
伊斯兰堡 -- 俄罗斯内政部长上周首次访问巴基斯坦,为两国加强合作开辟了道路,尽管莫斯科近期一直在努力加强与阿富汗塔利班政权的外交关系,并与新德里保持着长期关系。
ISLAMABAD -- The first visit by a Russian interior minister to Pakistan last week has opened avenues for closer cooperation between the two countries despite Moscow's recent efforts to bolster diplomatic relations with Afghanistan's Taliban regime and its longstanding relations with New Delhi.
俄罗斯内政部长弗拉基米尔·科洛科利采夫于10月12日至15日访问巴基斯坦,受到该国总统、总理、内政部长和国防部队参谋长的接见。根据内政部消息,双方达成多项协议,包括一份关于打击有组织犯罪的谅解备忘录,以及引渡和移交囚犯安排的最终确定。双方还讨论了犯罪情报共享协议。
Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev visited Pakistan from Oct. 12 to 15 and was received by the country's president, prime minister, interior minister and chief of defense forces. A number of agreements were reached, including a memorandum of understanding on combating organized crime, and the finalization of extradition and prisoner transfer arrangements. A crime intelligence-sharing agreement was also discussed, according to the Interior Ministry.
一位参与双边关系的消息人士在接受《日经亚洲》采访时表示,科洛科利采夫的此次访问是双边关系逐步改善的一部分。该人士要求匿名。他说:“如果总理夏巴兹·谢里夫今年晚些时候访问莫斯科时,此次访问提出的协议得以落实,那么明年普京总统访问巴基斯坦将成为这一进程的高潮。”
A source involved in bilateral relations told Nikkei Asia on condition of anonymity that Kolokoltsev's visit is part of gradually improving ties. "If the agreements proposed during this visit materialized when Prime Minister [Shehbaz] Sharif visits Moscow later this year, then it could culminate with President [Vladimir] Putin visiting Pakistan next year," he said.
观察人士称,除了犯罪相关议程外,经济合作将成为双方接触的主要部分。
Apart from the crime-related agendas, economic cooperation will be a major part of the engagement, observers said.
2014年至2016年担任巴基斯坦驻莫斯科大使的扎希尔·阿斯拉姆·詹朱阿表示,随着国际南北运输走廊从瓜达尔连接至圣彼得堡,经济关系必将得到推进,这将便利俄罗斯液化天然气和原油的出口。
Zaheer Aslam Janjua, Pakistan's ambassador to Moscow from 2014 to 2016, said economic relations would certainly be advanced with the connection of the International North-South Transport Corridor from Gwadar to St. Petersburg, facilitating exports of Russian liquefied natural gas and crude oil.
他对《日经亚洲》表示:“关于国防和军售的协议可能不得不等到未来的某个日期。”
"Agreements on defense and arms sales may have to wait for a future date," he told Nikkei Asia.
科洛科利采夫的此次访问是在今年7月他在联合国总部纽约与巴基斯坦同行莫辛·纳克维会晤之后进行的,当时纳克维正式邀请科洛科利采夫访问巴基斯坦。
Kolokoltsev's visit followed a meeting in New York with his Pakistani counterpart, Mohsin Naqvi, at the United Nations headquarters in July, when Naqvi officially invited Kolokoltsev to Pakistan.
总部位于纽约的全球事务研究所非常驻研究员萨哈尔·汗表示:“俄罗斯可能成为巴基斯坦进口原油、小麦和化肥以及投资的重要来源。”不过她承认,外交雄心与经济融合之间的差距众所周知,因为俄罗斯并非巴基斯坦的重要贸易伙伴——考虑到美国的制裁,未来也不大可能成为。观察人士还指出伊斯兰堡与莫斯科存在战略分歧。
Sahar Khan, a nonresident fellow at the New York-based Institute for Global Affairs, said: "Russia could become an important source for crude oil, wheat and fertilizer imports, and investment for Pakistan." She conceded, however, that the gap between diplomatic ambition and economic integration is well recognized since Russia is not a vital trading partner for Pakistan -- and unlikely to become one with U.S. sanctions. Observers also point to strategic differences between Islamabad and Moscow.
