截至10月9日，一些民意调查预测市场显示，11月的中期选举可能会出现“蓝色浪潮”——民主党可能借此在众议院获得多数席位，并在参议院形成平局或取得控制权。
As of Oct. 9, some polls prediction markets are pointing toward a "blue wave" in November's midterm elections one that could see the Democrats take a majority in the House and create a tie or take control in the Senate.
一些投资者可能正在为此种可能性调整其投资组合，而另一些投资者则基于共和党近期的一系列胜利进行投资。这是因为许多市场观察人士认为，政治结果——例如哪个政党控制国会或赢得总统选举——可能对股票市场产生重大影响。
Some investors are likely calibrating their portfolios for that possibility, while others are investing based on a spate of Republican victories. That's because many market-watchers believe that political outcomes, like which party controls Congress or wins the presidency, can have meaningful impacts on the stock market.
但金融服务公司Carson Group的首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克（Ryan Detrick）表示，数据表明这些假设在很大程度上是错误的。
But data shows those assumptions are largely false, says Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, a financial services firm.
他说：“问题不在于红色，也不在于蓝色，而在于绿色。”尽管历史上不同政党的执政可能与更高的股市回报相关，但“某位总统或某个执政党本身，并不必然对市场有利或不利。”
"It's not about red, not about blue; it's about green," he says. Though different parties in power may historically correlate with higher stock market returns a given president or one party in charge "isn't necessarily good or bad for markets," he says.
他补充道：“当然，对基本面而言，真正重要的是经济、企业盈利、美联储政策以及通货膨胀——这些因素远比你的团队是否坐在白宫里要重要得多。”以下是数据所揭示的情况。
"What matters, of course, for fundamentals [is] the economy, earnings, Fed policy inflation— all that stuff matters a lot more than if your team is sitting in the White House or not," he adds.
中期选举年份对股市而言充满波动。从历史上看，美国整体股市在长期内呈上升趋势，并且在几乎每一届总统任期内都如此。根据Invesco的研究，自1957年以来，除了中途辞职的理查德·尼克松总统以及第二任期结束于全球金融危机中的乔治·W·布什总统之外，所有总统离任时，股市状况都比他们当选时更好。
Here's what the data shows. Midterm years are volatile for stocks Historically, the broad U.S. stock market has trended upward over long periods — and during almost every presidency. Since 1957, all but President Richard Nixon, who resigned midterm, and George W. Bush, whose second term ended amid the global financial crisis, left the market in better shape than when they were elected, according to Invesco research Despite the generally positive trend, Detrick notes that midterm years tend to be the most volatile in any given four-year presidential term, based on his analysis of S&P 500 returns from 1950 through 2025.
尽管总体趋势积极，但德特里克指出，根据他对1950年至2025年标普500指数回报的分析，中期选举年份往往是在任何一届四年总统任期内波动最大的时期。他的数据显示，与总统周期中的其他年份相比，整体股市在中期选举年份的平均跌幅最大。
The broad stock market has seen the largest dips, on average, during midterm years compared with any other in the presidential cycle, Detrick's data shows.
值得注意的是，Detrick表示，中期选举年份中出现的平均回调幅度更大，而在低点之后的12个月内，平均反弹幅度也最大。
Notably, the larger average pullback seen during midterm years comes with the largest average rebound in the 12 months following the low, Detrick says.
但这并不意味着你应该等到中期选举市场下跌时再趁机买入更多股票。专家建议不要试图预测市场走势，而是推荐持续投资于多元化的投资组合，并让复利效应随着时间推移发挥作用。
That doesn't mean you should wait for a midterm dip to scoop up some more stocks. Experts advise against trying to time the market and instead recommend consistently investing in a diversified portfolio and letting compound interest do its thing over time.
“人们总是在最糟糕的时机做出非理性的决策，而市场则会按照它自身的规律运行，”Detrick在谈到那些试图根据对政治结果的预期进行投资操作的投资者时说道。
"People make irrational decisions at the worst possible time, and then the market does what it does," Detrick says of investors trying to make money moves based on their expectations of political outcomes.
“市场并不总是那么合乎逻辑。”投资者之所以认为选举结果会影响股市，其实很容易理解。立法者通过的法律会直接影响上市公司的运营。举个极端的例子，如果国会颁布全国性的软饮料禁令，那么可口可乐和百事公司的股价很可能会下滑。
'Markets don't always make a lot of sense' It's easy to see why investors may think election results can impact the stock market. Legislators pass laws that can directly impact what publicly traded companies can do. If Congress instituted a nationwide soda ban, for an extreme example, it would be fair to assume Coca-Cola and PepsiCo stocks might fizzle out.
