博索纳罗家族及其盟友在全国大选中横扫巴西 |库里蒂巴和里约热内卢|5分钟阅读 巴西一个时代的终结，也可能标志着一个王朝真正确立其统治地位。10月4日，巴西执政的左翼工人党（PT）及其年迈的领导人路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在大选第一轮中惨败。右翼族长若尔·博索纳罗（一名前总统，因企图政变而被软禁）的后裔弗拉维奥·博索纳罗，有望在10月25日的决选中成为世界第四大民主国家的领导人。
The Bolsonaro clan and its allies have swept the country’s general election |CURITIBA and RIO DE JANEIRO|5 min read THE END of an era in Brazil may also mark the moment a dynasty truly established its hold. On October 4th Brazil’s ruling left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) and its ageing leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, were trounced in the first round of the general election. Flávio Bolsonaro, the scion of a right-wing patriarch, Jair (a former president under house arrest for attempting a coup), looks set to become the leader of the world’s fourth-largest democracy in a run-off on October 25th.
这场失败规模巨大。作为现任总统的卢拉，与上次选举相比，在该国5571个市镇中有超过5400个失去了选票。在各州内，乡村地区的损失最大（见图表）。名不副实的自由党（PL）——博索纳罗家族的政党——在参议院的席位数几乎翻了一番，并巩固了其在众议院第一大党的地位。费尔南多·阿达德有时被视为卢拉的接班人，在试图罢免圣保罗州州长的竞选中以26个百分点的差距落选，几乎葬送了他的政治前景。
The defeat was enormous. Lula, as the incumbent is known, lost votes in more than 5,400 of the country’s 5,571 municipalities compared with the last election. Within states, the losses were greatest in the countryside (see chart). The Bolsonaros’ inaptly named Liberal Party (PL) almost doubled its seat tally in the Senate and cemented its status as the largest party in the lower house. Fernando Haddad, who is sometimes touted as Lula’s heir, was beaten by a margin of 26 points in his bid to oust São Paulo’s governor, all but burying his political future.
这种优势使弗拉维奥在决选中处于领先位置。自1985年巴西恢复民主以来，第一轮落败的候选人从未在第二轮获胜。即使弗拉维奥落败，结果对博索纳罗家族来说已经是一场胜利。博索纳罗先生热心的福音派妻子、他的中子和幼子以及他的兄弟都赢得了立法机构的席位。现在，右翼参议员人数已接近弹劾起诉其父的最高法院大法官所需的三分之二多数。
This dominance puts Flávio in pole position to win the run-off. Since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985, no candidate who lost in the first round has gone on to win the second. Even if Flávio were to lose, the outcome is already a triumph for the Bolsonaro clan. Mr Bolsonaro’s zealous evangelical wife, his middle and youngest sons and his brother all won seats in the legislature. There are now nearly enough right-wing senators for the two-thirds majority needed to impeach Supreme Court justices who prosecuted his father.
这次投票与其说是对弗拉维奥的热情，不如说是对现任政府的否决，选举期间选民普遍冷漠。在1.58亿合格选民中，超过3300万人缺席投票，弃权率创1998年以来最高。投票周公布的民调显示，近三分之一的选民不知道该支持谁。在里约热内卢一个高档社区的投票站外，一位24岁的沮丧青年形容这次选举“气氛像葬礼”。“这只是在选举较小的恶，”他的朋友耸耸肩说。
The vote was less a reflection of enthusiasm for Flávio than a repudiation of the current government in an election marked by apathy. Over 33m of 158m eligible voters stayed away, the highest abstention rate since 1998. Polls published in the week of the ballot showed almost a third of voters did not know whom they would back. Outside a polling station in an upscale neighbourhood in Rio de Janeiro, a gloomy 24-year-old described the election as having “a funeral atmosphere”. “It’s about choosing the lesser evil,” shrugged his friend.
工人党在过去24年中执政18年，巴西人对80岁仍渴望第四任期的卢拉感到厌倦。这位来自巴西贫困腹地的前工会领袖，未能与年轻的中产阶级巴西人建立联系，后者倾向于从事零工而非工会工作，并梦想成为企业家。在中下层选民中，弗拉维奥获得54%的选票，而卢拉获得37%。
The PT has been in power for 18 of the past 24 years and Brazilians are tiring of Lula, who at 80 still yearns for a fourth term. A former trade-union leader from Brazil’s poor hinterlands, he has failed to connect to younger, middle-class Brazilians, who tend to prefer gig work to union jobs and dream of being entrepreneurs. Flávio took 54% of votes among lower-middle class voters, against Lula’s 37%.
此外，许多选民不信任工人党的经济政策，并对腐败感到厌倦。卢拉于2018年因腐败入狱，尽管其定罪于2021年被推翻。涉及巴西最大银行欺诈案的肮脏腐败丑闻也助长了反建制情绪。尽管卢拉未直接牵连，但这已损害了他。9月中旬的一项民调发现，选民更可能因该丑闻惩罚卢拉而非弗拉维奥。
Moreover, many voters do not trust the PT on the economy and are fed up over graft. Lula was jailed for corruption in 2018 though his convictions were overturned in 2021. A grubby corruption scandal involving Brazil’s biggest bank fraud also fuelled anti-establishment sentiment. Though Lula was not directly implicated, it has hurt him. A poll in mid-September found that voters were more likely to punish Lula than Flávio for the scandal.
