混合动力汽车出口激增将为中国车企带来急需的第三季度盈利提振。欧洲的进口限制和国内的出口税调整，如今却给前景蒙上阴影。
A surge in hybrid-vehicle exports is set to give Chinese automakers a much-needed third-quarter earnings boost. Import curbs in Europe and exports tax changes at home are now clouding their outlook.
据预估，比亚迪股份有限公司净利润可能录得六个季度以来最大增幅，吉利汽车控股有限公司利润预计增长36%（基于两份预估的平均值），浙江零跑科技股份有限公司有望实现创纪录盈利。所有车企均受益于强劲出口，弥补了国内需求疲软的不足，但鉴于出口障碍日益增多，市场将密切关注它们对未来几个月的展望。
BYD Co.’s net income likely jumped the most in six quarters, estimates show, while Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.’s profit probably grew 36% based on the average of two estimates and Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co. is set to post record earnings. All will have benefited from strong exports, making up for sluggish domestic demand, though their views of the months ahead will be monitored closely given growing export hurdles.
欧盟最早将于12月1日起，对来自中国的混合动力汽车设定每年35万辆的进口上限。与此同时，中国计划自4月1日起将增值税出口退税率由13%下调至9%，这将削弱海外销售的盈利能力。
The European Union has set an import cap of 350,000 hybrid vehicles per year from China as soon as Dec. 1. Meanwhile, China plans to reduce its value-added tax export rebate to 9% from 13% effective April 1, denting profitability from overseas sales.
彭博情报分析师陈嘉琳（Joanna Chen，音译）表示：“投资者关注的是2027年：国内需求能否企稳，以及车企将如何消化新能源汽车出口退税降低和贸易壁垒上升带来的更高成本。”
“Investors are focusing on 2027: whether domestic demand can stabilize, and how automakers will absorb higher costs from a lower tax rebate on NEV exports and rising trade barriers,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Joanna Chen.
陈嘉琳在报告中指出，欧盟的年度配额可能会将中国车企在欧洲60%的混动销量挡在门外，比亚迪、上汽集团和奇瑞汽车股份有限公司最为脆弱。
The EU’s annual quota could potentially exclude 60% of Chinese automakers’ hybrid volume in Europe, with BYD, SAIC Motor Corp. and Chery Automobile Co. the most vulnerable, Chen said in a note.
全球汽车行业正努力应对来自中国的车辆涌入，中国车企为寻求增长和利润而转向海外市场。
The global auto industry is struggling to come to terms with an influx of cars from China as the country’s automakers look overseas for growth and profit.
在关税和其他限制将中国车企拒之门外的美国市场之外，它们对欧洲等其他海外市场的依赖日益加深，以支撑业绩。
While Chinese automakers are cut off from the US market by tariffs and other restrictions, they have grown increasingly dependent on other overseas markets like Europe to bolster their bottom lines.
中国对欧贸易顺差在9月创下纪录，对欧出口超过600亿美元，使布鲁塞尔越来越倾向于实施进口限制。
China’s trade surplus with the EU reached a record in September, with exports to the region exceeding $60 billion, making Brussels increasingly receptive to import restrictions.
今年，中国电动汽车相关股票的表现不佳，主要是因为投资者对国内需求疲软以及监管政策不确定性的担忧日益加剧。尽管北京与欧盟之间的贸易谈判取得进展，同时中国也减少了出口增值税的退税幅度，从而缓解了一些政策上的不确定性，但汽车制造商仍需展现出足够的盈利能力，才能重新提振股价。
Chinese EV stocks have underperformed this year as mounting concerns over weak domestic demand and regulatory uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment. While progress in trade talks between Beijing and the EU and China’s reduction of export VAT tax rebates have cleared some policy ambiguity, carmakers will still need to demonstrate margin resilience to reignite share momentum.
比亚迪在香港上市的股票今年下跌了23%，表现逊于彭博社统计的全球电动汽车相关股票的平均跌幅（14%）；较小的竞争对手小鹏汽车和小米公司的股价跌幅则更为严重，同期分别下跌了53%和31%。
BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares have dropped 23% this year, underperforming a Bloomberg gauge of global electric vehicle-related stocks that slid 14%. Smaller rivals Xpeng Inc. and Xiaomi Corp. have suffered even steeper losses, slumping 53% and 31% in the same period, respectively.
尽管贸易摩擦和税收政策的变化给行业带来了不利影响，但汇丰银行分析师丁宇谦领导的团队在一份报告中指出：“我们认为，政策的透明度提高应该有助于减少目前困扰该行业的不确定性。”
While trade frictions and tax changes pose headwinds, “we believe greater policy visibility should reduce some of the uncertainty that has weighed on the sector,” HSBC analysts led by Yuqian Ding wrote in a note.
杰富瑞银行分析师雷晓毅表示，推动股价上涨的关键因素包括：企业可能会提前在2027年之前增加产品出货量以规避贸易限制；此外，中国汽车制造商在海外市场的本地化生产进程也在加速推进。
Key earnings catalysts include potential shipment front-loading through early 2027 to beat trade curbs and a rapid ramping up of local overseas manufacturing, Jefferies analysts led by Xiaoyi Lei said.
小鹏汽车已经在奥地利开始生产汽车，比亚迪计划本季度在匈牙利启动生产，而 Leapmotor 已经与 Stellantis NV 建立了销售和制造合作伙伴关系。汇丰银行的丁宇谦认为，虽然本地化生产需要额外的投资和执行风险，但这一举措将有助于支持中国汽车制造商的长期发展，降低其对关税和出口配额的依赖，并提升它们在欧洲市场的竞争力。
Xpeng already makes cars in Austria, BYD plans to start production in Hungary this quarter and Leapmotor already has a sales and manufacturing partnership with Stellantis NV. While localization involves additional investment and execution risks, it should support long-term growth, reduce exposure to tariffs and export quotas and strengthen the competitive position of leading Chinese automakers in Europe, HSBC’s Ding said.