实际上，股市往往与政治保持相对独立的运行状态，Detrick指出。有两个现实中的例子可以说明这一点：当巴拉克·奥巴马当选总统时，投资者曾认为这对环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）类股票是个利好消息。但事实并非如此——以清洁能源指数基金Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF为例，在奥巴马任期结束期间，即2009年1月至2016年底，其价格下跌了近58%。而同期标普500指数则上涨了约140%。
In reality, the stock market has tended to operate fairly independently from politics, Detrick says. Two real-world examples: When President Barack Obama was elected, investors thought that would be good news for environmental, social and governance stocks That didn't really prove true — for example, the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF a clean energy index fund, saw its price fall by nearly 58% between January 2009 and the end of 2016 as Obama was leaving office. The S&P 500 rose roughly 140% over that time period.
更近一些的例子是，投资者曾认为唐纳德·特朗普总统对煤炭作为能源来源的支持会推动煤炭相关股票上涨。然而，在他第一个任期内，这种情况并未发生。VanEck Vectors Coal ETF在2020年底清盘前一直追踪煤炭行业公司，从2017年1月底到2020年1月底，该基金下跌了约37%，而此前新冠疫情已引发更广泛的市场下跌。同期标普500指数则上涨了约46%。“市场并不总是那么合乎逻辑，”Detrick 说道。
More recently, investors thought President Donald Trump was going to give coal-related stocks a boost, based on his support of coal as an energy source. That didn't happen during his first term. VanEck Vectors Coal ETF, which tracked coal industry companies before liquidating at the end of 2020, fell roughly 37% from the end of January 2017 through the end of January 2020, before the pandemic triggered a broader market downturn. The S&P 500 rose around 46% over that time period. "Markets don't always make a lot of sense," Detrick says.
他对标普 500 指数从 1951 年到 2025 年的年度回报分析显示，从历史上看，股市在民主党总统任期内表现更佳。根据 Detrick 的分析，在民主党总统任期内，标普 500 指数的年均回报率约为 12%，而在共和党总统任期内则约为 8%。但由共和党控制的国会通常表现优于由民主党领导的立法机构。
Historically, the stock market has performed better under Democratic presidents, his analysis of S&P 500 annual returns from 1951 through 2025 shows. The S&P 500 has averaged annual returns of around 12% under Democratic presidents compared with about 8% under Republicans, per Detrick's analysis. But Republican-controlled Congresses have typically outperformed Democrat-led legislatures.
基于历史回报数据，Detrick 发现，国会分裂——即一个党派控制众议院，另一个党派控制参议院——往往对股市最为有利。
A split Congress, when one party controls the House and the other party controls the Senate, tends to be the best for stocks, based on historical returns, Detrick finds.
他表示，这在一定程度上可归因于党派间的僵局。他说，无论哪个党派掌权，统一的国会通常意味着更多的支出。而联邦支出的增加虽然导致国家债务激增，但也可能给股市带来麻烦，因为它可能导致利率和国债收益率上升。
从这个意义上说，从股市的角度来看，“最理想的华盛顿，其实是一个什么都做不成的华盛顿，”他说道。
He attributes that, in part, to partisan gridlock, he says. A unified Congress generally means more spending he says, regardless of which party is in control. Increased federal spending, which has contributed to the ballooning national debt, can spell trouble for the stock market given it can lead to higher interest rates and Treasury yields.
尽管选民可能希望看到一个更统一的国会，能够迅速通过某些法案或议程，但正是政治过程中的缓慢推进，似乎对股市有利。
In that sense, from a stock market perspective, "The joke is 'the best Washington is one that can't get anything done,'" he says.
通过 CNBC Select 掌控你的资金。CNBC Select 在编辑上保持独立，并可能通过联盟合作伙伴的链接赚取佣金。
While voters may like to see a more unified Congress that quickly passes certain bills or agendas, the political grind that slows that process down appears to be good for the market.
当利率超过 7% 时，是否应该买房？以下是寻找优惠贷款的最佳机构。YNAB 创始人 Jesse Mecham 表示，有一件事能帮助你更好地管理资金。现在规划 2027 年暑假的 3 个理由。查看你是否符合 1.675 亿美元 Visa 和 Mastercard 和解金的资格，并了解如何避免跨行 ATM 费用。使用这些工具提升信用评分，为美联储下一次加息做好准备。
Take control of your money with CNBC Select CNBC Select is editorially independent and may earn a commission from affiliate partners on links. Should you buy a home when rates are over 7%? Here are the best lenders for finding a deal The 1 thing YNAB founder Jesse Mecham says can help you manage money better 3 reasons now is the right time to plan your 2027 summer holiday See if you qualify for the $167.5M Visa and Mastercard settlement and learn how to avoid out-of-network ATM fees Prep for the next Fed rate increase by boosting your credit score with these tools