China’s hybrid car exports to the European Union tripled in September from a year earlier, with shipments expected to remain elevated before an import cap agreed during recent trade talks takes effect.

The country shipped nearly 100,000 hybrid cars to the bloc last month, up 18.9 per cent from August and 204.2 per cent from a year earlier, customs data showed on Tuesday.

The surge outpaced a 142.7 per cent year-on-year rise in China’s total exports of passenger cars to the EU. Analysts said the rapid growth likely reflected carmakers front-loading vehicles ahead of high-level negotiations held in Beijing in early October.

“Dealerships may have sought to get as many purchases in as possible before potential quotas or tariffs ahead of trade talks,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

After months of rising tensions, Chinese and EU officials met for trade talks earlier this month in Beijing, where they agreed to cap hybrid car imports into the bloc for four years. The limit starts at 350,000 units a year and will rise 6 per cent annually from the second year.

“With the import cap set to go into effect on December 1, we would likely see elevated imports in the next two months of data as well,” Song said.

Chinese carmakers have increasingly pivoted to hybrid cars for the European market since Brussels imposed tariffs of up to 35.3 per cent on pure electric cars from the country in 2024.

China exported about 670,000 hybrid cars to the EU’s 27 member states in the first three quarters of this year, nearly double the 356,000 recorded for the entirety of 2025, according to customs data.

Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said Chinese carmakers had previously shown a pattern of shipping vehicles early to get ahead of potential restrictions, citing Brazil’s tariff increase on electric vehicles (EVs) last year and changes to Thailand’s EV subsidy programme at the end of 2023.

He expected exports to remain elevated through October and November, noting that the China-EU trade understanding did not appear to place any restrictions on front-loading.

“But it will not hurt trade ties because an agreement has already been made, and the EU should be quite happy with China’s concession,” Xu said.

China’s total exports to the EU rose 25.3 per cent year on year by value in September, while the country’s total exports surged 36.3 per cent, far above market expectations.

Strong exports have helped support economic growth amid persistent weakness in domestic demand, with China’s economy expanding 4.5 per cent in the third quarter.

Song said the expected increase in car shipments ahead of the import cap, alongside continued strength in technology-related trade, should “help keep China’s exports strong to close out the year”.

“I expect China will reach a new record high for its trade surplus in 2026,” Song added.

China’s trade surplus reached a record US$1.2 trillion last year, drawing heightened scrutiny from Western trading partners. Despite the EU’s recent agreement with Beijing, European officials called for further trade measures to counter imbalances last week.