Flavio Bolsonaro secured an against-the-odds triumph on Sunday night Credit AP/Eraldo Peres Adrian Blomfield Senior Foreign Correspondent, Brasília Show biography Adrian covers defence, politics and conflict across the globe. He has previously worked from Nairobi, Baghdad, Moscow and Jerusalem 5:41am BST The House of Bolsonaro, discounted by the pollsters and even many on the Brazilian Right, appears poised to sweep back to power in South America’s largest country.

On an evening that confounded the pundits and even many on their own side, the populist Right edged out the populist Left to move to within a whisker of seizing back the presidency it lost four years ago.

There will be rejoicing in the White House as Flávio Bolsonaro, the anointed heir of his jailed father, Jair secured an against-the-odds triumph in the first round of Brazil’s general election on Sunday. Although he fell short of the majority needed to avoid a second round, it will take something extraordinary to stop him now – though in a country as scandal-ridden as Brazil, nothing is impossible.

Bolsonaro supporters celebrating the result in Porto Alegre, Brazil, on Sunday night Getty Images/Silvio Avila It was against a backdrop of scandal that the election took place, although many had assumed it would hurt Mr Bolsonaro, who was directly implicated, more than his rival, the incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was not.

Yet so sprawling was the Banco Master saga, a banking and influence-peddling scandal that implicated much of Brazil’s establishment regardless of political persuasion, that it seemed to hurt Lula, as he is known, more.

Brazilians wanted change and decided that an 80-year-old president seeking a fourth term was not it. Lula, who had been expected to win the first round and struggle in the second, secured 45 per cent of the vote, against Mr Bolsonaro’s 47 per cent.

Lula, whose political retirement may now beckon, has been the Colossus of Latin American politics for the past quarter of a century. But it turns out that not even he seems strong enough to stand against the Trump-backed “blue wave” sweeping the region.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will face Bolsonaro in the run-offs Reuters/Amanda Perobelli Donald Trump has cast himself as Latin America’s kingmaker, and there is merit to his claim. Since he returned to the White House in January last year, Right-wing candidates who cast themselves in his mould have won the past seven elections in the region.

Mr Bolsonaro has every prospect of becoming the eighth following the election’s second round in three weeks’ time. Quite what that means for Brazil no one quite knows. Bolsonaro may well be the country’s next president, but the bigger question is whether he or his jailed father will hold sway for the next four years.

Mr Bolsonaro’s main policy, repeatedly stated on the campaign trail, is to pardon his more popular and charismatic father, who was jailed for 27 years in September 2025 for plotting a coup after losing his re-election attempt in 2022. The older Bolsonaro, now under house arrest, anointed his son from behind bars in December. But he probably did so to prevent control of the hard Right slipping out of the family’s hands rather than in expectation of victory.

That potentially reduces the younger Bolsonaro to a mere placeholder. With power nearly in his grasp, the role of president in name only may not be a prospect he relishes.

Bolsonaro has every prospect of becoming president following the election’s second round Reuters/Tita Barros“If he manages to pull his father out of jail, then the president of Brazil will cease to be Flávio Bolsonaro, it will automatically be Jair Bolsonaro” says Prof Feliciano Guimarães of the University of São Paulo.

It is not inconceivable, Prof Guimarães adds, that the younger Bolsonaro may give the appearance of trying to free his father more vigorously than he actually is. “It’s a family tragedy that we’ve seen in Shakespeare many times.”Such a clash would not entirely be out of character for the Bolsonaro family. On the campaign trail, he argued with his stepmother Michelle – the matriarch of the family – before the two made up.

Jair Bolsonaro was jailed for 27 years last September for plotting a coup after losing his re-election bid in 2022 Mateus Bonomi/AFP via Getty That, though, is for the future. In the meantime, Brazilians await the return of Bolsonarismo with a mixture of anticipation and nervousness.

Flávio sought to widen his reach by stressing his moderate credentials, calling himself “the Bolsonaro who got vaccinated”, unlike his Covid-sceptic father.

Yet his core constituency — the so-called “Beef, Bible and Bullets” base of evangelical Christians, commercial farmers and Brazilians fed up with rampant crime — remains the same. He will almost certainly take a hard line on organised crime, a soft one on environmental protections in the Amazon and a vengeful one against the Supreme Court judges he accuses of persecuting his father.

Defaced presidential election campaign pictures of Bolsonaro and Trump in Sao Paulo Miguel Schincariol A more assertive start to the presidency is also likely, says Thiago Amâncio of Control Risks, a consultancy: “People are expecting something similar to the second Trump administration. They aren’t amateurs any more. They know how things work and they are more prepared to promote their agenda.”The bigger question is how he handles relations with Mr Trump and, just as importantly, with China. The US president did not openly endorse Mr Bolsonaro, but he welcomed him to the White House in May.

By contrast, he has frequently clashed with Lula, imposing sanctions on his allies and punishing tariffs on Brazil’s exports.

In July, his administration attempted to send a delegation to Brazil to investigate the country’s electoral integrity.

Lula had been expected to win the first round and struggle in the second Getty Images/Wagner Meier Lula’s government denied them entry and accused both Washington and Moscow of mounting a multi-pronged campaign to interfere in the election.

The US president will therefore expect submission if Mr Bolsonaro is elected. The Brazilian has already pledged to join the Shield of the Americas Mr Trump’s pan-American military initiative to counter narcotics gangs. He has also pledged to seek a free-trade agreement with Washington and build rare-earths partnerships.

Yet, for all his rhetoric, Mr Bolsonaro knows that China remains Brazil’s biggest trading partner and that, even if he builds strong security ties with Washington, he cannot afford to alienate Beijing. Beyond defence, the US simply cannot compete with China in terms of what it can offer Brazil.

Not only does Beijing offer Brazil more lucrative markets, stronger investment and cheaper technology, it also supports a more influential role for South America’s largest country on the global stage, particularly through the BRICS partnership.

“Our economic relationship with China is Brazil’s economic backbone, not our economic relationship with the United States,” says Prof Guimarães.

“The US will do everything in its power to pull Brazil back into its sphere of influence and that leaves Flávio with a very difficult decision to make. Will he submit as he promised or will he protect Brazil’s autonomy? My prediction is that Brazil and the United States are heading for a collision that is almost impossible to prevent.”