“巴黎在燃烧吗？”这部1960年代电影的片名，源自阿道夫·希特勒1944年8月发给驻巴黎德军指挥官的一条电报。他下令：如果守不住巴黎，就让它化为灰烬。
"Is Paris Burning?" The title of that 1960s movie came from a message Adolf Hitler sent to his commanding general in Paris in August 1944. He wanted Paris to burn if he couldn’t keep it.
如今，这声号令不再来自元首地堡，而是来自屋内。纵火焚烧巴黎及其他法国城市的，不是纳粹，而是法国人——以及准法国人。
Today, the call isn’t coming from the Führerbunker; it’s from inside the house. It’s not Nazis, but the French — and quasi-French — burning Paris and other French cities.
巴黎卢浮宫，蒙娜丽莎的安身之所，周一因“学生社会运动”而关闭。这只是用来形容正吞噬法国城市的彻底混乱的一种说法。
The Louvre museum in Paris, home to the Mona Lisa, closed Monday "due to a student social movement." That’s one way to describe the utter chaos overtaking French cities.
在利摩日，暴徒纵火焚烧市政厅，毁掉了其标志性塔楼。在马赛，他们闯入市政厅并破坏内部设施。在巴黎，网上流传的一段视频显示，年轻暴徒高喊“真主发誓！杀了她！”和“肮脏的婊子！”[笔者译]追赶一名女警察并将其推倒在地——与此同时，他们在街头毁坏财物、袭击路人。
In Limoges, rioters set fire to the town hall, destroying its iconic tower. In Marseille, they broke into city hall and vandalized the interior. In Paris, a video circulating online appeared to show young thugs shouting, "Wallah! Kill her!" and "Dirty whore!" [my translation] at a policewoman they chased and threw to the ground — all while trashing property and assaulting people on the streets.
法国发生的事，既熟悉又陌生。熟悉的是，大规模抗议是法国的顽疾。每隔几年，当无能政府试图通过改革法国慷慨得毁灭性的公共福利来平衡账目时，抗议就会爆发。陌生的是，这次加入了外部势力，暴力规模也升级了。
What’s happening in France is both familiar and new. It’s familiar in that mass protests are endemic to France. They happen every few years when a feckless government tries to balance the books by reforming France’s ruinously generous public benefits. What’s new is the addition of foreign influence and the scale of the violence.
发起这轮抗议的高中生对班级人数过多、校舍破败、升学机会不足感到愤怒。加入他们的退休人员称国家养老金不够生活。所有人都抱怨生活成本高企。他们都想要更多国家开支来解决困境。
The high-schoolers who kicked off this round of protests are angry about class sizes, dilapidated schools, and access to college. Retirees who joined them say state pensions aren’t enough to live on. Everyone complains about the high cost of living. They all want more state spending to cure their ills.
法国抗议常演变成暴力。焚烧汽车、破坏财物、抢劫掠夺屡见不鲜。这次火上浇油的是“破坏分子”、抢劫者和暴力恶棍，他们的行径超过了以往被默许容忍的界限。许多人似乎有移民背景，有些人挥舞巴勒斯坦旗帜，或他们或其父母原籍北非国家的旗帜。
French protests often turn violent. Torched cars, vandalized property, and looting are common. What has added fuel to the fire this time is the "Casseurs" (breakers), looters, and violent thugs going beyond what was tacitly tolerated in the past. Many seem to be of migrant background, and some carry Palestinian flags or those of the North African countries they or their parents came from.
法国媒体的视频显示，街道两旁的商店遭到洗劫。马赛的帕拉迪街有许多高端珠宝和时装店，也有许多夫妻店，店主们工作时间长、利润薄。如今，这些店铺有几十家已成了被洗劫一空的空壳。原本用于防止窗户被砸、店铺被盗的金属卷帘门，被撕毁或砸烂。
Videos in French media showed streets of looted stores. Rue Paradis in Marseille has many high-end jewelry and fashion stores, but also many mom-and-pop shops whose owners work long hours for little profit. Dozens of these are now looted shells. Their metal shutters — designed to prevent windows from being broken and stores from being burglarized — lie torn off or broken.
