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塞尔维亚投票之际,学生成为武契奇长期统治的最大威胁As Serbia votes, students emerge as greatest threat to Vucic’s long rule

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贝尔格莱德,10月21日电 —— 当得知塞尔维亚北部城市诺维萨德火车站雨棚倒塌事故于2024年11月造成16人死亡后,贝尔格莱德大学政治学专业学生阿列克萨·西米奇(Aleksa Simic)毫不犹豫。

BELGRADE, Oct 21 - Aleksa Simic, a political science student at Belgrade University, did not hesitate when he learned that the collapse of a railway station canopy in the northern Serbian city of Novi Sad had killed 16 people in November 2024.

为了给死者讨回公道,并终结许多人认为导致车站建设豆腐渣工程的腐败现象,他和其他学生封锁了政治学院以示抗议。在塞尔维亚举国哀悼之际,同情的市民给他们送来自制饭菜、床垫和枕头。许多人专程前来探讨学生们的诉求。

Demanding justice for the dead, and an end to the kind of corruption that many believed led to the station's shoddy construction, he and other students blockaded the political science faculty in protest. As Serbia mourned, sympathetic residents brought them homemade meals, mattresses and pillows. Many stopped by to discuss the students' demands.

“这是我第一次有归属社群的感觉。我意识到我的声音很重要,”西米奇说。

"For the first time, I had a sense of belonging to a community. I realised that my voice mattered," Simic said.

两年后,随着塞尔维亚准备于10月25日举行选举,学生抗议运动已壮大成为该国最强大的政治力量之一,并对自2014年起先后担任总理、总统、长期主导塞尔维亚政治的亚历山大·武契奇(Aleksandar Vucic)的统治构成了迄今最大威胁。

Two years on, as Serbia prepares for elections on October 25, the student protest movement has ballooned to become one of the most powerful political forces in the country and poses the greatest threat yet to the rule of Aleksandar Vucic, who has dominated Serbian politics first as prime minister, then president, since 2014.

随着抗议活动因生活成本高企、就业岗位短缺和教育水平低下而在欧洲各地城市蔓延,塞尔维亚学生展示了年轻一代在凝聚广泛不满情绪时能成为何等力量。

With protests raging in cities across Europe, fuelled by the high cost of living, a shortage of jobs and poor education standards, the Serbian students have shown what a force younger generations can be when they harness widespread discontent.

据路透社采访,十几名学生和教师描述了他们如何通过有条不紊的全国逐户走访运动、和平游行、严格管控的媒体信息发布,以及领导层的不断轮换以保护个人免受政府抹黑运动的攻击,从而在塞尔维亚保持了抗议势头。

terviews with Reuters, a dozen students and teachers described how a methodical countrywide door-knocking campaign, peaceful marches, a tightly controlled media message and a constant rotation of leaders to protect individuals from government smear campaigns have helped maintain momentum in Serbia.

如今,他们推出了自己的“学生获胜”候选人名单,共有250名候选人角逐周日的选举,名单涵盖大学教授、演员、农民甚至一位知名说唱歌手。

Now, they have their own "Students Win" list of 250 candidates for Sunday's election, which includes university professors, actors, farmers and even a popular rapper.

本月唯一公布的民调,由新塞尔维亚政治思想(NSPM)于10月20日发布,显示学生候选人名单以44.5%的得票率微弱领先武契奇的塞尔维亚进步党(SNS)的42.7%,尽管博彩赔率看好武契奇。

The only poll published this month, by New Serbian Political Thought (NSPM) on October 20, showed the students' list of candidates edging ahead of Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) with 44.5% of the vote to 42.7%, although betting odds favour Vucic.

“抗议活动改变了社会。它让人们意识到他们并不孤单,”格拉茨大学东南欧历史与政治学教授弗洛里安·比伯说。

"The protests changed the society. It showed people they are not alone," said Florian Bieber, professor of Southeast European history and politics at the University of Graz.

学生运动前景未卜 最大的问题是,如果学生在周日获胜,他们将如何执政。

UNKNOWNS SURROUND STUDENT MOVEMENT The big question is how the students would govern should they win on Sunday.

武契奇是一位重要的国际人物,他在寻求与中国(主要投资国)和俄罗斯(塞尔维亚的传统盟友和主要天然气供应国)建立更紧密关系,同时为加入欧盟留有余地(尽管入盟进程停滞)之间进行微妙的平衡。

Vucic is a significant international figure, managing a delicate balancing act that seeks closer ties with China, a major investor, and Russia, Serbia's traditional ally and principal supplier of natural gas, while leaving the door open to joining the European Union even with the accession process stalled.

学生名单由心脏病专家伊利亚·斯尔达诺维奇领衔,尽管他们表示这并不意味着他会在获胜后出任总理。

The students' list is headed by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic, although they have said this does not mean he would become prime minister should they win.

一些政治分析人士担心,由一位无名小卒掌舵,该国在国际舞台上将如何应对,而关于学生将如何兑现其在国内打击腐败、促进透明、创造更大新闻自由和推行教育改革的承诺,细节寥寥无几。

Some political analysts wonder how the country would fare on the international stage with an unknown at the helm, while there are scant details about how the students will set about fulfilling their pledges to fight corruption, promote transparency, create greater media freedom and enact education reform at home.

