（NewsNation）—— 随着多州提前投票已然展开，36 个州长席位将在 11 月 3 日的选票上决出胜负。决策台总部（Decision Desk HQ，以下简称 DDHQ）截至 10 月 18 日的预测显示，民主党在 36 场竞选中有 21 场占优，另有 4 场被评为胶着状态。以下是这 11 月值得关注的竞选。
(NewsNation) — With early voting underway in several states, 36 governorships are on the ballot Nov. 3. Decision Desk HQ's forecast (as of Oct. 18) has Democrats favored in 21 of the 36 races, with four rated as toss-ups. These are the races to watch this November.
亿万富翁医疗保健高管里克·杰克逊（Rick Jackson）投入近 1 亿美元自有资金赢得共和党提名，以 53% 对 47% 击败副州长伯特·琼斯（Burt Jones）。DDHQ 最新预测显示，杰克逊以 45% 对 55% 微弱落后民主党人凯莎·兰斯·博托姆斯（Keisha Lance Bottoms）。若当选，兰斯·博托姆斯将成为佐治亚州首位女性州长、首位黑人州长，也可能成为全美首位当选州长的黑人女性。她的胜选还将终结民主党自 1998 年罗伊·巴恩斯（Roy Barnes）以来在该州州长选举中的胜选干旱。
Billionaire health care executive Rick Jackson spent nearly $100 million of his own money to win the Republican nomination, beating Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, 53% to 47%. The latest DDHQ forecast shows Jackson narrowly behind Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, at 55% to 45%. If elected, Lance Bottoms would be Georgia's first female and first Black governor, and possibly the first Black woman elected to governor anywhere in the U.S. A win would make her the first Democrat elected governor since Roy Barnes in 1998.
根据 DDHQ 预测，民主党人艾米·阿克顿（Amy Acton）以 60% 的胜选概率领先共和党人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）。特朗普于 10 月 12 日在扬斯敦为拉马斯瓦米举行集会助选。前总统巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）计划于 10 月 24 日在克利夫兰与阿克顿及参议员候选人谢罗德·布朗（Sherrod Brown）同台造势。若阿克顿获胜，将终结民主党自 2006 年泰德·斯特里克兰（Ted Strickland）以来在俄亥俄州州长选举中的胜选干旱。
Democrat Amy Acton is favored with a 60%-win probability over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, according to DDHQ's forecast. Trump rallied for Ramaswamy in Youngstown Oct. 12. Former President Barack Obama is scheduled to campaign with Acton and Senate candidate Sherrod Brown in Cleveland Oct. 24. If she wins, Acton would be the first Democratic gubernatorial victory in Ohio since Ted Strickland in 2006.
内华达州是 DDHQ 评定的全美最胶着的州长竞选。共和党现任州长乔·隆巴多（Joe Lombardo）对阵民主党州检察长亚伦·福特（Aaron Ford），DDHQ 预测隆巴多以 51% 的胜选概率微弱领先。福特猛烈抨击现任者在生活成本问题上的表现及其与特朗普的关联。数据中心已成为核心议题，因该州 80% 的土地归联邦政府所有。
Nevada is DDHQ's closest governor's race in the country. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, with Lombardo holding a 51%-win probability, according to DDHQ. Ford has hammered the incumbent on the cost of living and his ties to Trump. Data centers have become a dominant issue, as 80% of the state's land is owned by the federal government.
州审计长罗布·桑德（Rob Sand）是爱荷华州唯一担任全州性职务的民主党人，该州自 2006 年切特·卡尔弗（Chet Culver）以来未再选出民主党州长。他将在 11 月面对共和党人扎克·拉恩（Zach Lahn）。DDHQ 预测桑德以 73% 的胜选概率领先。
State Auditor Rob Sand is the only Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, which hasn't elected a Democratic governor since Chet Culver in 2006. He faces Republican Zach Lahn this November. DDHQ's forecast has Sand with a 73%-win probability.
根据 DDHQ 预测，州务卿乔斯琳·本森（Jocelyn Benson）以 76% 的胜选概率领先共和党众议员约翰·詹姆斯（John James），有望接替因任期限制无法连任的州长格雷琴·惠特默（Gretchen Whitmer）。
Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican Rep. John James with a 76%-win probability to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, according to DDHQ's forecast.
她的竞选搭档、州参议院多数党领袖温妮·布林克斯将使其成为密歇根州历史上首个全女性竞选组合，而共和党自2014年以来未曾赢得该州州长职位。根据DDHQ的数据，州长凯西·霍楚尔以91%的获胜概率明显领先拿骚县县长布鲁斯·布莱克曼。两人于10月13日进行了唯一一次预定的辩论，在移民、特朗普和生活成本等问题上展开交锋。
Her running mate, state Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks, would make it Michigan's first all-female ticket, and Republicans haven't won the governorship since 2014. Gov. Kathy Hochul is a clear favorite over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with a 91% win probability, according to DDHQ. The two met Oct. 13 in their only scheduled debate, where they sparred over immigration, Trump and living costs.
民主党人哈维尔·贝塞拉将面对共和党人史蒂夫·希尔顿，角逐接替州长加文·纽森的职位。贝塞拉将成为19世纪末以来加利福尼亚州首位拉丁裔州长。自阿诺德·施瓦辛格以来，加利福尼亚州未曾选出过共和党州长。根据DDHQ的数据，贝塞拉以96%的获胜概率领先希尔顿。
Democrat Xavier Becerra faces Republican Steve Hilton to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom. Becerra would be California's first Latino governor since the late 1800s. No Republican has been elected governor in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger. Becerra holds a 96% win probability over Hilton, according to DDHQ.