法国许多大城市由社会党人执政。马赛市长贝努瓦·帕扬指责法国政府未能保护市政厅——他的办公室就在那里——以及当地商店。他要求巴黎方面赔偿所有损失。法国纳税人再次为此买单。
Many of France’s major cities are run by socialists. Marseille’s mayor, Benoit Payan, blames the French government for failing to protect city hall — where his own office is — and local stores. He wants Paris to pay for all the damage. Once again, the French taxpayer is on the hook.
这场危机如何收场？绝非朝夕之功。政治左派组织严密、斗志高昂、资金充足——其中包括外国资金。我们很可能会看到任期将尽的总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙承诺增加开支，他正处于两个任期的最后一年，无法再次竞选。他在周日发表讲话谴责暴力，但在骚乱发生过程中却明显缺席。周二，他按原定行程飞往海湾地区。
How does this end? Not quickly. The political left is well organized, galvanized, and funded — including with foreign money. We are likely to see more promises of increased spending from lame-duck President Emmanuel Macron, now in the last year of his two terms and unable to run again. He gave a speech condemning the violence on Sunday, but he’s been notably absent as it has unfolded. On Tuesday he stuck with his schedule and flew to the Gulf region.
法国将于明年四月举行总统大选。两位主要竞争者是右翼国民联盟（NR）的玛丽娜·勒庞和左翼“不屈的法兰西”（LFI）的让-吕克·梅朗雄。两人中，勒庞承诺减少移民、限制给予移民的福利待遇。梅朗雄欢迎大规模移民，反对削减任何福利。勒庞反对非法移民，但并未以削减膨胀的福利开支作为竞选主张。
France has presidential elections next April. Two leading contenders are Marine Le Pen of the right-wing National Rally (NR) and Jean-Luc Melenchon of the left-wing France Unbowed (LFI). Of the two, Le Pen promises to lower migration and limit welfare payments to migrants. Melenchon welcomes mass migration and opposes any reduction in benefits. Le Pen opposes illegal migration, but she hasn’t campaigned on reducing the bloated benefits bill.
但法国的财政已入不敷出。50年来从未实现预算平衡，今年赤字超过5%。经济增长低于1%。柴油价格约为每加仑10美元。国家债务占GDP的120%，债券市场开始感到不安。
But France’s checkbook is tapped out. It hasn’t balanced a budget in 50 years, and this year’s deficit is over 5%. Economic growth is under 1%. Diesel costs about $10 a gallon. National debt is 120% of GDP, and the bond market is getting nervous.
与其他发达国家一样，法国的生育率低于更替水平，该国接纳了数百万来自其前殖民地的移民。总体而言，这些新来者及其子女的就业率低于法国本地人，但他们享受相同的社会服务。无论巴黎的总统多么精明，这些数字都行不通。
Like other developed countries, France’s fertility rate is below replacement, and the country has allowed in millions of immigrants from its former colonies. On balance, these new arrivals and their children have a lower employment rate than native French, but they get the same social services. Those numbers don’t work, no matter how smart the president in Paris.
法国不仅破产了，而且人手不足，无法同时应对多起骚乱。法国国家警察负责城市治安，而宪兵队负责农村地区的执法。两者均由法国中央政府拨款。城镇设有市政警察，但他们既未配备装备也未接受过执法训练，更不用说防暴管控了。法国设有专门的防暴部队，但数量有限。法国军队大概是欧洲最强的，但不参与内部行动。
Not only is France broke, but it has too few bodies to handle multiple riots at once. France’s national police handle the cities, while the gendarmes enforce the law in the countryside. Both are funded centrally by the French state. Towns have municipal police, but they aren’t equipped or trained for law enforcement, let alone riot control. France has specialized riot-control units, but only so many. The French military is probably Europe’s best, but it is not used for internal operations.
与法国一样，我们的一些主要城市，如纽约和西雅图，现在由自称的社会主义者执政。可以说，波士顿和洛杉矶的政府也与美国民主社会主义者组织的价值观紧密一致。未来将有更多城市如此。
Like France, some of our major cities, New York and Seattle, are now run by avowed socialists. Arguably, administrations in Boston and Los Angeles are also closely aligned with DSA values. And more cities will be in the future.
美国民主社会主义者组织主张开放边境、医疗国有化、削减执法力度和增税。如果我们不引以为戒，法国的现状可能就是我们的未来。
The DSA wants open borders, nationalized health care, curtailed law enforcement, and higher taxes. If we don’t take heed, France’s present could be our future.