
受全球人工智能股票热潮、资本规则放宽以及对冲基金贷款增加的推动,大型华尔街银行在今年前三个季度的股票交易业务已实现丰收——尽管还剩一个季度。
Fueled by the global boom in artificial intelligence stocks, relaxed capital rules and greater lending to hedge funds, big Wall Street banks have already had a banner year for equities trading — even with one quarter left to go.
根据公司文件披露,五大投资银行截至9月30日已产生约670亿美元的股票交易收入。这比该集团2025年全年赚取的金额多出70亿美元,而2025年本身就是创纪录的一年。
The five biggest investment banks have generated about $67 billion in equities revenue through Sept. 30, according to company filings. That is $7 billion more than what the group made during all of 2025, which itself was a record haul.
但在华尔街“三巨头”已瓜分了这注定成为行业最赚钱领域的最大份额:高盛、摩根大通和摩根士丹利今年以来合计获得520亿美元的股票交易收入,占总额近80%。
But it's Wall Street's Big Three that have captured the largest slice of what is shaping up to be the industry's most lucrative arena: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley have made a combined $52 billion in stock trading revenue so far this year, nearly 80% of the total.
富国银行银行业分析师迈克·梅奥对CNBC表示:“在AI大交易方面,‘三巨头’彼此视为主要竞争对手,基本就只有他们。他们最有利的定位让他们能够利用这波行情。”随着股市总市值膨胀,机构和散户投资者在股票、ETF和衍生品上的交易活动增加,华尔街银行正经历一波史诗级的爆发式盈利。推动这一活动的因素包括银行通过其主经纪业务向对冲基金提供的贷款,使后者能够放大押注。
"When it comes to the AI mega trade, the Big Three consider each other their main competitors, and that's pretty much it," Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo banking analyst, told CNBC. "They've been best positioned to take advantage of this market." Wall Street banks are experiencing an epic run of blockbuster profits as the total value of the stock market balloons and trading activity from institutional and retail investors rises across stocks, ETFs and derivatives. Helping drive this activity are the loans that the banks, through their prime brokerages, are extending to hedge funds so that they can amplify their bets.
主经纪业务——即为对冲基金提供保证金贷款、证券借贷和其他交易服务的业务——已成为关键战场和增长来源。“三巨头”的主经纪商是更大股票交易故事的核心,因为它们服务于跨市场、跨产品的最大型基金。
Prime brokerage — the business of providing hedge funds with margin loans, securities lending and other trading services — has become a key battleground and source of growth. The Big Three's prime brokers are central to the larger equities story because they serve the largest funds across markets and products.
银行高管上周表示,对冲基金为押注AI硬件、超大规模云服务商和芯片供应商而对杠杆的需求已达到新高度。
Demand for leverage to make bets on AI hardware, hyperscalers and chip suppliers has reached new heights, bank executives said last week.
在高盛,第三季度股票融资业务收入激增96%,达到创纪录的33.7亿美元。摩根大通和摩根士丹利未单独披露该数据,但表示看到了类似的趋势。
At Goldman Sachs, equities financing activities jumped 96% in the third quarter to a record $3.37 billion. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley don't break out that figure, but said they saw a similar dynamic.
“我喜欢你提到的‘对资本的无尽需求’这一观点。感觉非常贴切,”摩根大通首席财务官杰里米·巴纳姆在该行第三季度财报电话会上回应分析师关于融资需求的提问时表示。
"I like your 'insatiable demand for capital' point. That feels about right," JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum said on the bank's third-quarter conference call, responding to analyst questions about financing demands.
“在人工智能成为如此压倒性主题的当下……资金正通过各种不同机制被调用,”巴纳姆说。
"In this moment where AI is such an overwhelming theme ... there is capital being tapped through all kinds of different mechanisms," Barnum said.
华尔街高管表示,这种需求帮助将三大行的股票交易部门从周期性、交易驱动型业务转变为更持久、高利润率的放贷引擎。
That demand has helped transform equity desks at the Big Three from cyclical, transactional businesses into more durable, high-margin lending engines, Wall Street executives say.
华尔街巨头与包括美国银行和花旗集团在内的竞争对手之间的业绩差距,凸显了资本市场分化的加剧。
The performance gap between Wall Street's giants and rivals including Bank of America and Citigroup highlights a widening divide in capital markets.
