彭博社的一项调查显示，冲击欧洲股市的种种力量，已让策略师们对短期市场前景产生至少七年来最大的分歧。
Forces buffeting European stocks have left strategists the most divided on the near-term market outlook in at least seven years, a Bloomberg survey shows.
根据参与调查的19位策略师给出的平均目标价，斯托克欧洲600指数今年将以645点收盘，仅比周一收盘价高出不到1%。仔细观察这些预测，会发现观点存在明显的分歧。
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index will finish the year at 645 points, based on the average target from 19 strategists in the poll, less than 1% above Monday’s close. A closer look at the predictions exposes a sharp divergence in views.
有10份预测高于共识数字，9份低于共识数字，这是自2019年以来10月份的最大分散度。平均预测值与最高预测值之间的价差创下至少2017年以来该月的最大记录。
Ten forecasts are above the consensus figure and nine are below, the greatest October dispersion since 2019. The spread between the average prediction and the highest is the widest for this month since at least 2017.
随着持续高企的油价推高通胀数据，上个月调查中乐观的基调已经消退。飙升的债券收益率以及对政治不稳定（尤其是法国政治不稳定）的担忧，也削弱了市场情绪。
The optimistic tone of last month’s survey has faded as persistently elevated oil prices feed into inflation data. Soaring bond yields and worries about political instability, particularly in France, have also weakened sentiment.
本月有四位策略师下调了斯托克600指数的目标价，其中包括CIC市场公司和潘穆尔利伯姆公司的策略师。唯一的上调来自汇丰控股有限公司。目前调查中最乐观的是瑞银集团，预测年底前将上涨近8%。法国兴业银行和道富投资管理公司最为悲观，预测点数为600点。
Four strategists downgraded their Stoxx 600 targets this month, including those at CIC Markets and Panmure Liberum. The only upgrade came from HSBC Holdings Plc. The biggest bull in the poll is now UBS Group AG, predicting gains of nearly 8% by year end. Societe Generale SA and State Street Investment Management are the most bearish, with a 600 points forecast.
道富投资管理公司欧洲、中东和非洲区投资组合管理主管弗雷德里克·多达尔表示：“随着我们迈向2027年初，前景变得不太具有建设性。尽管盈利和销售预期良好，但债券收益率的上升以及几个欧洲国家的政治和财政挑战，也给股票估值带来了压力。”自8月初以来，由于未解决的伊朗战争和霍尔木兹海峡的实际关闭扰乱了供应链和能源运输，欧洲股市一直承受压力。波动性有所增加，反映出股票风险加大，斯托克600指数较两个月前的峰值下跌了3.3%。
“The outlook is less constructive as we move toward the beginning of 2027,” said Frederic Dodard, head of portfolio management for EMEA at State Street Investment Management. “The rise in bond yields alongside with the political and fiscal challenges of several European countries are also putting pressure on equity valuations despite good earnings and sales expectations.”European equities have been under pressure since early August, as the unresolved Iran war and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupt supply chains and energy shipments. Volatility has increased, reflecting greater risks for equities, with the Stoxx 600 down 3.3% from its peak two months ago.
本周布伦特原油攀升至五个月高点，逼近每桶111美元，这加剧了人们对通胀的焦虑以及对央行加息的预期。欧洲央行在上个月加息后变得更加鹰派，掉期市场预计到4月还将采取三次此类举措。至于英国央行，市场已完全消化了明年7月前加息四次的预期。
Brent oil climbed to a five-month high this week, approaching $111 a barrel, adding to angst over inflation and expectations of interest rate increases from central banks. The European Central Bank has turned more hawkish after raising rates last month and the swap market expects three more such moves through April. As for the Bank of England, four rate hikes are fully priced in by July next year.
与此同时，本周法国的动荡促使投资者要求持有该国10年期国债而放弃更安全的德国债券所需的额外收益率接近2011年以来的最高水平。巴克莱银行的策略师表示，对某些投资者而言，法国股票已成为欧洲最大的做空标的。
Turmoil in France, meanwhile, this week pushed the extra yield investors demand to hold the country’s 10-year bonds over safer German debt close to the highest since since 2011. French equities have become the largest short in Europe for some investors, according to Barclays Plc strategists.
