, on September 27, 2026 [AFP] Funding the axis For decades, the IRGC Quds Force has supplied money, weapons, components, training and manufacturing expertise to regional allied groups. It has enabled partners at loggerheads with the US and Israel to assemble or produce a number of weapons locally, according to United Nations experts and US officials.

2026年9月27日,黎巴嫩南部郊区,黎巴嫩真主党支持者举起已故领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉的肖像,挥舞该组织旗帜,参加纪念纳斯鲁拉在以色列空袭中丧命两周年的仪式[法新社]Supporters of Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah hold up portraits of slain leader Hassan Nasrallah as they wave flags of the group during a ceremony held to mark the second anniversary of Nasrallah’s killing in a strike by Israel, in Beirut’s southern suburbs, on September 27, 2026 [AFP]

“抵抗轴心”各组织还依靠包括石油出口在内的商业活动,以及捐款和当地资源来为其行动提供资金。一些伊拉克派系已被纳入官方安全部队,并通过“人民动员力量”获得政府拨款。

The axis groups also draw on businesses, including oil exports, as well as donations and local resources to fund their operations. Some Iraqi factions have been integrated into the official security forces and receive government funding through the Popular Mobilisation Forces.

美国财政部声称,伊拉克境内的盟友商业网络正在销售伊朗商品,并通过中间商和钱庄分配收益。

Allied commercial networks in Iraq are selling Iranian commodities and distributing proceeds through intermediaries and exchange houses, the US Department of the Treasury has claimed.

奈茨表示,这使他们的财务状况优于真主党和胡塞武装这些“更穷的表亲”,据称近年来还有一些资金从伊拉克流向伊朗。

This has put them in a better financial position than their “poorer cousins” in Hezbollah and the Houthis, Knights said, with some money allegedly flowing from Iraq towards Iran in recent years.

他对半岛电视台说:“一些伊拉克民兵和政府公务员确实被拖欠工资,与此同时,伊拉克民兵却在向海外输送资金,以帮助伊朗、胡塞武装和黎巴嫩真主党。”

“Some Iraqi militiamen and government civil servants are indeed paid late at the same time that Iraqi militias send funding overseas to help Iran, the Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah,” he told Al Jazeera.

美国财政部9月指称,邻国伊拉克境内一个受德黑兰支持的重要什叶派穆斯林武装组织“真主党旅”挪用伊拉克资源来支持伊朗。

The US Treasury alleged in September that Kataib Hezbollah a prominent Tehran-backed Shia Muslim armed group in neighbouring Iraq, siphoned Iraqi resources to support Iran.

美国财政部还描述了“圣城旅”早前向真主党提供的大规模资金转移,称资金呈双向流动。

The Treasury also described substantial earlier transfers from the Quds Force to Hezbollah, depicting flows in both directions.

路透社本月早些时候的一篇报道引述匿名消息人士的话称,真主党9月从伊朗获得了2亿美元。美国国务院当时驳斥了该报道,称真主党“试图通过编造伊朗资金涌入的假新闻来挽回面目”。

A report by the Reuters news agency earlier this month cited unnamed sources as saying Hezbollah received $200m from Iran in September The US State Department rejected the report at the time, saying Hezbollah was “trying to save face with fake stories about cash influxes from Iran”.

人们在2026年9月30日于伊拉克巴格达举行的人民动员部队集会上,在舞台上合影留念,庆祝美军在伊拉克的军事存在结束。伊朗称没有迫在眉睫的“崩溃”近年来,由于战争、国内管理不善和制裁,伊朗经济遭受了一次又一次打击。这导致9000万伊朗人面临失控的通货膨胀、低薪工作、本币贬值以及与全球社会的隔绝。

People pose for photos on a stage during a Popular Mobilisation Forces rally celebrating the end of the US military presence in Iraq on September 30, 2026 in Baghdad, Iraq Iran says no ‘collapse’ imminent Iran’s economy has taken hit after hit in recent years due to war, domestic mismanagement and sanctions This has led to runaway inflation, low-paying jobs, a depreciating national currency and isolation from the global community for 90 million Iranians.

2026年9月30日,伊拉克巴格达,民众在人民动员组织庆祝美军撤出伊拉克的集会舞台上合影留念[盖蒂图片社/盖·彼得森]People pose for photos on a stage during a Popular Mobilisation Forces rally celebrating the end of the US military presence in Iraq on September 30, 2026 in Baghdad, Iraq [Guy Peterson/Getty Images]

局势似乎没有好转的迹象,世界银行本月早些时候报告称,2026-27财年经济预计将萎缩7.7%。

There appears to be little sign of the situation improving, with the World Bank reporting earlier this month a projected 7.7 percent contraction of the economy in the fiscal year 2026-27.

当局强调,这并不影响他们的决心。他们还对美国财政部的评估提出了质疑,该评估认为经济压力可能导致数月内失去控制。“尽管面临所有这些压力,伊朗经济表现出了非常良好的韧性,伊朗经济即将崩溃的说法只不过是一种幻觉,”央行行长阿卜杜尔纳塞尔·赫马蒂本月早些时候表示。

The authorities emphasise that does not affect their resolve. They have also challenged US Treasury assessments that economic pressure could result in losing control within months“Despite all these pressures, the Iranian economy has demonstrated very good resilience, and the claim that Iran’s economy is collapsing is nothing more than an illusion,” Central Bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati said earlier this month.

财政问题总统马苏德·佩泽什基扬周日承认,军事袭击和海上封锁给该国造成了重大问题。但他表示,他的政府正依靠国内能力来抵御压力。

Financial problems President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged on Sunday that military attacks and the maritime blockade had created substantial problems for the country. But he said his government was relying on domestic capacities to withstand the pressure.

他声称,消费管理现在已经取消了汽油进口的需求,否则这将花费120亿美元,如果美国压力允许进口的话。总统承诺,将最近提高的燃油价格带来的收入,通过适度增加电子食品券的方式返还给家庭。

He claimed consumption management had now removed the need for petrol imports that would otherwise cost $12bn, if US pressure allowed imports at all. The president promised to return revenues from recently increased fuel prices to households by modestly increasing their electronic food vouchers.

奈茨表示,伊朗当局“无论伊朗经济处于何种状态,都陷入了与美国政府的激进升级循环中”。

Knights said the Iranian authorities were “stuck in an aggressive cycle of escalation with the US government no matter what state Iran’s economy is in”.

“特朗普赌注是,变得更贫穷会使伊朗政权更加灵活,但这从来不是一个好的赌注,”他说。

“Trump is betting that being poorer will make Iran’s regime more flexible, but that has never been a good bet,” he said.

华盛顿特区国际政策中心高级研究员内加尔·莫塔扎维表示,她预计尽管面临财务压力,德黑兰将继续优先考虑其地区盟友组织。

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based Center for International Policy, said she expected Tehran to continue prioritising its regional allied groups despite the financial strains involved.

“经济压力当然在限制伊朗的军事资源,但这并不意味着它会从根本上改变伊朗革命卫队的战略计算,或迫使德黑兰投降,”她对半岛电视台表示。

“Economic pressure is certainly constraining Iran’s military resources, but that does not mean it will fundamentally change the IRGC’s strategic calculations or force Tehran to surrender,” she told Al Jazeera.

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