一家知名研究机构表示，由于集团内部存在分歧且担心遭到报复，欧盟很可能避免与中国爆发全面贸易对抗。
The European Union is likely to avoid a full-blown trade confrontation with China due to internal divisions in the bloc and fear of retaliation, according to a prominent research firm.
此前有猜测称双方正处于贸易战边缘，欧洲政策制定者对即将到来的“中国冲击2.0”敲响警钟，并推动采取更强有力的措施，以保护本土生产商免受中国竞争的冲击。
The projection comes amid speculation that the two sides are on the brink of a trade war, with European policymakers raising the alarm about a looming “China shock 2.0” and pushing for stronger measures to protect domestic producers from Chinese competition.
但总部位于伦敦的凯投宏观周三在香港举办的一场活动上表示，由于欧洲成员国之间及内部缺乏共识，欧盟在与北京的任何对抗中都将“继续留手”。
But the bloc would “continue to pull its punches” in any confrontation with Beijing due to a lack of consensus among and within Europe’s member states, the London-based Capital Economics said at an event in Hong Kong on Wednesday.
该研究机构称，如果升级与中国的贸易摩擦，欧盟还“担心遭到报复”，并“仍抱有挽救过去曾惠及欧洲的基于规则的全球贸易体系的希望”。
The EU also had “concerns over retaliation” if it stepped up trade tensions with China, the research firm said, and held “lingering hopes to save the rules-based global trading system” that had helped Europe in the past.
凯投宏观亚太区主任马塞尔·蒂利安特表示：“至少在中方这边，有人担心欧洲将在限制中国出口方面采取更激进的做法，但我们的观点是，欧盟将继续遵循审慎的路线。”
“At least on the Chinese side, there’s some concern that Europe is going to be more aggressive towards restricting exports from China, but our view is it will continue to follow a cautious approach,” said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia Pacific for Capital Economics.
“欧洲在许多商品（包括关键矿产）方面高度依赖中国，且显然……担心遭到报复。”该机构在活动上发布的一份展望报告称，欧洲的贸易政策责任依然“分散”在欧盟本身与成员国政府之间。据蒂利安特介绍，例如由欧盟决定关税，而成员国制定投资政策。
“Europe is very dependent on China for lots of goods including critical minerals, and there’s a clear … concern about retaliation.”Responsibility for trade policy in Europe remains “split” between the EU itself and the governments of its member nations, the firm said in an outlook report circulated at the event. The EU decides tariffs, for example, while member nations chart investment policies, according to Thieliant.
本月初，中国与欧盟达成协议，限制中国混合动力汽车对欧洲的出口，该协议被广泛视为旨在缓解日益升级的双边贸易紧张局势。
China and the EU struck an agreement earlier this month to restrict Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to Europe, a deal that was widely seen as an attempt to take the heat out of rising bilateral trade tensions.
据报道，该协议将把混合动力汽车出口上限设定为每年35万辆，随后在未来四年内每年增加6%。这代表出货量大幅减少，欧盟原本预计今年将进口80万辆中国混合动力汽车。
The deal will reportedly involve hybrid car exports being capped at 350,000 vehicles per year, with the quota then rising by 6 per cent annually over the next four years. That represents a sharp reduction in shipments, with the EU originally projecting imports of 800,000 Chinese hybrid cars this year.
双方之间的紧张关系不断升级，主要是由于严重偏向中国的贸易失衡：根据欧盟委员会数据，去年欧盟对华贸易逆差每天超过10亿欧元（约11.2亿美元），且今年仍在持续扩大。
Tensions between the two sides have been growing mainly due to a stark trade imbalance favouring China: the EU’s trade deficit with China ran at over €1 billion (US$1.12 billion) per day last year, according to European Commission data, and has continued to rise this year.
过去两年里，欧盟日益加大对中国生产商征收关税和发起贸易调查的力度，一些人警告称，除非欧盟采取更紧急行动，否则欧洲工业可能很快就会遭受毁灭性打击。
The bloc has increasingly hit Chinese producers with tariffs and trade probes over the past two years, with some warning that European industry could soon be decimated unless the EU takes more urgent action.
根据该展望报告，中国将保持热衷出口的国家地位直到2030年，因为在国内激烈的价格竞争和疲弱需求背景下，中国视此方向“为政策成功的证据”。
China will remain an avid exporter nation until 2030 because it sees that direction “as evidence of policy success” at a time of cutthroat price competition and weak demand at home, according to the outlook report.
凯投宏观周三还预测，如果中国继续扩大出口份额（包括在欧洲），且西方因与中国竞争加剧而出现“民粹主义和民族主义政策”，未来两到三年内爆发“危机”的概率为50%。
Capital Economics also forecast on Wednesday a 50 per cent probability of a “crisis” erupting within two to three years if China continues to gain export share, including in Europe, and if “populist and nationalist policies” emerge in the West over increased competition with China.