Alpine Macro表示，即将到来的美国中期选举为股市酝酿了一场“卖谣言、买新闻”的行情。
The looming midterm elections in the U.S. set up stocks for a "sell the rumor, buy the news" event, according to Alpine Macro.
首席股票策略师尼克·乔尔吉称，在过去14个中期选举周期中，标普500指数在选举前九个月的平均回报率仅为1.6%。然而这一次，标普500指数已飙升11%。
Chief equity strategist Nick Giorgi said that in the last 14 midterm cycles, the S & P 500 averaged just a 1.6% return in the nine months leading up to the elections. This time, though, the S & P 500 has soared 11%.
此次选举前表现强劲，可能导致投资者在11月3日选举前削减股票敞口。
The strong lead-up to this election could lead investors to trim exposure to equities ahead of the Nov. 3 contest.
乔尔吉在给客户的一份报告中表示：“随着股市在中期选举期间进入下跌区域，预计会先苦后甜，结果分布偏向避险。”但他表示，任何潜在的下跌都将创造股票的买入机会。
"Expect pain before gain as equities move into the drop zone through U.S. midterms, with a risk-off skew of outcomes," Giorgi said in a note to clients. However, any potential dip would create a buying opportunity in stocks, he said.
乔尔吉说：“最大的问题是，这些上涨收益是在借来的时间上，还是只是在蓄势？我们认为是后者，而且历史支持继续上涨。
"The big question is, are these runup gains on borrowed time or just building? We believe the latter, and history supports continued gains.
自1970年以来，标普500指数在中期选举后的九个月里平均价格回报率为13.8%。”
Since 1970, the S & P 500 has generated an average price return of 13.8% in the nine months following midterms," Giorgi said.
预测市场平台Kalshi上的交易员认为，民主党有66%的机会获得参议院多数席位，有90%的可能性控制众议院。
Traders on prediction markets platform Kalshi see a 66% chance of Democrats gaining a majority in the Senate and a 90% probability they'll control the House.
诚然，赔率和博彩平台不使用传统政治民调的方法，因此不能替代政治民调。如果政府分裂，这也可能提振股市。
To be sure, odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls. If government is divided, that could also give equities a boost.
乔尔吉表示，当政府控制权在共和党和民主党之间分裂时，标普500指数的平均回报率为14%。
Giorgi said the S & P 500 averages a 14% return when government control is split between Republicans and Democrats.
披露：CNBC与Kalshi有商业关系，包括客户获取和少数股权投资。
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.