圣保罗自由派智库“自由派”组织的马格诺·卡尔表示，卢拉还失去了那些“感到被工人党背叛”的中间派支持者。“他们在2022年投票给卢拉……以为政府会少花钱，会更多倾听社会其他部分的声音，不会妖魔化批评——但事实并非如此。”他的挥霍政策推高了利率，增加了家庭、企业和政府的债务成本。尽管收入有适度实际增长，失业率创历史新低，但沮丧情绪依然弥漫。
Lula also lost the support of centrists who “felt betrayed by the PT”, says Magno Karl of Livres, a liberal think-tank in São Paulo. “They voted for Lula in 2022…thinking that the government would spend less, would listen more to other parts of society and would not demonise criticism—but it didn’t happen.”His spendthrift policies have pushed up interest rates, raising debt costs for households, businesses and the government. Despondency prevails, despite modest real gains in income and record-low unemployment.
巴西的右转具有大陆性影响。自唐纳德·特朗普重新掌权以来，该地区的七场总统选举全部被志同道合的候选人赢得。如果作为南美洲最后一个大型持 outsider 的巴西落入门罗主义的影响范围，美国可能获得该国庞大稀土资源的优先准入权。鉴于弗拉维奥与史蒂夫·班农及MAGA运动的密切关系，他预计将任命其兄弟爱德华多为外交部长或驻华盛顿大使。
Brazil’s rightward shift has continental implications. Since Donald Trump returned to power, all seven presidential elections in the region have been won by like-minded candidates. If Brazil, the last big holdout in South America, comes under the sway of the Donroe Doctrine, the United States could gain preferential access to the country’s vast trove of rare earths. Flávio is expected to appoint his brother, Eduardo, as either foreign minister or ambassador to Washington, given his close ties with Steve Bannon and the MAGA movement.
即便如此，外交政策上可能仍会有一定程度的连续性。南美洲尚未有任何与MAGA结盟的领导人与中国断绝关系，而中国是南美洲商品的最大买家。巴西不太可能打破这一趋势。尽管其与欧盟的关系可能因森林砍伐问题而紧张，但这不太可能威胁欧盟与南方共同市场（由巴西领导的贸易集团）之间新达成的自由贸易协定。布达佩斯科尔文斯大学的桑多尔·纳吉表示：“欧盟需要在中国和美国之外争取到尽可能多的经济伙伴。”
Even so, there will probably be some continuity in foreign policy. No MAGA-aligned leader in South America has broken relations with China, the biggest buyer of South American commodities. Brazil is unlikely to buck the trend. Though its ties to the European Union could become strained over deforestation, this is unlikely to threaten a newly minted free-trade deal between the EU and Mercosur, a Brazil-led trade bloc. The EU “needs all the economic partners it can get outside China and America,” says Sándor Nagy of Corvinus University in Budapest.
在国内，弗拉维奥总统任期的后果将更具锋利性。他可能发动一场针对其父亲 perceived 敌人的报复行动。他的目标可能包括最高法院法官、抵抗政变企图的军人、不向MAGA低头的外交官，以及调查其家族的联邦警察。
At home the consequences of a Flávio presidency would have a sharper edge. He could pursue a campaign of vengeance against his father’s perceived enemies. Among his targets may be Supreme Court justices, soldiers who resisted the coup attempt, diplomats who do not kowtow to MAGA and federal policemen who have investigated the clan.
弗拉维奥还将能够塑造该国的监管机构和机构，影响长达一代人，这是因为存在异常多的空缺职位。目前可供竞争的包括最高法院11个席位中的4个席位、央行董事会的2个席位，以及证券监管机构和反垄断监管机构的职位。
Flávio would also be able to shape the country’s regulatory agencies and institutions for a generation, due to an unusually large number of vacancies. Up for grabs are four out of 11 seats on the Supreme Court and two spots on the board of the central bank, as well as posts at the securities regulator and antitrust watchdog.
弗拉维奥的胜利将使经济成为最大受益者。结果公布后，股市上扬，货币走强。投资者认为，弗拉维奥和右翼国会将实施严格的财政紧缩。弗拉维奥承诺通过国有企业私有化、支出上限和削减政府规模，在18个月内实现相当于GDP 1.5%的节约。
The big beneficiary of a Flávio victory would be the economy. Stocks rallied after the results were announced, and the currency strengthened. Investors believe that Flávio and a right-wing Congress will enact a tough fiscal adjustment. Flávio has promised savings worth 1.5% of GDP over 18 months through privatisations of state-owned firms, a spending cap and slashing the government.
然而，迄今为止，细节仍然甚少。弗拉维奥承诺取消大量税收，这将削减财政收入。他的团队已经放弃对养老金制度的改革，而该制度是导致不可持续支出上升的主要因素。受利益集团左右的国会似乎不愿削减税收优惠，而这些优惠每年占GDP的7%。弗拉维奥的顾问们不 helpful 地排除了将养老金等社会福利与最低工资脱钩的可能性。随着最低工资每年必然上涨，它带动了所有与之挂钩的其他支出也随之增加。
Yet so far, details have been thin. Flávio promises to scrap a large number of taxes, which would shrink revenues. His team has written off a reform of the pension system, the main item pushing up unsustainable spending. Congress, which is beholden to lobbies, appears unwilling to cut tax breaks, which cost 7% of GDP. Flávio’s advisers have unhelpfully ruled out delinking social benefits such as pensions from the minimum wage. As this rises inexorably each year, it drives up all other spending indexed to it.
市场将研究弗拉维奥的竞选活动，尤其是他对财政部长的提名。与此同时，环保人士、法官以及调查过他家庭的人将担忧地注视着事态发展。
Markets will study Flávio’s campaign, especially his pick for finance minister. Meanwhile environmentalists, judges and those who have investigated his family will look on with trepidation.
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