作为一名高尔夫爱好者和经常前往首都的旅行者，我对特朗普总统周日宣布其政府将把位于国家广场附近的公共球场东波托马克高尔夫球场改建为举办职业赛事的锦标赛级场地一事表示欢迎。但作为一名选民，我不禁要问总统是否疯了。
As an avid golfer and frequent traveler to the nation’s capital, I welcomed President Trump’s announcement Sunday that his administration will convert East Potomac Golf Links, a public course near the National Mall, into a championship-level venue for professional tournaments. As a voter, however, I wondered if the president had lost his cotton-picking mind.
福克斯新闻在特朗普于Truth Social发布高尔夫球场帖子前四天发布的一项民调显示，特朗普的工作支持率降至“创纪录的低点36%”。四分之三的受访者对经济持，超过一半的人预计明年经济会恶化，三分之二的人认为国家走错了方向。据福克斯新闻报道，距离中期选举不足三周，“对特朗普工作表现的不满率在通胀问题上达到77%，经济问题上达到70%，关税问题上达到69%，外交政策问题上达到64%”。总统的回应却是分享他重新设计高尔夫球场的计划——连同效果图？
A Fox News survey released four days before the Truth Social golf-course post put Mr. Trump’s job approval at a “record low 36%.”Three-fourths of respondents rated the economy negatively, more than half expected it to worsen next year, and two-thirds said the country is headed in the wrong direction. Less than three weeks until the midterm elections, “disapproval of the job Trump is doing has reached 77% on inflation, 70% on the economy, 69% on tariffs and 64% on foreign policy,” according to Fox. The president responded by sharing his plans—complete with mock-ups—to redesign a golf course?
特朗普是无知还是厚颜无耻，这是精神分析学家可以争论的问题，但即使是铁杆“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）支持者和国会中的共和党盟友也已对他的反复无常感到厌倦。许多美国人正在受苦，其中包括特朗普基本盘的很大一部分人，他们再次选举他主要是为了解决在拜登总统任内恶化的生活成本问题。
Whether Mr. Trump is clueless or shameless is something psychoanalysts can debate, but even MAGA die-hards and GOP allies in Congress have grown weary of his erratic behavior. Many Americans are hurting, and they include large chunks of Mr. Trump’s base, which re-elected him primarily to address cost-of-living concerns that worsened under President Biden.
他难道没注意到，由于对进口汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝征收关税，买车变得更贵了吗？他难道没注意到，较高的抵押贷款利率让年轻人购买首套住房变得更加困难吗？难道没人告诉他，食品、汽油和其他必需品的价格不仅依然高企，而且涨幅持续超过收入增长吗？
Has he noticed that buying a car is more expensive thanks to tariffs on imported vehicles, auto parts, steel and aluminum? Has he noticed that higher mortgage interest rates have made it more difficult for young people to purchase their first home? Has no one informed him that prices for food, gas and other necessities not only remain steep but continue to outpace earnings?
总统似乎没有意识到的问题，他的选民恐怕看得很清楚，尤其是那些身处农区和农村地区、能够看透关联的选民。能源成本飙升与俄罗斯在乌克兰的侵略行径直接相关，特朗普曾反复誓言在就职后24小时内结束这场冲突；也与伊朗战争有关，那是他挑起的战争，但迄今缺乏结束它的决心，却反复宣称我们已经获胜。
What seems lost on the president surely isn’t lost on his voters, particularly those in farm country and rural areas who can connect the dots. Elevated energy costs are directly related to Russian aggression in Ukraine, which Mr. Trump repeatedly vowed to end within 24 hours of his inauguration, and to the war in Iran, which he started but so far lacks the determination to finish, while repeatedly claiming that we’ve already won.