自去年以来,伊斯兰堡一直与阿富汗塔利班发生零星武装冲突,而俄罗斯于去年7月成为首个承认塔利班政府的国家,并接受了一名塔利班驻莫斯科大使。双方今年5月还签署了一项军事技术合作协议。
While Islamabad has engaged in sporadic armed conflict with the Afghan Taliban since last year, Russia became the first country to recognize the Taliban government last July, and has accredited a Taliban ambassador to Moscow. The two sides also signed a military technical cooperation agreement in May this year.
双方在阿富汗问题上的分歧依然明显。在10月5日举行的第八次“莫斯科模式”会议——一个讨论阿富汗安全与稳定的地区框架——上,巴基斯坦对源自阿富汗的“恐怖主义”表示关切,遭到喀布尔方面反驳。这导致俄方主导的会议结束时未能发表联合声明。
Their differences over the Afghan situation remain clear. At the eighth Moscow Format meeting -- a regional framework discussing Afghan security and stability -- on Oct. 5, Pakistan raised concerns about "terrorism" emanating from Afghanistan, which were disputed by Kabul. That led to a failure to issue a joint statement at the end of the Russian-led meeting.
驻伊斯兰堡的外交事务分析师卡姆兰·尤萨夫告诉《日经亚洲评论》,巴基斯坦和俄罗斯在应对塔利班问题上持有不同看法。“因此,尽管合作在增长,但这些分歧将继续考验这段关系能走多远,”他说。
Kamran Yousaf, a foreign affairs analyst based in Islamabad, told Nikkei Asia that Pakistan and Russia have different views on dealing with the Taliban. "So, while there is growing cooperation, those differences will continue to test how far the relationship can go," he said.
全球事务研究所的汗表示,落实拟议合作协议仍面临若干障碍。“情报共享也引发了关于信任、信息安全,以及双方愿在多大程度上交换具有实战价值情报的问题,”她说。“鉴于俄罗斯与印度关系良好,巴基斯坦在对俄交往上将始终谨慎行事。”一些专家预计,夏巴兹将于今年年底前访问莫斯科,此访有助于缩小分歧。
Khan of the Institute for Global Affairs said several obstacles remain to implementing the proposed cooperation agreement. "Intelligence sharing also raises questions about trust, information security, and the extent to which both countries are willing to exchange operationally useful information," she said. "Pakistan will always tread carefully with Russia because of Russia's good relationship with India." Some experts expect Sharif's Moscow visit to come before the end of the year and that it will help narrow the gap.
“从巴基斯坦的角度来看,这将是一个与俄罗斯领导层就一系列问题进行坦诚讨论的机会,包括阿富汗问题和西亚正在进行的冲突,同时也将探讨深化双边经济关系的途径,”优素福说。
"From Pakistan's perspective, it will be an opportunity to have candid discussions with the Russian leadership on a range of issues, including Afghanistan and the ongoing conflict in West Asia, while also looking at ways to deepen bilateral economic ties," Yousaf said.
上海合作组织(巴基斯坦和俄罗斯均为成员国)也定于2027年8月在伊斯兰堡举行峰会。
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in which both Pakistan and Russia are member states, is also scheduled to hold its summit in Islamabad in August 2027.
曾任巴基斯坦驻莫斯科大使的詹朱阿表示,俄罗斯总统很少缺席上合组织峰会,因此如果普京明年8月不出现在伊斯兰堡,那将是一个惊喜。
Janjua, Pakistan's former ambassador to Moscow, said that the Russian president rarely skips SCO summits, so it would be a surprise if Putin fails to turn up in Islamabad next August.
他说:“如果他确实来访,那将是一个重要时刻,因为从未有俄罗斯总统访问过巴基斯坦。”
"If he does come, it would be a significant moment because no Russian president has ever visited Pakistan," he said.
“这种象征意义很重要,但最终的问题在于,在全球和地区政治正在经历重大变革之际,这种政治势头能否转化为实质性合作。”阿德南·阿米尔为本刊撰稿人。
"The symbolism would be important, but ultimately the question will be whether that political momentum can be translated into concrete cooperation at a time when global and regional politics are undergoing a major transformation." Adnan Aamir is a contributing writer.