批评者还指出,他们对加入欧盟以及与前省份科索沃的关系保持沉默。武契奇政府的亲欧反对派批评他们表示不会对俄罗斯实施制裁。

Critics also point to their silence on joining the EU and relations with the former province of Kosovo. Pro-European opponents of Vucic's government criticise them for saying that they would not introduce sanctions on Russia.

咨询公司Teneo周二在一份分析师报告中表示:“(学生领导的)政府将推行广泛改革以解决腐败问题,彻底改革关键公共机构和企业,并瓦解裙带关系网络。然而,强大的官僚阻力可能导致短期的体制不稳定。”

"A (student-led) government would pursue broad reforms to tackle corruption, overhaul key public institutions and companies, and dismantle patronage networks," consultancy Teneo said in an analyst note on Tuesday. "However, strong bureaucratic resistance could generate short-term institutional instability." GROWING DISCONTENT WITH VUCIC RULE Vucic, 56, stepped down as president in September to run again for prime minister in the snap election.

对武契奇统治的不满日益增长 现年56岁的武契奇于9月辞去总统职务,以便在提前大选中再次竞选总理。

While he has overseen a period of strong economic growth and a fall in unemployment, critics blame him for democratic backsliding, the silencing of critics and the media, and hampering Serbia's EU accession by not undertaking necessary reforms. Police have beaten protesters and threatened people who voice opposition online, rights groups, activists and students told Reuters.

尽管他主持了一段经济强劲增长和失业率下降的时期,但批评者指责他导致民主倒退、打压批评者和媒体,并因未进行必要改革而阻碍塞尔维亚加入欧盟。人权组织、活动人士和学生告诉路透社,警察殴打抗议者,并威胁在网上表达反对意见的人。

Simmering anger towards the government boiled over with the collapse of the station roof in Novi Sad. Vucic has sought to discredit the student movement, saying it is trying to destroy Serbia and accusing foreign agents from Croatia and Montenegro of financing it, but that has not dented their support.

对政府的不满情绪在诺维萨德车站屋顶坍塌后爆发。武契奇试图诋毁学生运动,称其试图摧毁塞尔维亚,并指责来自克罗地亚和黑山的外国代理人为其提供资金,但这并未削弱其支持。

Government representatives did not respond to a request for comment. Vucic and the authorities have repeatedly denied the allegations of corruption and violence and attempts to discredit the opposition. The students dismiss claims that they are being organised from abroad.

政府代表未回应置评请求。武契奇和当局一再否认腐败和暴力指控以及试图诋毁反对派的指控。学生们驳斥称他们受境外组织的说法。

HOW A SMALL MOVEMENT GREW The student protests were small to begin with: days after the canopy collapse, a few dozen people blocked traffic in Novi Sad and Belgrade for one minute for each person who was killed.

一场小型运动如何壮大 学生抗议活动起初规模很小:车棚坍塌后几天,几十人在诺维萨德和贝尔格莱德封锁交通,每遇难者默哀一分钟。

Less than three months later, in late January 2025, then prime minister and close Vucic ally Milos Vucevic resigned a day after tens of thousands of people blocked one of Belgrade's main junctions, joined by farmers in their tractors.

不到三个月后,即2025年1月底,时任总理兼武契奇密友米洛斯·武切维奇在数万人封锁贝尔格莱德一处主要路口、农民驾驶拖拉机加入抗议一天后辞职。

In March that year, the students led hundreds of thousands of people through Belgrade, the biggest anti-government march in a generation. By then, the movement had a symbol: a red handprint, representing the blood that the protesters say is on the government's hands.

同年3月,学生们带领数十万人游行穿过贝尔格莱德,这是一代人中最大规模的反政府游行。到那时,该运动已有了象征:一个红色手印,代表抗议者称沾染在政府手上的鲜血。“我们感到自己很重要,并且肩负着更大的责任,”西米奇说。

"We felt we had importance and that we had a greater responsibility," Simic said.

全国各大学院系举行了全体会议和工作小组,专注于媒体和社交媒体策略以及组织游行。

University faculties across the country held plenums and working groups focused on media and social media strategies, and organising marches.

在屋顶坍塌事故一周年之际,学生们从贝尔格莱德步行前往诺维萨德。小村庄的居民向他们提供水果。一张身着塞尔维亚传统帽子的男子拥抱戴头巾的穆斯林学生的照片在社交媒体上广泛传播——支持者们称其为1990年代毁灭性巴尔干战争后,年轻、进步的塞尔维亚的象征。

On the first anniversary of the roof collapse, the students walked from Belgrade to Novi Sad. People in small villages offered fruit. An image of a man with a traditional Serbian hat hugging a Muslim student in a headscarf flooded social media - which supporters hailed as an emblem of a young, progressive Serbia after the devastating Balkan wars of the 1990s.

在周日投票前夕,学生团体已接受选举舞弊识别培训,并表示计划派团队前往投票站监督。

Ahead of Sunday's vote, student groups have undergone training on election fraud and say teams plan to be present at polling stations.

抗议活动开始时,加夫里洛·安德里奇是一家大公司的软件工程师。作为一名业余摄影师,他见证了运动的壮大,最终辞去工作,成为该运动的非官方记录者。

Gavrilo Andric was a software engineer for a big company when the protests began. An amateur photographer, he watched the movement grow, eventually leaving his job to become its unofficial documenter.

“我终于意识到,在我们的社会中,有一群人看到了事物可以得到改善,并希望与其他人共同为此努力,”他告诉路透社。

"I finally realised that in our society we have a group of people who see things can be improved and want to work on it together with other people," he told Reuters.

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