作为一名高尔夫球爱好者和首都的常客，我很高兴听到特朗普总统周日宣布，他的政府将把位于国家广场附近的公共球场东波托马克高尔夫球场改造成适合举办职业锦标赛的顶级球场。然而，作为一名选民，我不禁怀疑这位总统是不是脑子出了问题。
As an avid golfer and frequent traveler to the nation’s capital, I welcomed President Trump’s announcement Sunday that his administration will convert East Potomac Golf Links, a public course near the National Mall, into a championship-level venue for professional tournaments.
在特朗普于“真实社交”发布关于高尔夫球场的帖子四天前，福克斯新闻发布的一项民调显示，特朗普的支持率创下了“36%的历史新低”。四分之三的受访者对经济持，超过一半的人预计明年经济会恶化，三分之二的人表示国家正朝着错误的防线发展。距离中期选举还有不到三周的时间，据福克斯报道，“对特朗普工作的不满情绪在通胀问题上达到了77%，在经济问题上达到了70%，在关税问题上达到了69%，在外交政策上达到了64%”。
As a voter, however, I wondered if the president had lost his cotton-picking mind.A Fox News survey released four days before the Truth Social golf-course post put Mr. Trump’s job approval at a “record low 36%.”Three-fourths of respondents rated the economy negatively, more than half expected it to worsen next year, and two-thirds said the country is headed in the wrong direction. Less than three weeks until the midterm elections, “disapproval of the job Trump is doing has reached 77% on inflation, 70% on the economy, 69% on tariffs and 64% on foreign policy,” according to Fox.
而面对这一切，总统的回应却是分享他重新设计高尔夫球场的计划——甚至还附带了效果图？
The president responded by sharing his plans—complete with mock-ups—to redesign a golf course?
特朗普究竟是毫无头绪还是厚颜无耻，这是精神分析学家可以争论的问题，但即便是“让美国再次伟大”的死忠粉和国会中的共和党盟友，也已经对他的反复无常感到厌倦。许多美国人正在遭受苦难，其中包括特朗普支持者中的很大一部分，他们再次选举他主要是为了解决在拜登总统任内恶化的生活成本问题。
Whether Mr. Trump is clueless or shameless is something psychoanalysts can debate, but even MAGA die-hards and GOP allies in Congress have grown weary of his erratic behavior. Many Americans are hurting, and they include large chunks of Mr. Trump’s base, which re-elected him primarily to address cost-of-living concerns that worsened under President Biden.
他有没有注意到，由于对进口汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝征收关税，买车变得更加昂贵了？他有没有注意到，更高的抵押贷款利率使年轻人更难购买他们的第一套住房？难道没有人通知他，食品、天然气和其他必需品的价格不仅居高不下，而且还在继续超过收入增长吗？
Has he noticed that buying a car is more expensive thanks to tariffs on imported vehicles, auto parts, steel and aluminum? Has he noticed that higher mortgage interest rates have made it more difficult for young people to purchase their first home? Has no one informed him that prices for food, gas and other necessities not only remain steep but continue to outpace earnings?
总统似乎没有意识到这一点，但他的选民肯定意识到了，特别是那些能够将各种线索联系起来的农业区和农村地区的选民。不断上升的能源成本与俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略直接相关——特朗普曾多次誓言要在就职后24小时内结束这场战争——也与他挑起但迄今缺乏决心结束的伊朗战争相关，而他却一再声称我们已经赢了。
What seems lost on the president surely isn’t lost on his voters, particularly those in farm country and rural areas who can connect the dots. Elevated energy costs are directly related to Russian aggression in Ukraine, which Mr. Trump repeatedly vowed to end within 24 hours of his inauguration, and to the war in Iran, which he started but so far lacks the determination to finish, while repeatedly claiming that we’ve already won.
