美国宪法第二十二修正案规定，总统不得当选超过两届。随着特朗普总统在2024年赢得连任，他将不具备再次参选的资格。
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution prevents presidents from being elected to more than two terms. With President Trump winning re-election in 2024, he will not be eligible to run again.
这一现实让民主党人和共和党人都在自问：“特朗普主义”能否在他退出政治舞台后存续下去。另一个常被争论的问题是：谁将继承特朗普的基本盘？他的继任者能否维持特朗普对共和党和“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动的掌控力。
This reality has both Democrats and Republicans asking themselves whether “Trumpism” will survive once he exits the political stage. The second question often debated is who will inherit Trump’s base, and can his successor sustain Trump’s hold on the Republican Party and the MAGA movement.
最有可能继承特朗普基本盘的人选是副总统J·D·万斯。在许多方面，万斯与MAGA运动的契合度甚至高于特朗普本人——最显著的体现在外交政策、美以关系以及宗教在国家公共事务中的作用上。
The person most likely to inherit Trump’s base is Vice President JD Vance. In many ways, Vance is more aligned with the MAGA movement than Trump himself — most notably on foreign policy, U.S. relations with Israel and the role of religion in our nation’s public affairs.
2025年9月，“转折点美国”（Turning Point USA）创始人查理·柯克遇刺身亡后，是万斯主导了对柯克的悼念，在全国面前界定并捍卫了他的基督教民粹主义叙事。
After the assassination of Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk in September of 2025, it was Vance who took the leading role in eulogizing Kirk, both defining and defending his Christian populist narrative before the country.
任职期间，万斯努力与一批MAGA相关的倡导组织、智库、网红、播客主持人和捐赠者建立并维持紧密的工作关系。他也是极少数公开拒绝谴责或切割与塔克·卡尔森友谊的共和党高层民选官员之一；卡尔森深受MAGA拥趸喜爱，但持续发表关于以色列和美国犹太人的煽动性言论。
During his tenure in office, Vance has worked hard to develop and maintain close working relationships with a network of MAGA associated advocacy organizations, think tanks, influencers, podcasters, and donors. He is also one of the few high-profile Republican elected officials who has refused to publicly condemn or disavow his friendship with Tucker Carlson, a MAGA favorite who continues to make incendiary remarks about Israel and American Jews.
尽管万斯在非法移民、贸易、关税等国内议题上与特朗普的政策主张一致，但他对美国长期的全球安全关系似乎持更怀疑的态度。他经常批评北约，且鲜少公开表态支持防卫台湾免受中国大陆潜在入侵。
Although Vance shares Trump’s policy prescriptions on illegal immigration, trade, tariffs, and other domestic issues, he seems far more skeptical of long-standing U.S. global security relationships. He often criticizes NATO and has expressed little public support for defending Taiwan from a potential Chinese invasion.
他最近也开始在以色列和伊朗战争问题上与特朗普保持距离，并且一直是政府内部对美国卷入乌克兰事务的持续批评者。事实上，与特朗普不同，万斯对利用美国军事力量和外交手段在加沙、乌克兰和波斯湾谈判达成和平协议表现出的兴趣甚微。
He has also recently begun to distance himself from Trump on Israel and the war in Iran, and he has been a consistent critic within the administration of U.S. involvement in Ukraine. In fact, Vance has shown little interest, unlike Trump, in using U.S. military power and diplomacy to negotiate peace deals in Gaza, Ukraine, and in the Persian Gulf.
作为一位保守派天主教皈依者，万斯比特朗普更有可能大力扩大宗教自由保护，并更愿意接纳共和党内的生命权倡导者，而特朗普自首个任期以来一直与这些人保持距离。核心问题是，万斯能否通过修正其政策关注点和方向来继承“让美国再次伟大”运动——还是说，没有特朗普那超大号的个人魅力，特朗普主义根本无法维持和发展。
A conservative Catholic convert, Vance is also more likely than Trump to assertively expand religious liberty protections and be more receptive to pro-Life advocates within the Republican Party, which Trump has kept at a distance since his first term in office. The central question is whether Vance can inherit the MAGA movement by modifying its policy interests and direction — or whether Trumpism is impossible to maintain and grow without Trump’s own super-sized personality.
要回答这个问题，万斯应当考察另一位西方民主国家的天才民粹主义政治家，是如何不仅继承了一位超凡魅力政治家的政治运动，还通过将其变为己有而实现了该运动的转型。
To answer that question, Vance should examine how another gifted populist politician in a Western democracy was able not only to inherit a political movement from a larger-than-life politician, but to transform that movement by making it her own.
时年31岁，焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼成为已故总理西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼领导的意大利政府中最年轻的部长。贝卢斯科尼是一位亿万富翁商人，创建并领导了保守派政党“前进意大利党”。
At 31 years old, Giorgia Meloni became the youngest minister in the Italian government of the late Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, a billionaire businessman who created and led the conservative Forza Italia Party.
1994年至2011年间，贝卢斯科尼三度出任总理，其个性与政治主导了意大利生活。他巨大的自我和非传统的执政方式，使他成为意大利右翼的英雄、左翼的恶棍，比任何其他现代意大利政治家都更深地分裂了这个国家。他是特朗普之前的特朗普。
Berlusconi’s personality and politics dominated Italian life between 1994 and 2011, when he served three stints as prime minister. His massive ego and unconventional methods of governing made him a hero to the Italian right and a villain to the left, dividing the country more than any other modern Italian politician. He was Trump before Trump.