“对客户而言,价值不仅仅在于单笔交易的价格,更在于覆盖面和连续性,”摩根大通全球股票业务主管拉希德·阿拉维在接受CNBC采访时表示。“你需要一家能在各产品线提供全套服务的交易商,并且希望这种服务能跟随你跨越地域。这在紧张的市场环境和波动时期尤为重要。” 执行数十亿美元规模的押注——比如对波动性AI股票或板块ETF的杠杆掉期交易——可能需要庞大的资产负债表。
"For clients, the value isn't just a price on one trade, it's coverage and continuity," Rachid Alaoui, JPMorgan global head of equities, told CNBC in an interview. "You want a dealer that can give you the full suite across products, and you want that service to travel with you across regions. That matters in stressed markets and periods of volatility." Executing multibillion-dollar bets, like leveraged swaps on volatile AI stocks or sector ETFs, can require an enormous balance sheet.
据交易高管透露,最大的银行能够承受潜在1亿美元的损失而不威胁到其季度业绩。规模较小或更专业化的银行无法承担这种单笔交易风险,被迫拒绝业务或让位。 美国主要券商还受益于包括瑞信在内的欧洲银行从股票业务撤退,彭博情报分析师赫尔曼·陈表示。
The biggest banks can absorb potential $100 million losses without threatening their quarters, according to trading executives. Smaller or more niche banks can't underwrite single-trade risks of that magnitude, forcing them to decline the business or cede U.S. prime brokers have also benefited from the retreat of European banks including Credit Suisse from the equities business, said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Herman Chan. "Prime is one of the ultimate scale businesses," Chan said.
Chan表示:“Prime是终极规模业务之一。“如果你拥有强大的股票业务,对冲基金会希望与你交易,因为你拥有与交易对手更大的交易机会池。”淘金热 尽管美国市场今年被软件和云计算巨头所席卷,但交易高管表示,股票领域增长最快的前沿在亚洲。
"If you have a strong equities franchise, the hedge funds will want to transact with you because you have a bigger pool of trading opportunities with counterparties." Picks and shovels While U.S. markets were swept up in software and cloud computing giants this year, trading executives say the fastest-growing frontier for equities was in Asia.
机构投资者涌入韩国和台湾,瞄准人工智能供应链的“淘金工具”:支持数据中心建设的存储芯片制造商和半导体制造商,Alaoui表示。
Institutional investors poured into South Korea and Taiwan, targeting the "picks and shovels" of the AI supply chain: the memory chipmakers and semiconductor manufacturers supporting data center construction, Alaoui said.
对于在东京、香港、韩国首尔和印度孟买均有业务的三大投行来说,亚洲交易是一座金矿。然而,交易高管指出,交易税和印花税计入顶线收入,人为夸大了亚洲Prime业务总额。
For the Big Three, with their footprints across Tokyo; Hong Kong; Seoul, South Korea; and Mumbai, India; the Asia trade was a goldmine. However, trading executives point out that transaction taxes and stamp duties are included in top-line revenue, artificially inflating Asia prime totals.
此外,对于股票交易收入应包含什么,也没有达成一致的定义,因此一些银行将结算服务等业务线计入股票交易总额,而另一些银行则不予计入,这使得难以进行可比较的比较。
There is also no agreed-upon definition of what equities trading revenue should include, so some banks include business lines like clearing services that others exclude from their stock trading totals, making apples-to-apples comparisons difficult.
但这并未改变该业务的整体势头,该业务受到始于2022年10月的股市反弹推动,当时OpenAI发布ChatGPT前几周。
But that doesn't change the overall momentum of the business, boosted by a stock rally that began in October 2022, weeks before OpenAI released ChatGPT.
“我们仍处于以股票为基础的世界,”摩根士丹利首席执行官泰德·皮克在该公司的财报电话会议上表示。“股票仍然是,在其他条件相同的情况下,有吸引力的资产类别。”尽管高盛和摩根士丹利的首席执行官表示,人工智能建设仍处于早期阶段,但分析人士表示,如果人工智能未能像人们期望的那样具有变革性,经济下滑可能会比其他银行更严重地影响这些银行。这一繁荣也引发了对对冲基金可能带来的风险的一些担忧。
"We're still in a stock-based world," Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said on the firm's earnings call. "Equities are still, all things being equal, the attractive asset class." While the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have said the AI buildout is still in its early years, if AI turns out to be not as transformative as hoped, a downturn could impact those banks more than others, analysts said. The boom has also drawn some concern over the possible risks posed by hedge funds.
