西尔维·科尔贝 巴黎 —— 中间派的埃马纽埃尔·马克龙已进入其长达十年总统任期的最后阶段，而法国正面临一波激烈抗议浪潮，几乎没有迹象表明他能阻止一位来自政治极端派别的候选人继任。
SYLVIE CORBET PARIS — Emmanuel Macron, a centrist, has entered the final stretch of his decade-long presidency as France faces a wave of intense protests , with little sign he can prevent a candidate from the political extremes from succeeding him.
在10月17日计划举行的一场大型抗议活动前夕，他被拍到出席席琳·迪翁的演唱会。周一清晨，法国城市仍在余烟中，到处是骚乱留下的残骸，马克龙却飞往国外以敲定一项有利的燃料供应协议。
On the eve of a major protest planned for Oct. 17, he was photographed at a Celine Dion concert. Early Monday morning, with French cities still smoldering and littered with wreckage from the riots , Macron was flying abroad to secure a favorable fuel supply deal.
极右翼和极左翼的总统竞争者抓住骚乱机会攻击他。马克龙本人承认在规划和情报收集方面存在“失误”。
Presidential contenders on the far right and far left seized on the unrest to attack him. Macron himself acknowledged “failures” in planning and intelligence gathering.
根据宪法规定不得寻求第三个连续任期，这位中右翼总统在危机爆发时的支持率已降至2017年就职以来的最低点 —— 甚至低于2018年爆发的针对社会不公和不平等的“黄马甲”抗议期间记录的水平。
Constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term, the centre-right president entered the crisis with his popularity at its lowest since he took office in 2017 — below even the levels recorded during the “yellow vest” protests against social injustice and inequality that began in 2018.
他尚未背书任何候选人，其背书能产生多大影响尚不清楚。民调显示，温和派候选人大幅落后于极右翼和极左翼竞争者。
He has yet to endorse a candidate, and it is unclear how much influence his backing would carry. Polls show moderates trailing far-right and far-left contenders.
随着周四和周六计划举行进一步抗议活动，以下是对法国政治版图的梳理，以及候选人们如何为接替马克龙进行布局。
With further protests planned for Thursday and Saturday, here is a look at France’s political landscape and how candidates are positioning themselves to succeed Macron.
被视为明年大选热门人选的极右翼领导人玛丽娜·勒庞，试图将对骚乱的愤怒转化为对其总统竞选的支持，将自己定位为她所描述的“无能政府”的替代选择。
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, seen as the favorite in next year’s election, has sought to turn anger over the riots into support for her presidential bid, presenting herself as the alternative to a government she described as powerless.
“我们正面对一个正在崩溃的国家，”勒庞周三对法国资讯电台（FranceInfo）表示。“我们正面对一个进入倒计时的政府，它实际上已失去控制力，无法再维持控制，”她说，并将暴力归咎于“极左暴徒”和“来自郊区的抢劫者”。今年早些时候，巴黎上诉法院缩短了曾威胁其总统雄心的竞选公职禁令，为勒庞参选铺平了道路。民调机构Ifop总干事弗雷德里克·达比（Frédéric Dabi）表示，这使她成为“唯一能从这一事件中获益的候选人”。他补充说，这让人难以想象她会无法进入大选决选轮。
“We are facing a state that is collapsing,” Le Pen told broadcaster FranceInfo on Wednesday. “We are facing a government in its final days that has, in reality, lost its grip and can no longer maintain control,” she said, blaming the violence on “far-left rioters” and “looters from the suburbs.”Earlier this year, a Paris appeals court cleared a path for Le Pen to run by shortening a ban on seeking public office that had threatened her presidential ambitions. And now she is “the only candidate to capitalize on this event,” according to Frédéric Dabi, director general of Ifop, a pollster. That makes it hard to imagine her failing to reach the election’s runoff, he added.
勒庞领导的国民联盟党主席若尔丹·巴德拉（Jordan Bardella）呼吁民众将愤怒转化为选票，并承诺如果勒庞当选，将“恢复治安”。他和勒庞呼吁增加警力装备和人员，并对暴徒实施更严厉的判刑。当局多次将暴力归咎于“极左激进分子”和投机作案的罪犯。
Jordan Bardella, president of Le Pen’s National Rally party, has urged citizens to channel their anger into votes and promised, if she is elected, “to reestablish security.”He and Le Pen have called for more police equipment and personnel and tougher sentences for rioters. Authorities have repeatedly blamed “far-left radicals” and opportunistic criminals for the violence.
极左总统候选人让-吕克·梅朗雄（Jean-Luc Mélenchon）支持抗议运动，同时谴责抢劫和破坏行为。他指责政府通过其警务执法和未能回应示威者诉求而激化矛盾。
Far-left presidential contender Jean-Luc Mélenchon has backed the protest movement while condemning looting and vandalism. He has accused the government of inflaming tensions through its policing and failure to address demonstrators’ demands.
抗议者要求提高工资和养老金、改善医疗和其他公共服务，并增加教育经费。
Protesters are calling for higher wages and pensions, better healthcare and other public services, and more funding for education.
梅朗雄周六参加了穿过巴黎的和平游行，因批评警方而面临对手指责其为暴力找借口。
Mélenchon, who joined Saturday’s peaceful march through Paris, has faced accusations from opponents that his criticism of police excuses violence.
他的政党“不屈法兰西”（France Unbowed）还支持始于9月中旬的学生抗议和高中封锁行动，支持增加教师、改善设施和修改大学招生制度等诉求。
His party, France Unbowed, has also backed student protests and high school blockades that began in mid-September, supporting demands for more teachers, better facilities and changes to university admissions.
观察人士表示，现在还无法确定梅朗雄是否会获得更多支持或失去支持。由极左翼激进分子引发的暴力事件可能会加深温和选民的疑虑；而他对抗议者要求的坚定支持，则可能增强他在左翼选民中的吸引力。
Observers said it was too early to tell whether Mélenchon would gain or lose support. Violence attributed to radical far-left activists could deepen reservations among moderate voters, while his prominent support for protesters’ demands could strengthen his appeal on the left.
政治分析师也指出，像上周末发生的暴力事件对选举结果的影响需要通过一段时间的观察才能真正显现出来。
Political analysts also stress that electoral effects from events like last weekend’s violence must be measured over time.
在上周末的暴力事件发生之前的民意调查中，勒庞明显处于领先地位，梅朗雄排在第二位；不过他与那些立场较为温和的候选人之间的竞争依然非常激烈。
Polls before Saturday’s violence and the only one conducted afterward show Le Pen as the clear front-runner, while placing Mélenchon in second position, though he remained in a close contest with more moderate contenders.
达比在Sud Radio节目中表示：“在她之后，一切还都充满变数，没有任何结果是可以确定的。”他强调，有三位候选人都有机会进入第二轮选举。
“Behind her, nothing is set in stone, nothing is guaranteed,” Dabi said on Sud Radio, stressing that three candidates appear in a position to reach the runoff.
此次总统选举的候选人阵容中包含了多位中间派人士，其中包括两位由马克龙任命的前总理。本月早些时候，社会党及其盟友选择了这位中间偏左的欧洲议会议员作为他们的总统候选人。
The broad field of candidates features several centrists, including two former prime ministers appointed by Macron. Earlier this month, socialists and their allies chose a center-left European Parliament lawmaker as their presidential candidate.
目前还没有任何候选人能够在民意调查中占据明显优势。总统选举的第一轮投票定于4月18日举行，第二轮投票则安排在5月2日。
None has managed to gain traction in opinion polls. The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for April 18 and a runoff on May 2.