随着北京和布鲁塞尔出台将影响其出口的措施，中国电动汽车制造商遭受双重打击，导致分析师下调了该行业的盈利预期。
China’s electric vehicle (EV) makers have been hit with a double blow as both Beijing and Brussels introduce measures that will affect their exports, leading analysts to revise down their earnings forecasts for the industry.
行业官员表示，这两项双重措施——再加上中国国内市场销量的下滑——可能会给中国约50家电动汽车制造商中的一些企业带来“生死存亡的时刻”，从而加大这些公司的财务压力。
The twin measures – combined with a sales decline in China’s domestic market – could create a “do-or-die moment” for some of the country’s 50-odd EV makers, ramping up financial pressure on the companies, according to industry officials.
周五，中国与欧盟就贸易达成了一项“谅解”，布鲁塞尔将对中国产混合动力汽车的进口实施配额限制——这是欧洲减少对华贸易逆差的更广泛努力的一部分。
On Friday, China and the European Union reached an “understanding” on trade that will see Brussels impose a quota on imports of Chinese-made hybrid vehicles – part of a wider effort by Europe to reduce its trade deficit with China.
在此之后，北京方面于周一宣布，将从明年4月起把电动汽车出口的增值税退税率从13%下调至9%。
That was followed by an announcement from Beijing on Monday that it would slash a value-added tax (VAT) rebate for exports of electric cars from 13 per cent to 9 per cent from April next year.
这些政策将对中国汽车制造商的出口收益产生直接影响——对于过去一年一直依靠蓬勃发展的海外出货量来弥补国内销量低迷的汽车行业来说，这是一个挫折。
The policies are set to have a direct impact on Chinese carmakers’ earnings from exports – a setback for an industry that has relied on booming overseas shipments to offset a slump in domestic sales over the past year.
德意志银行在周一的一份报告中表示，中国出口增值税退税率下调4个百分点“势必会对中国新能源汽车出口商的利润率产生直接的逆风影响……这可能会实质性地拖累其国际盈利能力”。
The four-percentage-point cut in China’s export VAT rebate “is poised to act as a direct margin headwind for Chinese new-energy vehicle exporters … which could materially weigh on their international profitability”, Deutsche Bank said in a note on Monday.
该行表示，全球最大的电动汽车制造商比亚迪出口到欧盟的每辆汽车的净利润因此可能会减少约5,000元人民币（合747美元）。
BYD, the world’s biggest EV maker, could see its net profit of each car exported to the EU fall by about 5,000 yuan (US$747) per car as a result, according to the bank.
与此同时，欧盟贸易主管马罗什·谢夫乔维奇表示，由于出口配额的原因，中国汽车制造商未来四年对欧盟市场的混合动力汽车出口量将减少“数百万辆”。
Meanwhile, Chinese carmakers will see their hybrid vehicle exports to the EU market fall by “several million cars” over the next four years due to the export quota, according to EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic.
彭博社报道称，欧盟委员会最初可能会将中国产混合动力汽车的进口量上限设定为每年35万辆，未来四年配额每年递增6%。
Bloomberg reported that the European Commission was likely to cap Chinese-made hybrid vehicle imports at 350,000 per year initially, with the quota increasing by 6 per cent annually over the next four years.
欧洲汽车制造商协会的数据显示，仅在2026年上半年，中国就向欧盟运送了总计45.2万辆混合动力汽车。
China shipped a total of 452,000 hybrid cars to the EU in the first half of 2026 alone, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.
德意志银行表示，仅比亚迪一家的欧洲销量就将因配额而减少约8万辆，从而拖累其未来的出口增长。该行表示，已将比亚迪2027年的利润预测下调了21%。
BYD alone would see its European sales decline by about 80,000 cars due to the quota, Deutsche Bank said, putting a drag on its export growth in the future. The bank said it had revised down its profit forecast for BYD in 2027 by 21 per cent.
上海索莱咨询公司高级经理韩Eric表示：“欧洲是中国产电动汽车的主要增长市场，出口配额对像比亚迪这样寻求在那里实现高增长的公司来说无异于一道壁垒。”
“Europe is the major growth market for Chinese-made EVs, and an export quota is nothing less than a barrier for companies like BYD to pursue high growth there,” said Eric Han, a senior manager at Shanghai-based consultancy Suolei.
“他们被鼓励向价值链高端迈进，打造昂贵的高端车型来吸引欧洲客户。”在欧盟对中国纯电动汽车征收高达35.3%的关税后，中国汽车制造商在过去两年里转向了欧洲市场的混合动力汽车。
“They are encouraged to move up the value chain to build expensive, premium models to attract European customers.”Chinese carmakers have pivoted to hybrid cars in the European market over the past two years, after the EU placed tariffs of up to 35.3 per cent on pure electric cars from China.
生机勃勃的海外销售为中国汽车行业提供了缓冲，以抵御疲软的国内市场。2026年前九个月，汽车销量同比暴跌21.7%，至1,330万辆。
Buoyant overseas sales have offered China’s automotive industry a cushion against a weak domestic market, with car sales plunging 21.7 per cent year on year in the first nine months of 2026 to 13.3 million.
中国乘用车市场信息联席会预测，今年中国汽车出口量将激增至1,200万辆，比去年的830万辆增长44%。
China’s vehicle exports are forecast to surge to 12 million this year, up 44 per cent from last year’s 8.3 million, according to the China Passenger Car Association.
尽管海外人气不断上升，但由于销售低迷导致国内市场爆发激烈的价格战，中国的一些电动汽车制造商正面临财务压力。
Despite their growing popularity overseas, some of China’s EV makers are facing financial pressure as sluggish sales contribute to a fierce price war in the domestic market.
在近30家专注于电动汽车的中国汽车制造商中，上半年实现盈利的只有三家：比亚迪、得到斯特兰蒂斯支持的零跑汽车以及高端电动汽车组装商蔚来。另外大约20家制造商既生产电动汽车，也生产汽油动力汽车。
Among the nearly 30 Chinese carmakers that focus solely on EVs, only three generated a profit in the first half of the year: BYD, Stellantis-backed Leapmotor and premium EV assembler Nio. Another 20 or so manufacturers make both EVs and petrol-powered cars.
摩根史坦利周一在报告中表示，随着中国汽车制造商日益推进本土化生产以规避关税和新的出口配额，欧盟的汽车制造设施可能会受到他们的炙手可热的追捧。
Morgan Stanley said in a report on Monday that auto manufacturing facilities in the EU could be highly sought after by Chinese carmakers as they increasingly localised production to avoid tariffs and the new export quota.
报告称，随着新进入者寻求准入，利用率不足的工厂和合同制造商可能会获得定价能力，而拥有欧洲产能的中国电池和零部件供应商很可能会跟随中国汽车制造商建立的组装厂来扩大产能。
Underutilised plants and contract manufacturers could gain pricing power as late entrants seek access, while Chinese battery and component suppliers with European capacity are likely to follow assemblies built by Chinese carmakers to expand capacity, it said.