法国兴业银行欧洲股票策略主管罗兰·卡洛扬表示：“欧洲股市的年底前景依然充满挑战。央行对持续通胀的反应、中东尚未解决的局势、即将到来的美国中期选举以及围绕法国财政前景的不确定性，都是市场担忧的来源。与此同时，投资者现在开始对人工智能交易表现出紧张情绪，这是今年少数几个提供能见度的领域之一。”法兴银行策略师保持谨慎立场，并补充说，只有又一个强劲的财报季（证明企业能够在这个充满不确定性的环境中继续实现利润增长）才能支撑信心。
“The year-end outlook for European equities remains challenging,” said Roland Kaloyan, head of European equity strategy at SocGen. “Central banks’ responses to persistent inflation, the unresolved situation in the Middle East, the upcoming US midterm elections and uncertainty surrounding France’s fiscal outlook are all sources of concern for markets. Meanwhile, investors are now showing signs of nervousness around the AI trade, which has been one of the few areas offering visibility this year.”The SocGen strategists maintained a cautious stance, adding that only another strong earnings season, demonstrating that companies can continue to deliver profit growth in this uncertain environment, would shore up confidence.
目前，盈利势头依然强劲。花旗集团的一个利润修正指标已经在正值区间维持了25周，甚至在10月份表现出某种加速，凸显出分析师的乐观情绪与投资者的谨慎态度之间的鲜明对比。
For the moment, earnings momentum remains robust. A Citigroup Inc. gauge of profit revisions has been in positive territory for 25 weeks, even showing some acceleration in October and highlighting a sharp contrast between optimism among analysts and the caution from investors.
*数据表明，由于该地区及全球宏观经济背景具有韧性，今年欧洲的利润增长预计将保持健康，约为18%，2027年将接近10%。
Profit growth in Europe is expected to remain healthy, at about 18% this year and nearly 10% in 2027, thanks to a resilient macro-economic backdrop in the region and globally, according to data .
花旗集团欧洲股票策略主管贝塔·曼泰表示：“欧洲股市近期表现落后，高利率、政治局势和能源价格对前景构成了压力。她对斯托克600指数给出了低于平均水平的640点的目标。然而，经济数据的潜在韧性和盈利修正的持续强劲令我们受到鼓舞。如果能源价格下跌，欧洲将处于非常有利的位置，可在未来取得更好的表现。”
“European equities have underperformed recently, with higher rates, politics and energy prices weighing on the outlook,” said Beata Manthey, head of European equity strategy at Citigroup. She has a below-average target of 640 for the Stoxx 600. “However, we are encouraged by the underlying resilience of economic data and continued strength of earnings revisions. Should energy prices fall, Europe is very well positioned for better performance going forward.”
尽管如此，有明显的迹象表明，投资者对欧洲的热情已经受到打击。根据美国银行上周发布的基金经理调查，净44%的受访者预计欧洲股市将在未来一到三个月内上涨。但12个月的平均预期涨幅已降至4.53%，为2025年1月以来的最低水平。
Still, there are clear signs that investor enthusiasm toward Europe has taken a hit. According to the Bank of America Corp. fund manager survey published last week, a net 44% of respondents expect European equities to rise over the next one-to-three months. But the average expected 12-month upside has fallen to 4.53%, the lowest since January 2025.
美银的民调显示，虽然欧洲投资者对该大陆的前景保持乐观，但其全球同行则更为谨慎。有净23%的受访者将低配欧洲，这是自2022年9月以来的最差读数。目前，净8%的受访者目前低配该地区。
While European investors remain upbeat about the continent’s prospects, their global peers are more wary, the BofA poll showed. A net 23% would underweight Europe, the most negative reading since September 2022. As for now, a net 8% are currently underweight the region.
巴克莱银行欧洲和亚洲股票策略主管埃马纽埃尔·科au表示：“如果利率和能源价格企稳，全球股市的风险回报率应该会在年底前逐渐改善，而低迷的波动性看起来是一个有吸引力的对冲工具。欧洲面临着来自法国财政不确定性的额外挑战，痛苦可能还没有结束。但只要盈利势头保持完好且没有出现传染担忧，我们就会看到一条通往更高水平的狭窄道路。”
“The risk-reward for global equities should gradually improve into year-end, provided rates and energy prices stabilize, while subdued volatility looks like an attractive hedge,” said Emmanuel Cau, a head of European and Asian equity strategy at Barclays Plc. “Europe faces additional challenges from French fiscal uncertainty, and the pain may not be over yet. But we see a narrow path higher, as long as earnings momentum remains intact and contagion worries don’t materialize.”