贝卢斯科尼倒台后，梅洛尼意识到自己无法复制他的个人崇拜。她迅速认识到，为了取得成功，保守运动既需要改变，也需要重塑品牌。
After the fall of Berlusconi, Meloni knew that she could not duplicate his cult of personality. She quickly recognized that the conservative movement needed both to change and to be rebranded for her to succeed.
2012年，梅洛尼脱离导师贝卢斯科尼及其保守派政党“自由人民党”，共同创立了民粹主义政党“意大利兄弟党”。十年后，梅洛尼当选总理。
After leaving her mentor Berlusconi and the conservative People of Freedom Party in 2012, Meloni co-founded the populist Brothers of Italy Party. Ten years later, Meloni was elected prime minister.
她迅速采取务实的执政风格，彻底将自己与贝卢斯科尼那种自我膨胀、超乎寻常的个性区分开来。与此同时，她推行民粹主义政策议程，主张终结开放式移民政策、减少干预外国冲突、提供言论自由法律保护，并拒绝更具侵入性的欧盟官僚体系。她还开始公开捍卫传统婚姻、天主教会在公共事务中的作用以及意大利的国家主权。
She quickly adopted a common-sense governing style to forever separate herself from the Berlusconi’s ego-fueled and larger-than-life personality. She did this while embracing a populist policy agenda which included an end to open immigration, less intervention in foreign conflicts, free-speech legal protections, and rejection of a more intrusive EU bureaucracy. She also began to publicly defend traditional marriage, the role of the Catholic Church in public affairs, and Italy’s national sovereignty.
贝卢斯科尼和其他右翼政党往往忽视这些文化议题，更倾向于专注于自由市场经济议程。梅洛尼的创新在于，她熟练地将意大利右翼从贝卢斯科尼的交易型政治转变为一个由政策而非个性定义的民粹主义运动。
Berlusconi and other right-wing parties had often ignored these cultural issues, preferring to focus on their free-market economic agenda. Meloni’s innovation was to skillfully transform the Italian right from Berlusconi’s transactional politics to a populist movement defined by policy rather than personality.
梅洛尼面临的最大问题是，她永远无法像贝卢斯科尼那样凭借个人魅力主导新闻周期或操控政治话语。梅洛尼通过将其直截了当、不讲空话的执政风格，与一个接纳了贝卢斯科尼许多经济和反移民立场、同时增添了更广泛宗教与文化叙事以直接迎合意大利民族自豪感的民粹主义政策议程相结合，解决了这一问题。这一策略奏效显著，团结了右翼阵营，使梅洛尼成为现代意大利历史上最受欢迎、最具影响力的总理之一。
The biggest problem confronting Meloni was that she could never dominate the news cycle or manipulate the political conversation through the force of her personality the way Berlusconi did. Meloni solved this problem by marrying her straightforward, no-nonsense governing style to a populist policy agenda that embraced many of Berlusconi’s economic and anti-immigration positions, while adding a broader religious and cultural narrative to her politics, to appeal directly to Italian national pride. The strategy has worked brilliantly, uniting the right and making Meloni one of the most popular and influential prime ministers in modern Italian history.
万斯在许多方面与梅洛尼处境相似。要复制她的成功，他需要做一些类似她所做的事情。特朗普那超凡脱俗的个性、非传统的政治手段以及交易式的执政风格，与贝卢斯科尼长期执政的特点极为相似。而特朗普，就像贝卢斯科尼一样，将是一个难以超越的前任。
Vance is similarly situated to Meloni in many ways. And to replicate her success, he will need to do something like what she has done. Trump’s larger-than-life personality, unconventional politics and transactional style of governing closely mimics Berlusconi’s long tenure. And Trump, like Berlusconi, will be a hard act to follow.
然而，万斯和梅洛尼有许多共同点。他们都拥有直接、直截了当的执政风格。他们也都拥抱相似的民粹主义政策议程，重点在于遏制非法移民，对“自由贸易”和全球机构保持健康的怀疑态度，不愿卷入外国战争，对欧盟的安全和经济政策持怀疑态度，并坚信维护西方文明和国家主权是两国的重要目标。
However, Vance and Meloni have a great deal in common. They both share a direct and straightforward governing style. They also embrace a similar populist policy agenda that focuses on stopping illegal immigration, a healthy mistrust of “free trade” and global institutions, a reluctance to get involved in foreign wars, a skepticism of EU security and economic policies, and a foundational belief that preserving Western civilization and national sovereignty are important goals for both countries.
万斯能否像梅洛尼在贝卢斯科尼时代结束后继承并重塑意大利右翼那样，在特朗普之后获得同样的成功？特朗普和“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）运动似乎愿意给万斯这个机会。最近的民调显示，他是2028年共和党总统提名的领跑者，大幅领先现任国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥，后者分享特朗普更激进的外交政策议程。
Will Vance enjoy the same post-Trump success as Meloni has after inheriting and reshaping the Italian right in the post-Berlusconi era? Trump and the MAGA movement seem willing to give Vance that opportunity. Recent polls suggest that he is the leading candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2028, well ahead of current Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who shares Trump’s more aggressive foreign policy agenda.
万斯的成败将取决于他自身的政治技巧以及特朗普任期结束时选民的心态。但成功继任一位超凡领袖的选举蓝图，已由梅洛尼为他绘就。
Vance’s success or failure will be determined by his own political skills and the electorate’s mood at the end of Trump’s term. But the electoral blueprint for successfully following a larger-than-life leader has already been laid out for him by Meloni.
弗兰克·迪富尔维奥是一名专业作家和独立记者，现居并工作于意大利和弗吉尼亚北部。
Frank DiFulvio is a professional writer and independent journalist who lives and works in Italy and in Northern Virginia.