选民从政府那里得到的不是共情，而是不断推卸责任、反复要求多给耐心，以及毫无意义的面子工程。我们有一位专心致力于建造白宫舞厅、在阿灵顿国家公墓入口附近修建凯旋门、并将自己的名字冠于肯尼迪表演艺术中心的总统。特朗普的国防部长宣布五角大楼将直播一场枪决军事处决，特朗普最初还表示支持。仅仅为了取乐，总统还发布了一段疯狂的AI生成视频，嘲弄一名精神受困男子闯入动物园老虎围栏被活活咬死。
What voters have received from the administration instead of empathy is constant blame-shifting, repeated calls for more patience, and mindless vanity projects. We have a president preoccupied with building a White House ballroom, erecting a triumphal arch near the entrance of Arlington National Cemetery, and affixing his name to the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Mr. Trump’s defense secretary announced the Pentagon would livestream a military execution by firing squad, and Mr. Trump initially endorsed the idea. Just for fun, the president posted a demented AI-generated video of himself mocking a mentally disturbed man who climbed into a tiger enclosure at a zoo and was mauled to death.
共和党策略师告诉我，中期选举的关键在于动员最铁杆的支持者，尽管总统近来行为古怪，他在基本盘中依然受欢迎。这没错，但同样真实的是，总统的基本盘已在萎缩，白宫对此感到担忧。证据就在特朗普花时间竞选的地点：他去了阿拉斯加瓦西拉、俄亥俄州马霍宁县、亚利桑那州莫哈维县等地。他去那里不是为了争取独立选民和摇摆选民。这些都是共和党铁票仓，他的目标是激发“让美国再次伟大”铁杆支持者的热情，因为白宫担心他们会在选举日待在家里不去投票。
Republican strategists tell me that midterm elections are all about turning out your fiercest supporters, and that despite the president’s bizarre behavior of late, he remains popular with the base. That’s true, but it’s also true that the president’s base has shrunk and the White House is worried. The proof is where Mr. Trump has spent his time campaigning. He’s gone to places like Wasilla, Alaska; Mahoning County, Ohio; and Mohave County, Ariz. He wasn’t there to woo independents and swing voters. These are heavily Republican areas, and his objective was to rally the MAGA faithful because the White House fears they’ll stay home on Election Day.
特朗普先生及其支持者将不利民调斥为虚假或不可靠，而民调机构在近几次选举中的预测在某些情况下严重偏离实际，并未帮自己赢得信誉。问题究竟是由党派倾向造成，还是因为无法让特朗普选民回应调查，至今仍在争论中。但完全无视不利结果将是不明智的。
Mr. Trump and his supporters dismiss negative polls as fake or unreliable, and pollsters haven’t helped themselves in recent elections with predictions that in some cases have been wildly off base. Whether the problem is driven by partisan leanings or an inability to get Trump voters to respond to surveys continues to be debated. But simply ignoring unfavorable results outright would be ill-advised.
同样，过早断定特朗普先生已无望也为时过早。他在2016年获胜，八年后又卷土重来，打破了许多以跟踪政治为业的媒体人士的预期。共和党今年拥有资金优势和有利的政治版图。将决定参议院控制权的大多数竞选都在特朗普先生2024年赢下的州展开。尽管如此，这位总统的支持率却低于乔·拜登2022年或巴拉克·奥巴马2010年的水平——那两年民主党分别失去了63个席位。甚至也低于特朗普先生2018年的支持率——那年共和党失去40个席位，民主党夺得众议院控制权。
It likewise would be premature to count out Mr. Trump, whose victory in 2016 and comeback eight years later defied the expectations of many people in the media who follow politics for a living. Republicans this year enjoy a financial advantage and a favorable political map. Most of the races that will decide who controls the Senate are being fought in states that Mr. Trump carried in 2024. Still, the president’s approval rating is lower than Joe Biden’s in 2022 or Barack Obama’s in 2010, when Democrats lost 63 seats. It’s also lower than Mr. Trump’s rating in 2018, when his party dropped 40 seats and Democrats took control of the House.
奇怪的是，特朗普先生不断要求人们“假装我在选票上”。民主党人已经在这么做了。总统先生，就共和党而言，请慎重许愿。
Oddly, Mr. Trump keeps asking people to “pretend that I’m on the ballot.”Democrats are already doing that. With respect to Republicans, Mr. President, be careful what you wish for.
[视频] 《华尔街日报》观点：关键是经济，蠢货——但有多蠢？
[video] WSJ Opinion: It’s the Economy, Stupid—but How Stupid?