选民从政府那里得到的不是同理心，而是不断地甩锅、一再呼吁保持耐心，以及毫无意义的虚荣项目。我们有一位热衷于建造白宫宴会厅、在阿灵顿国家公墓入口附近竖立凯旋门，并在肯尼迪表演艺术中心冠上自己名字的总统。特朗普的国防部长宣布五角大楼将直播行刑队执行死刑，而特朗普最初支持了这个想法。为了好玩，总统甚至发布了一段由人工智能生成的疯狂视频，视频中他嘲笑了一个爬进动物园老虎园区并被撕咬致死的精神失常男子。
What voters have received from the administration instead of empathy is constant blame-shifting, repeated calls for more patience, and mindless vanity projects. We have a president preoccupied with building a White House ballroom, erecting a triumphal arch near the entrance of Arlington National Cemetery, and affixing his name to the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Mr. Trump’s defense secretary announced the Pentagon would livestream a military execution by firing squad, and Mr. Trump initially endorsed the idea. Just for fun, the president posted a demented AI-generated video of himself mocking a mentally disturbed man who climbed into a tiger enclosure at a zoo and was mauled to death.
共和党战略家告诉我，中期选举的关键在于动员最坚定的支持者，尽管总统最近有种种怪异行为，他在基本盘中依然很受欢迎。这确实是真的，但同样真实的是，总统的基本盘已经缩小，白宫对此感到焦虑。证据就是特朗普将竞选时间花在了哪些地方。他去了阿拉斯加州瓦西拉、俄亥俄州马霍宁县和亚利桑那州莫哈韦县等地。
Republican strategists tell me that midterm elections are all about turning out your fiercest supporters, and that despite the president’s bizarre behavior of late, he remains popular with the base. That’s true, but it’s also true that the president’s base has shrunk and the White House is worried. The proof is where Mr. Trump has spent his time campaigning. He’s gone to places like Wasilla, Alaska; Mahoning County, Ohio; and Mohave County, Ariz.
他去那里可不是为了争取独立选民和摇摆选民。这些都是坚定的共和党选区，他的目的是为了集结“让美国再次伟大”的忠实信徒，因为白宫担心他们在选举日会选择留在家中。
He wasn’t there to woo independents and swing voters. These are heavily Republican areas, and his objective was to rally the MAGA faithful because the White House fears they’ll stay home on Election Day.
特朗普和他的支持者将负面的民调斥为假新闻或不可靠，而民调机构在最近几次选举中的预测在某些情况下严重失准，这也无济于事。问题究竟是由于党派倾向造成的，还是无法让特朗普的选民参与民调，目前仍在争论中。但如果直接忽视不利的结果，将是不明智的。
Mr. Trump and his supporters dismiss negative polls as fake or unreliable, and pollsters haven’t helped themselves in recent elections with predictions that in some cases have been wildly off base. Whether the problem is driven by partisan leanings or an inability to get Trump voters to respond to surveys continues to be debated. But simply ignoring unfavorable results outright would be ill-advised.
同样，现在就将特朗普排除在外也为时过早，他在2016年的胜利以及八年后的卷土重来，曾让许多以政治为生的媒体界人士大跌眼镜。共和党今年拥有资金优势和有利的政治版图。决定谁将控制参议院的大多数竞选都在特朗普在2024年获胜的州展开。尽管如此，总统的支持率仍低于2022年的乔·拜登或2010年的巴拉克·奥巴马，当时民主党失去了63个席位。这也低于特朗普在2018年的支持率，当时他的政党失去了40个席位，民主党夺取了众议院的控制权。
It likewise would be premature to count out Mr. Trump, whose victory in 2016 and comeback eight years later defied the expectations of many people in the media who follow politics for a living. Republicans this year enjoy a financial advantage and a favorable political map. Most of the races that will decide who controls the Senate are being fought in states that Mr. Trump carried in 2024. Still, the president’s approval rating is lower than Joe Biden’s in 2022 or Barack Obama’s in 2010, when Democrats lost 63 seats. It’s also lower than Mr. Trump’s rating in 2018, when his party dropped 40 seats and Democrats took control of the House.
奇怪的是，特朗普一再要求人们“就当我也在选票上”。民主党人已经照单全收了。致敬共和党，总统先生，当心你许下的愿望成真。
Oddly, Mr. Trump keeps asking people to “pretend that I’m on the ballot.”Democrats are already doing that. With respect to Republicans, Mr. President, be careful what you wish for.