国际货币基金组织(IMF)本月警告称,对冲基金不断增加的杠杆率、拥挤的交易头寸以及相互关联的抛售行为可能带来潜在的稳定风险。IMF估计,全球对冲基金的资产规模已达到13万亿美元。
The International Monetary Fund warned this month that growing leverage, crowded positions and correlated selling from hedge funds could create potential stability risks. The IMF estimated that global hedge fund assets had reached $13 trillion.
今年8月,摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙表示,整个行业的杠杆率“达到了历史最高水平”,但他并未认为这种风险足以对金融市场构成威胁。
In August, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said industrywide leverage was "the highest it's ever been," though he stopped short of calling the risk big enough to pose a threat to the financial markets.
华尔街的高管和分析师指出,今年夏天多家对冲基金的倒闭并未对该行业产生太大影响。虽然由前OpenAI研究员利奥波德·阿申布伦纳(Leopold Aschenbrenner)创立的对冲基金“Situational Awareness”引发了最多的媒体关注,但还有多家规模较小的对冲基金也遭遇了资产强制清算的情况。
Wall Street executives and analysts pointed out that the industry wasn't fazed by the meltdown of several hedge funds this summer. While the hedge fund run by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, Situational Awareness, garnered the most headlines, several smaller firms also experienced a forced unwinding.
摩根大通的阿拉维(Alaoui)表示:“目前,各大券商已经学会了如何应对追加保证金的要求,并能在市场走势对客户不利时迅速降低风险。”
Prime brokers have learned to leap on margin calls and quickly take down risk when markets move against clients, JPMorgan's Alaoui said.
“今年夏天,一些投资者被迫平仓;他们的杠杆率降低了,风险也随之减少,市场随后恢复了正常运行。”他告诉CNBC。
"In the summer, some investors had positions they were forced to unwind," he told CNBC. "They deleveraged, risk came down, and the market moved on."
另一个推动股市繁荣的因素是:特朗普政府的监管机构放宽了对美国大型银行的杠杆率限制,使这些银行有更多空间来发展那些依赖资产负债表扩张的业务(尤其是券商业务)。修订后的监管规定于2025年正式生效,各银行最早从2025年1月起就可以开始执行这些新规定。
'Known unknowns' Another factor driving the equities boom: Trump administration regulators have eased some leverage rules for the largest U.S. banks, giving them more room to expand balance-sheet-heavy businesses including prime brokerage. The revised rules were finalized in 2025, and banks were allowed to adopt them as early as January.
通过放宽那些原本对国债和券商贷款(这些贷款与高风险资产具有相同的抵押品性质)施加的严格资产负债表限制,监管机构为券商提供了更大的灵活性,使其能够更自由地调配资产负债表中的资本。
By easing the stringent balance-sheet caps that previously treated Treasurys and prime brokerage loans, which are collateralized, the same as riskier assets, regulators gave dealers greater flexibility to deploy balance-sheet capital.
斯坦福大学金融学教授、金融稳定领域的知名专家达雷尔·达菲表示:“资本确实下降了,所以不得不说,由于监管放松,这个体系在某种程度上杠杆率更高了。这不是个好主意,但还没有严重失衡。”他说,市场规模扩大和波动性上升可能带来更多交易、衍生品活动和杠杆,但这本身并不值得警惕。
"Capital did go down, so you have to say the system is somewhat more levered because of the relaxation in regulations," said Darrell Duffie, a finance professor at Stanford University and a leading expert on financial stability. "It's not a good idea, but it hasn't gotten dramatically out of whack." The larger size of the market and higher volatility can create more trading, derivatives activity and leverage, he said, but that's not inherently alarming.
华尔街高管也淡化了有关杠杆的担忧,指出他们利用抵押品和频繁的压力测试来提前防范问题。
Wall Street executives also downplayed concerns over leverage, pointing out that they use collateral and frequent stress testing to get ahead of problems.
摩根大通的巴纳姆上周表示:“对冲基金杠杆作为系统性风险的一个来源,很大程度上属于‘已知的未知’。这并不意味着它没有风险,但我们大致知道它是什么。”
"Hedge fund leverage as a contributor of risk to the system is very much in the category of known unknowns," JPMorgan's Barnum said last week. "It doesn't mean it's riskless, but we kind of know what it is."